It’s a little too early to take data from the 2025 MLB season too seriously. Moves should now be made for reasons of injury and playing time. Generally, the best advice for the first month is, “Don’t just do something! Stand there!”
Most of you now play in weekly head-to-head leagues, though. So you often have to pick someone up for starts just to win the week. You may have a fringe hitter sitting out over the weekend, and since the hitting pool is so deep, you may just need the at-bats that day. At a minimum, we constantly want to know who has earned good stats among the most available players. But we don’t want to overfit the model with so much data that we’re basically replicating reality.
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So, my search criteria here are going to be sparse. For hitters, I’m looking for less than 10 Ks on the season and an expected slugging over .500 (a very big number in Statcast). For pitchers, I’m looking for an above-average K% (I set it at 25%) with an expected ERA under 3.00.
I’m not overselling this list; it’s not in order of who to grab (those orders will come soon enough). And I’m not looking at the players with bad expected stats since it’s so early, and I don’t want to freak you out. Baby steps.
Hitters
Note: Roster percentages are according to Yahoo. Access The Athletic’s guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball.
Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B/3B/OF, 66%): His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is in the 94th percentile, and his expected batting average (xBA) is in the 98th. His actual isolated power (ISO) is .200, but the power is average at best. He rarely strikes out, which is a big deal in category leagues. This start for Donovan probably isn’t real, though he is at peak age. I think he is more of a Scoresheet/simulation player, but he’s on the fringe of being worthy of an add in mixed leagues.
Brandon Lowe (TB, 1B/2B, 64%): He’s one of the great barrel hitters in our game. He’s always elite, but this year, he’s barreling an insane 17.9% of batted balls and 13.2% of PAs (the average for PAs is 4.8%). Lowe has the lowest respect of any 39-homer 2B ever. What if he stays healthy? There’s no such thing as an injury-prone hitter, I maintain. His Ks are way down to just under league average.
Maikel Garcia (KC, 2B/3B, 51%): He was viewed as a good source of steals, but at the cost of sacrificing power and average. But he’s tripled his barrel rate early without increasing his Ks much. If the power is remotely real, even just average, he absolutely must be rostered. Oddly, he hasn’t run much.
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Jung Hoo Lee (SF, OF, 38%): Hoo Lee is like Donovan in that he’s more valuable in a Points/simulation league than in Roto/category formats. He does have three steals, though, and he’s 74th-percentile in sprint speed, so thinking he can steal 30 bases isn’t crazy. He’s a solid hitter, bat-to-ball-wise, and he will be more of a .150 ISO hitter (about 13-to-17 homers). He’s also a great fielder and hits in a premium lineup spot.
Ben Rice (NYY, 1B, 34%): He’s batting leadoff, though he only plays against righties. The man did have a three-homer game last year. Rice’s expected ISO is over .400, which is basically Aaron Judge. He’s walked as much as he’s struck out. He’s also a 70th-percentile runner (two steals already). Batting ahead of Judge when he plays more than makes up for not playing against lefties.
Michael Conforto (LAD, OF, 21%): His expected stats are about as good as his actual ones. He was an all-star-caliber hitter before his ugly shoulder dislocation years ago, and he’s struggled since. Maybe he’s finally healthy. Conforto’s bat speed is 68th-percentile, and that’s a stat we can take seriously right away, obviously. He needs to pull the ball like in his past peak to really break out, and he’s well short of that level.
Pitchers
Kris Bubic (KC, 63%): He’s another converted reliever, except this lefty has poor velocity. Does that matter when you’re whiffing 30% of batters? Bubic’s K rate is not real (half skill) yet, but it stabilizes the fastest (≈70 batters faced). His fastball has a 34% whiff rate (absurd), and his changeup generates 53% whiffs (unreal). Is that fact or fluke? It’s closer to fact at this point.
Brady Singer (CIN, 61%): Another soft thrower, but a righty, who gets a crazy amount of whiffs with his fastball despite (because of) rarely throwing it. He’s a sinker/slider pitcher. That’s not a 30% Ks profile, but he’s doing it. Singer is about a start or two short of being someone to believe in, though. His expected ERA is 2.11.
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Chris Bassitt (TOR, 58%): He’s getting +30% whiffs with four pitches. I don’t believe it. He’s more of a No. 7 mixed-league starter. But at some point, you have to respect the stats. What’s crazy about Bassitt is that he gets crushed on a high percentage of balls in play and PAs, but still, his xERA is under 3.00. I would not change my preseason ranking of him … yet.
Casey Mize (DET, 36%): Mize is the classic post-hype sleeper. A healthy top-draft pick like Mize can always pop in his late 20s. Look how long it took Tarik Skubal. Mize is younger than Skubal. When you have not given up a barrel through two starts (one vs. the Yankees), you have my attention. His xERA is 2.16 and xBA is .156. His split finger is generating 73% whiffs. Are you kidding me? Last year, it was 32%, which is still good. Maybe he’ll be 1986 Mike Scott this year (look it up).
José Soriano (LAA, 34%): This guy looks the part of an ace. The radar gun agrees. He’s like vintage Noah Syndergaard, with so many Ks and ground balls. The bump in Ks is just from throwing the slider nearly three times as often as in 2024.
Hayden Wesneski (HOU, 17%): I liked him as a deep-league flyer in March. He’s way better in expected stats than actual (though his actual stats are not terrible). Elite extension makes his fastball seem like about 97 mph to batters. Wesneski’s Ks do not excite me, but he has the arsenal to get more (curve and changeup seem like possible out pitches).
Andrew Heaney (PIT, 7%): The theory: an average pitcher (work with me) in a pitcher’s park equals an above-average pitcher. His walk rate is half the league average, which stabilizes with 70 batters, too. He generally overachieves in Ks and once did so radically (2022).
(Top photo of José Soriano: John Cordes / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
