Ducey’s prediction: Damian Lillard’s re-insertion to the starting lineup will help make enough of a difference for the Bucks to cover the spread and potentially even the series vs. Indiana.
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The Indiana Pacers took Game 1 of their first-round series with the Milwaukee Bucks in commanding fashion over the weekend and will look to further protect their home floor in Game 2.
With Milwaukee expecting Damian Lillard back, however, things might get interesting. My Bucks vs Pacers predictionsexplain why offense should rule the night, highlighting this Milwaukee’s brilliance despite Lillard’s absence.
Let’s dig into it with our NBA picks on Tuesday, April 22, ahead of this 7 p.m. ET clash on NBA TV.
Who will win Bucks vs Pacers Game 2?
The Milwaukee Bucks offense has been earth-shattering since the start of April, and now with Damian Lillard returning, you’d have to expect a turnaround, even on the road.
The Bucks shot over 40% from 3-point range in the regular season versus the Indiana Pacers, and after a horrific night from outside, the vibes should return with Lillard putting up plenty of shots and Milwaukee continuing to hold the Pacers to inefficient looks, just as it did when it took control of this season series.
I expect the Bucks to dig their teeth into this series and level it at one game apiece.
Bucks vs Pacers prediction
My best bet: Bucks +4 (-110 at bet365)
The Bucks are about to get a massive lift with Lillard set to go for the first time since he was sidelined with a blood clot a month ago. He’s been responsible for a huge uptick in offense in his minutes, even though Milwaukee led the NBA in offense in the final month of the regular season.
Now, the Bucks commanded this season series with some strong showings on offense but struggled on that end in Game 1, where they shot just 24.3% from outside and 41.7% overall.
Lillard’s 3-point prowess should play a major role tonight, and while he’s a bit of a liability on defense, it’s not like Tyrese Haliburton has had a great season shooting the ball, and he went 0-for-7 from deep on Saturday.
In fact, you’d have to say holding Indiana to 38.2% from outside was a win, as was the fact that Pascal Siakam was the only one to take command on that end. He was a scoring threat in the season series, and Indiana went 1-3, so letting him beat you while stifling everyone else has been a winning strategy.
But Milwaukee would gladly trade some defense for offense in the interim, and that’s where Lillard should help.
Milwaukee was the second-best team from the perimeter and from inside the restricted area in April, and while Indiana was Top-10 against both those zones, its offense has been predicated on inefficient mid-range jumpers, which the Bucks have defended well, ranking 12th in the long mid-range over the last three weeks.
I trust this Bucks offense to keep chugging and shake off an outlier performance in Game 1, particularly with Lillard — responsible for a three-point uptick in offensive rating this season — back in the fold.
Considering the Bucks — a poor rebounding team — remained neck-and-neck with the Pacers on the glass, too, there’s every reason to believe in them here.
Bucks vs Pacers same-game parlay
Bucks +4
Bobby Portis Over 7.5 rebounds
Damian Lillard Over 2.5 threes
The Bucks will need to lean heavily on Bobby Portis with most of Indiana’s offense coming from its frontcourt pairing of Siakam and Myles Turner. After playing 25 minutes on Saturday, we may see even more minutes out of Portis after registering a team-best +3 in that time.
Portis collected eight boards in those minutes, and he grabbed 22 rebounds in two regular-season games vs. the Pacers. The glass is always a tough spot for Milwaukee, but Portis — along with a friendly matchup — should help keep it level.
Lillard also averaged nine 3-point attempts against Indiana this season, and even if he’s limited, he can climb over this short number. The Bucks shot the three incredibly well against Indiana up until Saturday’s loss, and they’ll need to rely on shooting to get themselves back into this series.
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Bucks vs Pacers odds
Bucks vs Pacers live odds
Bucks vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee +6 (-110) | Indiana -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +195 | Indiana -240
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 (-110) | Under 225.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Bucks are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 and 16-11-1 ATS as underdogs.
- Indiana was just 19-30-1 ATS this season after a win and 20-28-2 as favorites.
- Milwaukee has played to the Under just once in its last 10 games.
- The Over was just 14-18 in Indiana’s home games as favorites.
Bucks vs Pacers trend
The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the spread in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.00 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Pacers.
How to watch Bucks vs Pacers
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
Bucks vs Pacers latest injuries
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