The Cavs have held the league’s best record for most of the season, until recently.
After rattling off their second 15+ game winning streak this year, Cleveland has gone 4-5 since, including a four-game losing streak. It’s never a good sign to struggle just a few weeks before the playoffs start, but at the same time, this could just be caused by the doldrums of a long season — the 2022 Warriors and 2023 Nuggets also went through similar stretches before storming their way to championships.
So, is this something, or nothing? As usual, the answer lies somewhere in between.
How concerning is Cleveland’s recent slide?
The simplest explanation for the Cavs’ recent struggles is their shooting luck finally running out. Since their winning streak was snapped on March 16th, opponents have shot 39.7% from three against them — the 9th-highest mark league-wide over that span. More worryingly, their own percentages have plummeted, as Cleveland’s making just 33.5% of their attempts, ranking 26th. The Cavs were bound to drop off at some point given that they were making an absurd 39.5% of their three up until that point (1st), and no team has shot over 40% since the COVID-shortened seasons.
Surprisingly, opponents made 36.4% of their threes up until that March 16th cut-off, which ranked 15th. Given that teams generally don’t have much control over defending the three, Cleveland maintaining a top-10 defense throughout the season while not receiving opponent shooting luck is a testament to their strong defense, and it indicates that they can continue winning even when shots are falling against them. In other words, the Cavs’ success is predicated more on their own percentages — something that they can control.
With that said, I doubt Cleveland can get back to putting up historic offensive numbers. Their shooting has already taken an inevitable dip, but the recent struggles of Donovan Mitchell are even more concerning. In March, DMitch has averaged just 22.4 points on 36.3/21.3/84 splits, and he missed a few games earlier in the month due to a groin injury. Since returning, he has lacked some of his usual bounce, which was most evident in a recent game against Phoenix when he only put up 7 points. There were multiple instances of DMitch struggling to blow past defenders who he normally dusts, and ones in which the Cavs were hunting on purposefully.
Impressively, the Cavs’ offensive rating during this stretch has still been 119.7, good for 8th in the league. DMitch has scored a combined 87 points on 29/61 shooting in the past three games as well to squash some of the injury concerns we had previously. With that in mind, Cleveland’s attack should remain elite, especially after their shooting comes back around.
Unfortunately, their defense doesn’t have as rosy of an outlook. The Cavs’ alarming 118.9 DRTG ranks 21st over this stretch, and it’s not just the cause of poor opponent shooting luck. Rather, Cavs fans have been getting flashbacks to their playoff series against the Knicks a few years ago when Cleveland was dominated on the glass, as they’re ranked last in the league since March 16th in defensive rebounding, grabbing just 66.3% of their own boards.
Given their propensity to play two bigs, how could this be? Well, opposing teams have started attacking Evan Mobley more on the perimeter — not because he’s an easy target, but rather to isolate Jarrett Allen in the paint.
That was on full display in their recent loss against the Clippers, when Ivica Zubac dominated the paint by racking up 28 points and 20 rebounds. LA consistently pulled Mobley out of the paint to give Zubac an easier time around the basket, like the play shown below.
Even with Allen guarding the rim, Big Zu had no problem grabbing offensive rebounds and scoring against him in the post.
With that in mind, it’s not a surprise to see the Cavs allowing 66.5% shooting (15th) within four feet of the rim during this stretch, when they were first league-wide (61.7%) prior. That latter number is still more indicative of Cleveland’s talent level given the larger sample size, but this skid also shows that the Cavs can still be exploited by size on the interior.
All in all, I’m not concerned by Cleveland’s play of late. They’ve still been a top-10 offense while shooting unsustainably poor and simultaneously enduring DMitch’s worst stretch of the year — something he’s pulling out of. There are some more red flags on defense, but outside of Boston, no other team in the East is talented enough to beat the Cavs even if their poor rebounding and interior toughness is exploited.
Cleveland remains a top-tier contender, albeit one that’s slightly below the level of the Celtics and Thunder.
Playoff seeding: the wild wild West and boring boring East
West
Outside of the first seed, the rest of the West is still up for grabs.
The Rockets have a 1.5 game lead on the Nuggets for the 2-seed, who, in turn, have a 1.5 game lead on the Lakers for the 3-seed. All three teams are in the top-10 for hardest remaining strength of schedule, but I’m confident that Houston and Denver will remain in their current positions given how they’ve played recently.
The Lakers, however, are in a more precarious position. They’ve struggled even with LeBron returning recently, and they have two games remaining against the Rockets and Thunder both. A game behind them are the Grizzlies, who just fired Taylor Jenkins for some inexplicable reason while Golden State’s been nipping at their heels, trailing by just half a game. Given the forms of these three teams, I’d bet on the Warriors to finish as the four seed, and this upcoming week will determine that: Golden State is set to play against Memphis, LA, and Denver all in the span of just four nights.
In the play-in, the Wolves are a game behind the Warriors while the Clippers are 1.5 games back. Both teams have surged recently and their strength of schedule is relatively easy compared to the other teams. It’s not inconceivable for one of them to sneak into the top six at the expense of a team like Memphis. The Grizzlies and Wolves play once more as well, and that match could be the most important game of both their seasons.
Meanwhile, the bottom of the play-in is pretty much set, as the Mavs and Kings have those spots effectively locked up. Essentially, the West comes down to who finishes in seeds 4-8, with the interesting wrinkle being that the top teams in those spots (LAL & Memphis) are struggling and have the hardest schedules, while the other three clubs (Golden State, Minnesota, LAC) are surging.
Lastly, there are two more storylines to follow. First, Denver and Minnesota have one final game remaining that could have huge ramifications on whether they meet in round one or not. Finally, the teams in the 7 & 8 spots might not be too concerned about their first-round matchup should they secure the seven-seed, given the lack of respect some of these more veteran squads have for Houston. I doubt any team will purposefully throw games given how tight everything is, but it’s still something to follow.
East
The East is a lot less dramatic comparatively. The top has similarly been determined, with the Cavs, Celtics, and Knicks, respectively, locking in those spots. Seeds four and five belong to the Pacers and Pistons, and the only question is who will have home advantage in that series. Detroit is 1.5 games back of Indiana and has a much tougher remaining schedule, so they’ll likely start the playoffs on the road.
With the Bucks two games behind the Pistons and having just lost Damian Lillard, the 3v6 matchup seems set as well. Unfortunately, without Dame, I don’t see much chance of Milwaukee getting past New York, even with Giannis being the undisputed best player in that matchup.
The play-in is all set too, as Atlanta will face Orlando for the seventh seed while the red-hot Bulls take on the (not very hot) Heat. At this point, only the Pacers/Pistons series seems destined to provide intrigue in round one, and everything’s pointing toward an inevitable Cavs-Celtics heavyweight tilt in the East Finals.
This week, please check out Jeje’s article on the similarities between the Spurs’ and Pistons’ rebuilds! I never thought to compare these two franchises, but Jeje makes a number of interesting arguments to drive home his point.
Thanks for reading! I hope everyone’s enjoying the final weeks of this crazy NBA season.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
