Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs SDP (ND) – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 28 pitches.
It came out of nowhere. Shohei Ohtani returned from his TJS rehab to open for the Dodgers Monday night and while we were told he tossed 50 pitches in his last bullpen, he lasted just one frame: 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 28 pitches. There’s some good, some bad, some unlucky, and some…anxiety.
The good: He’s throwing 100 mph fastballs, sitting 99 mph on the four-seamer, and featuring 1.7 HAVAA at 6.8 feet of extension. That outlines a successful heater when elevated, even at its sub 14″ vert that looks a touch like a cutter in the way it drops. In addition, the sweeper is alive and well at a whopping 86/87 mph, which is sure to miss many bats. 36% usage is back to the old days and it was moreso following his first batter.
The bad: The fastball locations need some work. There were some gorgeous front-hip sinkers to LHB, but it’s not quite the plan of attack you want to see – surprise down-and-in heaters is good, but all were down there. In addition, the sole splitter thrown was horrible and I’m not sure if the sweeper can be the #2 pitch here, too. We didn’t see a cutter in the mix, but it was just 28 pitches and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a cutter or gyro slider appear when he’s stretched out further. In addition, as we usually see from post-TJS arms, command is going to be the thing that takes a moment.
The unlucky: A low sinker for a hit, a wild pitch, and a sac fly converted a run. So it goes.
The anxiety: Those in One Ohtani leagues (two-way), keep using him as a hitter. For two Ohtani Leagues (DH and SP are separate players), things are rough. He was on the IL prior and now Ohtani is forced to live on your bench as you wait for him to get stretched out. It does seem as though it won’t take too long for him to go five frames in outings after we were told him could “go as long as three” in this one, and I’d generally believe you need to hold and wait as he’s too helpful for your teams post-ASB, if not earlier. Hopefully the smaller outings help the strikeouts and ratios enough along the way.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs LAA (ND) – 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
Schmidt squared up against a ton of RHB and promptly flooded the zone with sweepers and cutters to major success. By the way, it does look like there were two different sliders in there, one with more two-plane movement than the other – and I’m curious what is actually going on there. New slider incoming? Regardless, you should feel safe with Schmidt moving forward, blame the sterile Yankee offense for his lack of Win.
José Soriano (LAA) @ NYY (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 101 pitches.
WHOA. The sinker command was good, but not quite as elite as his previous start and it led to all six of his hits allowed. The king here was the curve, via 41% CSW and 7/29 whiffs, allowing Soriano to mask the fact he still doesn’t have a great feel for his slider or splitter. Yes, there was a bit of Koufax at play here, but I guess we’re going to lean into Soriano against the Astros up next.
Lucas Giolito (BOS) @ SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 91 pitches.
Ayyyy, it worked! Giolito even forced a NOBLETIGER onto the Mariners, striking out three straight after loading the bases with no outs in the third, ending on a horrible 82 mph “something” (curve?) that Raleigh flailed at as it nearly hit the infield grass, bouncing toward the plate. Anyway, the skills overall were exactly what we were hoping for after he outlined his efforts to make mechanical adjustments: 94/95 mph four-seamers with 6.8 feet of extension and 18″ of vert that lived upstairs incessantly (we love that), changeups constantly down, and a better slider that returned 5/25 whiffs. This wasn’t as good of a performance as the line would suggest – sliders returned just a 52% strike rate + both the breaker and changeup were non-competitive more than I’d like – but the foundation of his heater looks to be here to stay as he works out everything else. I wish he didn’t have to call Fenway his home and I’m sure to be a little worried about his start next week hosting Toronto, but he’ll be in Oracle Park against the Giants on Sunday and you better sign. Me. Up.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) vs BAL (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 11 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 98 pitches.
THERE HE IS. Enjoy that King Cole and you better start believing in Pepiot. The four-seamer was dope upstairs, the changeup fell underneath, and the slider + cutter? 92% strikes across 25 thrown. They look like the same pitch to me, personally, though a little more depth was applied to RHB than LHB, and he got that cutter upstairs a ton to LHB for the Canibal McSanchez, which confounded Orioles batters with its horizontal bend at just four mph slower. You know what’s even wilder? He still doesn’t have a breaker to go down-and-away to RHB effectively. Imagine if he unlocks that too…
Mitch Spence (ATH) vs HOU (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 84 pitches.
