Through the first two days, my 2025 NBA Playoffs betting has been atrocious. I followed up an 0-4 performance Saturday in the first round of the NBA playoffs with a 1-3 effort Sunday. Thank god Justin Thomas won the 2025 RBC Heritage for me Sunday, or I’d be panhandling and selling bodily fluids to pay May’s rent. (Just kidding, kind of).
Best Bets for Monday in the 2025 NBA Playoffs
The odds are the best available at the time of writing.
- Detroit Pistons C Jalen Duren UNDER 11.5 points (-120) at New York Knicks via DraftKings, risking 0.6 units (u).
- Denver Nuggets moneyline (+102) vs. Los Angeles Clippers via FanDuel, risking 1u.
Pistons C Jalen Duren UNDER 11.5 points at Knicks
Duren has been extremely efficient vs. New York this season, but just doesn’t have the usage to go Over his points prop for Game 2. He shot 75.0% from the field and had a 143 offensive rating in four games against the Knicks this season, while averaging 11.3 points.
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But, Duren has no 3-point attempts this season and had the second-lowest usage rate (9.9%) among the nine Pistons who played in Game 1. His average usage rate during the regular season was 16.4%. Essentially, Duren isn’t a priority in Detroit’s offense and that won’t change Monday.
Lastly, anytime New York C Mitchell Robinson is on the floor, Duren is screwed because he scores off of lobs and putbacks. Robinson is one of the best defensive and rebounding bigs in the NBA, and he missed the four Pistons-Knicks meetings in the regular season.
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Clippers at Nuggets (+102)
After opening up as -136 favorites at FanDuel, Denver has been steamed down to even money at the time of writing. The same thing happened with the series odds before Game 1 Saturday. The Nuggets opened up as -155 favorites at BetMGM and the Clippers closed as -125 pre-series favorites.
Yet, as someone with a +1.1 closing line value (CLV) and a -7.7% return on investment across nearly 300 NBA bets this season, I can confidently say “CLV is overrated bullsh*t”. Also, Denver was down 15 points and stole Game 1, so the market thinks the better team lost, and the public is hammering the Clippers.
Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray getting to the cup against the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 1 of the first round in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. (Photo credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images)
Granted, that’s a fair reaction to Game 1’s result. The Nuggets had no business winning that game. Especially considering the Clippers got 32 points, 6 rebounds, and 11 assists from James Harden, 21 points and 13 rebounds from C Ivica Zubac, and 20 points on 60.0% shooting by Kawhi Leonard. Denver took LAC’s best punch, losing the first quarter 35-27.
Then, the Nuggets out-scored the Clippers in the next three quarters and overtime. Plus, Denver won three of the “four factors”. The Clippers shot better than the Nuggets, which is atypical for a road team. Denver will get a better shooting performance from PG Jamal Murray and forward Michael Porter Jr. and take a 2-0 series lead to Los Angeles for Game 3.
Prediction: Nuggets 111, Clippers 106
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