Major League Baseball is a sport perfectly suited for same game parlays.
Not only do we have abundant options across the traditional markets and props for both pitchers and hitters, but plenty of those bets correlate well. Given parlays require all legs to hit, that cohesion is key.
Which SGP stands out to me tonight?
Let’s dig into the Kansas City Royals at the Detroit Tigers and lay out where I’m seeing value in FanDuel Sportsbook’s MLB betting odds.
Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.
Today’s Best MLB SGP for Royals at Tigers
Leg 1: Reese Olson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)
Reese Olson Under
Reese Olson‘s strengths as a pitcher lie outside of his ability to get strikeouts, so I’m comfortable taking the under despite liking him as a talent.
Olson’s 3.53 ERA last year was thanks in large part to his ability to generate ground balls. From a strikeout perspective, he finished at 21.7%. That number is even lower this year — 19.4% — potentially because he has leaned more into his sinker, a pitch that isn’t intended to get whiffs.
Put him up against a low-strikeout lineup, and I have Olson projected for 4.25 strikeouts, low enough for me to like the under.
Leg 2: Kerry Carpenter to Record 2-Plus Total Bases (+130)
Kerry Carpenter
+115
There are a couple of factors that make Kerry Carpenter fun for this market.
The big one? He’s good at the game. Carpenter has five bombs already with a .304 ISO. Since the beginning of last year, Carpenter’s ISO is .318 against righties, meaning he can cash this ticket with one swing.
The other factor is that Carpenter puts the ball in play a ton. Walks don’t count toward total bases, and Carpenter is rocking a minuscule 1.7% walk rate for the year. For our specific purposes, that’s perfection.
Opposing starter Michael Lorenzen has reverse-split tendencies, so I’m not actively seeking out a lefty here; Carpenter’s just too good to pass up.
Leg 3: Bobby Witt Jr. to Record 2-Plus Total Bases (-115)
Bobby Witt Jr.
-130
If we’re gonna ride with one team’s star, we might as well ride with the other.
This is more about loving Witt than looking to bet more against Olson. And with Witt, we have multiple routes to cashing here.
Like Carpenter, he puts the ball in play a bunch with a 16.0% strikeout rate to open the season. That ups his odds of having a pair of singles.
Witt is also just scorching the ball right now. His hard-hit rate is 54.2%, which means his .183 ISO likely undersells his power.
Since the start of last year, Witt has had multiple total bases in 56.1% of his games. I like his odds of getting there again today against a low-strikeout pitcher.
SGP Odds at Time of Publication: +646
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
