The No. 1 seeds in the Western and Eastern Conference are both hoping to get home-court advantage back in the second round of the playoffs when they play in Game 4s Sunday, May 11. The Oklahoma City Thunder had the best record during the regular season but need a win over the Denver Nuggets in order to level that series at 2-2 ahead of Game 5 in Oklahoma City. The Cleveland Cavaliers, who won 64 games under Coach of the Year Kenny Atkinson, lost Games 1 and 2 at home to the Indiana Pacers before striking back in Game 3. So far in the second round, home teams have won just two games with Denver winning Game 3 and Minnesota winning Game 2 in its series. bet365 has the Thunder and the Cavs as 7 and 5.5-point favorites, respectively, on the road.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
SportsLine Projection Model’s top picks
- Under 227.5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 7.5 assists
- Nikola Jokic Under 13.5 rebounds
The Nuggets had a brilliant comeback in Game 1, aided by some poor free-throw shooting from Oklahoma City. The Thunder blew out the Nuggets in Game 2 but Denver had achieved the split it wanted. The Nuggets overcame a poor shooting performance from Nikola Jokic (8-25, 0-10 3pt) in Game 3 to grab a 113-104 win overtime, with Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon providing huge contributions. Jokic, who is averaging 15.3 rebounds per game in this series, is actually projected to go Under 13.5 rebounds (-114) according to SportsLine’s model. Likely league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is also among the model’s top-rated props. Although he has logged at least seven assists in every game of the series and put up eight assists in both Games 1 and 2, the model projects him at just 6.1 assists in Game 4.
The Thunder are 6.5-point favorites in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, priced at -262 (wager $262 to win $100) on the money line. Denver is a +212 (wager $100 to win $212) underdog and the total comes in at 227.5. The Under hits on the total in 65.6% of simulations. You can see the model’s latest projections, along with expert picks for Thunder-Nuggets Game 4, at SportsLine.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers, 8 p.m. ET, TNT
SportsLine Projection Model’s top picks
- Under 230.5
- Donovan Mitchell Under 35.5 points + rebounds
Cleveland got some key players back from injuries for Game 3 with Darius Garland and Evan Mobley returning, but it was Mitchell who was the star of the evening with 43 points, five assists and nine rebounds. Mitchell is averaging 41.3 points per game in the series, so its risky to take the Under on any line involving his points prop, but the SportsLine model is looking at the Under on Mitchell’s points + rebounds line. He’s projected at 29.9 points + rebounds. Garland and Mobley are officially off the injury report, so they should be good to go for Game 4. The Pacers, who have won just once at home in these playoffs, have some reasons to be confident heading into Sunday’s contest. Indiana was 18-18 this season as an underdog but went 21-12 in games after a loss.
In SportsLine’s latest consensus odds, the Cavaliers are 5.5-point favorites and priced at -216 (wager $216 to win $100) on the money line. Indiana is a +179 (wager $100 to win $179) underdog and the total sits at 230.5. The Under hits on the total in 60.9% of simulations. You can see the model’s latest projections, along with expert picks for Cavaliers-Pacers Game 4, at SportsLine.