Whoa, 84 pitches! And legit cutter, curve, and slider command to RHB! He had a mix of Koufax with more hits than we’d like but getting outs in play to prevent runners from scoring, and I’m happy to see the cutter sitting above 91 mph instead of 90 mph across the increased workload. There’s some tweaking to be made against LHB (donut command of down the pipe or off the edges) and the sinker is a bit unruly (3/11 strikes ain’t it), but I’m a bit intrigued. Bad news for you deep leaguers: His spot in the rotation is hazy, though J.T. Ginn pitched out of the pen after Spence here, but let’s say it’s a six-man with Spence involved. Spence would get LHB-heavy Cleveland (not fun given his questionable approach we just saw) followed by the Yankees. I don’t think you want that.
Ryan Gusto (HOU) @ ATH (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
In Sacré Verde?! That’s a Gold Star for you, Gusto. This was easily the best start I’ve ever seen from him, displaying absurd BSB command to both sides of the plate. Four-seamers lived upstairs and set the foundation at 32% CSW and 73% strikes (ignore the HR on a 3-2 pitch, that was a rare poor down-and-in heater to Bleday), while the sinker appeared for plenty of outs and good 16-17″ of movement down-and-in to RHB, with changeups and curves generally living down to LHB. The slowball was the biggest surprise to me with 75% strikes, while the curve oddly failed to return a whiff despite some pristine locations under the Nitro Zone to LHB. In short, if he can replicate this, I’m so in. However, this kind of command is uncommon, especially from a rookie. In addition, he’ll get the Angels, Cubs, and Dodgers as his next three outings and I just can’t take the risk. Maybe against the Angels, but the odds are against him. I wish I could believe he’ll have the same feel for his pitches moving forward, but even then, is it enough for the Cubs and Dodgers?
Mick Abel (PHI) @ MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 77 pitches.
I’m a fan of Abel, though I may be a little too optimistic that he’ll break out during the small runway he has in the Phillies rotation (he’s the odd man out when Nola returns + Painter’s callup). The skills are fun with actual fastball command (96 mph four-seamers are up with 1.3 HAVAA and 16-17″ of vert, sinkers are generally on the inner half to RHB, though that can be better), but for him to take the leap forward, he needs more from the secondaries. The curve and slider each lived around the zone (three curves were super close and could have been strikes/chases), though they combined for 1/27 whiffs as the slider was not a pitch to fear in the slightest. Meanwhile, the changeup had a mind of its own and somehow earned two whiffs in the five chaotic ones thrown. He’ll be tested now with the Mets and Atlanta, which I think I’m fine with given the effective heaters, though it could be rough if he doesn’t nail down at least one of the breakers. He has legitimate Top 30 SP talent if one (or both!) of those breakers becomes a stud pitch, and given the fastball command he already has, I’m inclined to believe he’ll get there.
Ben Casparius (LAD) @ SDP (W) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 62 pitches.
You thought I’d have him in the top, didn’t you? I took the extra time to make this for y’all and to ensure you can read this in the game log. Those reading this on Ben’s player page now, YOU’RE WELCOME. Ahem. Casparius came in with two out in the second and was relieved after a HR and double with one out in the sixth (weird, I know), allowing him to earn the dub. It wasn’t the most impressive outing, though the solo shot was a 3-2 96 mph heater up-and-away to Machado that went oppo taco (whatareyagonnado) and a meh cutter to Bogaerts following a walk led to a double in the gap. The skills were heavily present, though there’s work to be done. The four-seamer was upstairs and fantastic at 66% strikes, 96 mph, 17.5″ of vert, and 35% CSW and RHB had trouble with the pitch paired with a legit sweeper (hey, that’s new!) that was spotted well. LHB were served more curves than sweepers, with cutters sprinkled to both batters, and both of those pitches show promise (91/92 mph cutters with 11″ drop differential than the heater is my JAM + legit depth on the curve at 81 mph), and I look forward to seeing them fleshed out over longer games. We’re only at 62 pitches now as the Dodgers plan to stretch him out further and I kinda dig the piggy-back of Ohtani and Casparius. It grants a higher chance of a win for Casparius and when the time comes to push Ohtani, Casparius should be ready to start on his own. I’d hold for the Nationals up next, where he’ll need to lean more into the curveball and cutter. Good, let him figure it out.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs PHI (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 100 pitches.
