Oklahoma City trounced the broken-down Denver Nuggets in Game 7, and now they head into the Western Conference Finals as strong favorites to win the West.
The Thunder are widely expected to win this series over the Timberwolves and are big seven-point favorites in Game 1 according to oddsmakers.
With Oklahoma City now minus money to win the NBA Finals (-175), the bookies believe that it is shaping up to be a rout for the remainder of the playoffs with the Thunder finally winning a championship.
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Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 1 prediction
These two teams split the season series 2-2, although Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert were absent in three of those games, so it’s mostly a fruitless endeavor to put too much stock in the head-to-head.
The only game that featured both teams at full-ish strength (Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso were out) ended in a 113-105 win for the Thunder.
But the Timberwolves look like a different team compared to where they were earlier this season.
Minnesota has had a rebirth of strong play thanks to scoring forward Julius Randle, who has dominated each of the past two series as a matchup nightmare for the Lakers and Warriors.
Randle averaged 29.8 and 37.1 percent from the field in his two playoff series with the Knicks, but has turned it around for the Wolves, shooting 50.9 percent in these playoffs.
I’m not so sure that continues against an incredibly frustrating Thunder defense that could force Randle to bring back old bad habits.
My model has the projected score of 113.84 to 104.6, giving a small 2.5-percent edge on the Thunder -7.
As an added prop bet, target any and all unders you can get on his defensive stats; I suspect he begins to lose his cool at some point and slacks on the defensive side of the ball.
A few options are under .5 block (-200) and under 1.5 steals + blocks (-230).
I’d also recommend a wager on under 1.5 3-pointers, at +100 this evening.
PICK: Thunder -7 | Randle under 1.5 3-pointers made (+100, BetMGM)
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
