Aaron Judge chased down one of MLB’s most famous numbers three years ago, when he topped Roger Maris’ 61 home runs with 62 of his own to break the American League record. Can he achieve another historic milestone this time around, one that hasn’t been accomplished in over eight decades?
The last MLB player to hit .400 in a single season was Ted Williams, who achieved the feat in 1941. Since then, there have been many players who have raced off to hot starts at the plate, but the closest anyone has come was Tony Gwynn posting a .394 average in 1994.
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Through 52 games (all stats ahead of Monday’s slate), Judge leads baseball with a .397 average, which is 40 points higher than the next-closest player, Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman at .357. BetMGM first posted a betting market on whether Judge would hit .400 this season back on May 2, with the opening odds coming in at +25000 (bet $100 to win $25,000). Those odds now sit at +15000 (bet $100 to win $15,000) after dipping to +10000.
One BetMGM bettor put $2,000 on Judge to hit .400 back when it was priced at +17500, for a potential win of $350,000. Highlighted by that wager, BetMGM told The Athletic that Judge finishing with a .400 average served as the sportsbook’s most notable liability among all of its MLB betting markets.
“We get more action on MLB achievement props than any other sport,” said Hal Egeland, Trading Manager at BetMGM. “MLB’s historic numbers seem to have more significance for the public in general, even beyond betting. So these key numbers, like 62 home runs or a .400 batting average, stick in people’s minds and draw more interest than, say, LeBron James breaking the points record. If there was ever a case where there’s a player bidding for the home run record, I would imagine we would take a massive amount of handle on that.”
BetMGM also has a betting market up for whether Judge can capture the American League triple crown (lead in batting average, home runs and runs batted in), a feat last accomplished by Miguel Cabrera in 2012. Judge’s ‘Yes’ odds to win the triple crown are at +135 (bet $100 to win $135), while the ‘No’ is priced at -200 (bet $200 to win $100).
Besides ranking first in batting average, Judge leads the AL in home runs with 18, just edging out Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (17). The Yankees slugger, however, is second in the AL in RBI at 47, just trailing Red Sox slugger Rafael Devers’ 48. However, Judge winning the triple crown hasn’t attracted nearly the same level of betting action at BetMGM as hitting .400.
“It’s not even close,” Egeland said. “I think it mostly has to do with the price. If you’re going to place a bet and have it sit for the remainder of the MLB season, you’re going to want a bigger payout than +135. But we haven’t gotten much interest on the ‘No’ either, so I guess people don’t love the edge in either direction. There’s a lot of casual money for him to hit .400 or higher. If he’s still hitting at or close to .400 late in the season, we’re going to see even more action on it.”
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Not surprisingly, Judge is also the massive favorite to win AL MVP at BetMGM. He was the +300 co-favorite with Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. ahead of the Yankees’ season opener. It took Judge less than one week to become the -110 favorite and about five weeks to emerge as the sizable -1000 chalk for the award. He now sits at -3000 for AL MVP (~97 percent implied probability), with Witt Jr. second at +1400 and nobody else shorter than +9000.
So, with Judge getting all of this love in futures markets, is he also the most popular player prop wager daily?
Caesars lead baseball trader Eric Biggio told The Athletic that the only player that comes close to daily Judge’s prop action is Shohei Ohtani. While Judge typically receives about 25 percent to 50 percent more bets on his props each day compared to Ohtani, it’s at least three times the number of bets for any other player. The gap in betting popularity between Judge and Ohtani has only widened as the season continues to progress.
“In the first month of the season, it was as close as you could get for prop bets on Judge and Ohtani,” Egeland said. “It was actually about 2 percent more on Ohtani compared to Judge. Since then, Judge has taken the top spot by quite a bit, with Ohtani the only one in striking distance — but even then, Judge has like a 20 percent edge on Ohtani. After that, there isn’t anyone that’s gotten even half the bets or handle of Judge player props in pretty much any offensive category.”
(Photo of Aaron Judge: Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images)
