Throughout the season, the CBS Sports MLB experts will bring you a weekly Batting Around roundtable breaking down pretty much anything. The latest news, a historical question, thoughts about the future of baseball, all sorts of stuff. Last week we debated whether torpedo bats should be outlawed. This week we’re going to tackle Aaron Judge’s Hall of Fame case.
Is Aaron Judge a Hall of Famer?
R.J. Anderson: I think Judge will be a clear Hall of Famer by the time he retires. The more interesting spin on this question is: would he make it if he walked away today? I think yes. It would be a peak-based argument, but his best seven years are much better than the average Hall of Fame right fielder’s, according to Baseball Reference. Furthermore, Judge isn’t just the best home run hitter of his generation — he’s one of the best of all time. To wit, this could go down as his fourth 50-homer season, making him one of four players to ever achieve that … the others being Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Babe Ruth. I’m not saying he’d receive 100% of votes; I just think he would (and will) find his way to Cooperstown in some fashion.
Matt Snyder: I have very little doubt he’ll be a Hall of Famer when he retires. He’s not yet fully into a “future Hall of Famer” territory yet, I don’t think. But it seems close.
Given that Judge has now seen time in 10 seasons, he’s technically eligible for the Hall of Fame. If he, for some reason, just retired right now, it would be an interesting case. The counting stats leave a lot to be desired with 321 home runs, 734 RBI and 750 runs. In fact, this would be an unprecedented induction. Judge only has 1,041 career hits. Very, very few Hall of Famers without special circumstances (got in as a manager, was a Negro Leagues player, died due to illness, etc.) fell short of 2,000 hits and Judge is barely past half that. He’s still well short of 1,000 RBI and most sluggers need around 1,500 to make it.
In terms of just being a peak Hall of Famer, though, there’s an argument. Judge’s WAR7 (average of top seven WAR seasons) is above the Hall of Fame threshold among right fielders, ninth all time (there are 30 right fielders in Cooperstown right now). He’s reached 50 homers three times and 58+ twice, the only player without PED ties to pull off the latter feat other than Babe Ruth.
The intangible “feared hitter” argument carries a lot of weight here, too.
I’m inclined to think that Judge would have an uphill battle but still eventually make the Hall of Fame if he just decided to retire tomorrow. The current path on which he’s headed suggests this discussion is moot and he’ll be enshrined long down the road, just about five years after he does decide to retire.
Dayn Perry: Like everyone else, I think he’s going to be an obvious Hall of Famer when he retires, especially since he seems to still be at peak in his thirties. Thus far, there’s not much to those concerns about how a player of Judge’s physical dimensions would age in his thirties. If he stopped playing now, though, he seems right on the line for me. He’s light on career value relative to most inducted position players, but his peak is impossible to ignore. Also impossible to ignore is that his career would end with a slash line of .289/.406/.607 — absurd stuff. I’ll say Judge would make it but do so via an Era Committee vote years down the line.
Mike Axisa: I’ve spoken to a few writer pals who’ve said they anticipate voting for Judge when the time comes because his peak is so outrageously good. His last three seasons are as dominant a three-season stretch as just about anyone in history: .304/.433/.674 with 157 homers even while missing two months with a toe injury in 2023. That works out to a 203 OPS+, a number only 16 qualified hitters have reached in a single season, and we’re talking about doing it across three years.
I’m a Big Hall guy (here’s my 2025 ballot) and I’m in the “I would vote for Judge based on his peak alone” camp. He still has a few years to strengthen his case, and once that’s done, I think Judge will be viewed as a Hall of Famer no questions asked. I would vote for him right now and I think that by time he’s done playing, he’ll be a slam dunk first ballot guy.
