Breakouts or Mirages? Evaluating hot and cold fantasy baseball starts

In some ways, this is the hardest time of the year to be a fantasy manager. Breakouts and collapses are happening, but for every one of those, there are a dozen hot starts and cold streaks, which will be largely invisible in year-end stat lines.

As a reminder, through April last year, Mark Canha boasted a .278/.407/.515 line. Cedric Mullins looked like he had returned to being a top power-speed threat with six homers and six steals. Meanwhile, Francisco Lindor was muddling along with a .197 average. 

But it wasn’t all noise. Gunnar Henderson and Elly De La Cruz were already making themselves known as top-10 fantasy players. Jordan Westburg and Riley Greene carried hot starts into stellar seasons. Michael Busch showed that he was ready to be a mid-tier first baseman. Let’s look at some outlier starts and see if there is cause for excitement or concern.

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Hot starts

Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, PIT

I try to get out, and they pull me back in. Hayes looked like he had the ingredients to be a second-tier fantasy stud in 2023, with a healthy mix of speed and power and excellent contact skills. Then it all fell apart last year. The barrel rate — never a strength for him — sunk to 2.4%, leading to a power outage and an ugly .233/.280/.290 line. 

I was out on a guy whose breakout I’d been calling for a few years, but at least it was a clean break.

This year, his walk and barrel rates are up, he’s striking out less, and his .263 and .421 batting and slugging averages (respectively) have room to grow with his expected stats at .305 and .487.

Even better, there’s a clear process change to go with this. He’s swinging less and elevating when he does. His launch angle has tripled to 15 degrees, just a tick above where it was in 2023. His hard-hit rate is above 50% for the first time since his 24 games in 2020. The big change is that he’s swinging much less at non-fastballs. 

He has always been great at squaring up the ball, and he’s been even better this year, per Statcast.

It’s early, obviously, and pitchers will try new approaches based on his adjustments (also, I’m jinxing him right now), but I just snapped up Hayes in one league in case he’s finally figured it out.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, ARI

Suarez’s second half of the season last year felt like a dream. He put up a forgettable 87 wRC+ in the first half and was likely available on your waiver wire. Then he went insane in July on his way to a 153 wRC+. Going into this year, I didn’t see anyone touting that second-half Suarez would continue this year. After all, he’s always been a good-but-not-elite power hitter who runs into stretches of excellence here and there. 

I think that’s still what he is, but he’s put up absurd numbers so far this year. I can only assume he is trying to hit a home run with every swing and succeeding frequently enough. He has collected six hits so far this year. Five of them are dingers (the other one was a double). His launch angle is up 4.4 points to 23.7, and he’s pairing that with an unbelievable 63% hard-hit rate and 26% barrel rate.

Obviously, that can’t last, but who is he now? I don’t see any big swings in his process stats, and power is volatile by nature because a relatively small number of events defines it.

I would increase my rest-of-season home run projection for him, but I could also see Suarez running into some slumps. Pitchers will adjust, and there will be times when the long flies fall just short. I’m not fretting about the sub-.200 average this early, mainly because it comes with a high xBA, but the big power-low average thing may become more pronounced over time. 

Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, ATH

The young A’s first baseman has stumbled on an excellent strategy: turn half of your fly balls into home runs. Other hitters are sure to adopt this soon.

The 15.6% barrel rate is excellent but not peak-Barry-Bonds-playing-slow-pitch-softball excellent. Soderstrom is showing his best swinging-strike and strikeout rates, which is encouraging. If he can keep the middling contact rates, his bat speed should keep the steady, productive power coming. I’m optimistic he’ll weather the inevitable ups and downs and end as a top-10 first baseman. 

At the time of writing, Soderstrom is dealing with a left calf contusion. It sounds minor enough but bears monitoring. 

Spencer Torkelson, 1B, DET

Tork is trying to make us forget his disastrous 2024. His 15% barrel rate is a tick better than his 2023 breakout and more than double last year’s figure. The .435 BABIP has about .150 points of helium, but in many ways, he looks like the good version of himself. 

His BB and K rates are both up significantly, but weirdly, he’s not swinging much less, and his contact rates are similar to his career level. 

He’ll come back to Earth, but I’m anticipating something closer to his 2023 production (31 homers, .233 average) this year.

There are too many crazy starts to get to them all, but here are some quick notes on a few others:

George Springer has a .652 BABIP, and I’m happy for him! Enjoy it while it lasts.

Jonathan Aranda is second among qualified hitters with a .474 BABIP, and I’m intrigued. He had a 16.5% barrel rate in 44 games last year, and he’s at 20% this year. We may be seeing the exaggerated version of the breakout here.

I honestly have no idea how much of what Wilyer Abreu is doing is real, but look at his Statcast page if you like the color red. He’s doing everything right: low Ks, high barrels, not chasing, hitting the ball hard. It’s hard to know how much of this he maintains, but he was great in Triple A in 2023 and held his own last year in the majors. It wouldn’t be foolish to think this is the start of a breakout.

Cold starts

What’s cooler than being cool? These guys. Let’s look at a few players you expected more from when you drafted them.

I’m not worried about Mike Trout just yet. The BB and K rates look fine, and his x-stats look how they should for one of the best hitters ever. He’s a good buy low if you can manage the health risk.

Marcus Semien is better than this, but I think he might land closer to last year’s .237/.308/.391 than we were hoping. The SwStr, K and BB rates have all moved in the wrong direction this year. He’ll find his power again, and the counting stats will be there, but at 34, these dips are troubling.

Someone dropped Dylan Crews in my 12-team league, and I was preparing to put in a big bid until I saw the 35% K rate, paired with the 2.7% BB rate. It’s not all bad news — he has already hit a ball harder than he did in the majors last year, and the 8.7% barrel rate will play just fine with his speed. He just doesn’t seem to have a sense of the zone right now, and while the contact skills aren’t bad, they aren’t good enough to cover for all the chasing he’s doing. I trust him to straighten things out enough to tap into the elite speed, but you might have to wade through more of this first. 

Yainer Diaz does not seem fully healthy. His bat and sprint speeds are lower than last year, and he’s swinging much less. It could just be bad luck and cold weather. I believe in his underlying skills enough to think he can return to himself, but only if his body allows.

The outlook is only slightly better for another top catcher (catcher-eligible, anyway). Willson Contreras has not barreled a ball at the time of writing, and his K rate is an unplayable 43%. The bat speed is still top-notch, but the sprint speed is down a bit this year, which could hint at some physical issues. I don’t expect him to right the ship overnight, but I’m tentatively optimistic that warmer weather and some time to acclimate to being a first baseman will eventually turn things around. 

(Photo of Ke’Bryan Hayes: Mark Taylor / Getty Images)

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