Oh snap! That’s three games of production from Alcantara, this time coming against an actually good lineup. We’re making progress, though there are still some kinks to iron out. First, 100 pitches for five frames is not the inefficient arm of old, rooted in a 25% foul ball rate that stems mostly from his changeup (8/17!). That’s supposed to be the out pitch and going 1/17 outs is not the Sandy we know and love. It was better this time, but not quite there yet. I was more impressed by his ability to throw effective strikes with his slider (10/23 called strikes!), though I think he wants that 90 mph 3-2 slider back that landed in the seats. Stupid LHB and their Nitro Zone down-and-in. I also didn’t see fastballs get inside to RHB nearly as much as we want, though I did enjoy seeing an effort to keep his four-seamer upstairs more than usual + he featured far more 99/100 pitches than before. Finally, the curve is looking like an effective addition to the arsenal, even if it isn’t the filthiest of filth. A 64% strike rate with 0/14 hits is fantastic for a #5 pitch. In the end, this is progress, but looking like a low-end Holly at best – not a MUST ROSTER arm. He’ll continue to be challenged against Atlanta and @ARI and here’s to another step forward.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 84 pitches.
I placed Gilbert in the Cherry Bomb Tier 4 of The List, noting that I have been a little too aggressive with arms returning from the IL this year and I have to wait at least three games to give him his AGA tag back. That sure feels silly after this Gallows Pole, doesn’t it? Extension and velocity were there, the slider went 78% strikes, and he even had four strikeouts on the splitter. BUT I MUST. After all, he’ll be away from @TEA and in Wrigley next. Let’s see if he’s still an ace when not in his home park and facing a Devers-less Red Sox crew.
Jake Irvin (WSN) vs COL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.
It was a stream against Rockie Road and it worked for a PQS. Thanks Irvin, now go back to the wire please, k thx.
Carson Palmquist (COL) @ WSN (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches.
Womp womp. I saw this as a dark horse stream as a LHP with 7.4 feet extension against the Nationals, but they batted from the right-side plenty and his heater was the only reliable strike pitch to them, which was promptly blasted. Oh, and the cutter he introduced? Yeaaaah, he needs to work on that command a touch. If only he were drafted by another team….Sigh.
Dylan Cease (SDP) @ LAD (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 101 pitches.
Ah yes, the old Cherry Bomb nature that not only exists start-to-start, but inning-by-inning. He was Singled Out in the fourth frame, with three consecutive two-out singles driving in three runs and that’s your ball game. The other four innings? Pfffft, no problem. He even struck out the first five batters he faced. You knew the deal when you drafted him and while the ratios are far worse than expected, recognize that he’s allowed more than 3 ER just twice all year and two starts equate to 15 ER including this one. It’s not nearly as bad as you think.
Zach Eflin (BAL) @ TBR (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 12 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 76 pitches.
Oh. After flexing legit command since returning from the IL, Eflin last it all in a hurry. This was horrific command, which led to getting Singled Out with two HRs, but honestly, he deserved to allow all this hard contact. And now it’s the Yankees? Yeeeeeesh. He’s a vet and will likely make the adjustment necessary, but maybe take one more start off, you know? He’ll get the Rays again. REVENGE GAME.
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Game of the Day
Walker Buehler vs. Bryan Woo – I’d love to see an enraged Woo eager to reclaim his AGA status, while I expect we’re going to see a mercurial Buehler over the next few starts as he figures out an approach that works for him.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
