-
Eric Karabell
Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
Philadelphia Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber has long been one of the pre-eminent power hitters in baseball, averaging 44 blasts over the past three seasons. Certainly, this has value in the fantasy world. Schwarber hasn’t been a perfect fantasy option, though. In 2023, Schwarber became the first player to surpass 40 home runs while hitting on the wrong side of .200, and his career mark is .231. He has twice led the league in strikeouts and carries a career K-rate of 28.1%
Don’t be surprised… if Schwarber finishes as a top-10 fantasy option this season
Schwarber enters Thursday as the No. 5 hitter in points leagues and tied for the MLB lead in home runs. His streak of 47 consecutive games reaching base safely was snapped on Wednesday. Schwarber, 32, isn’t thriving because he moved from the leadoff spot to the cleanup role. This is about Schwarber making significant changes to his approach, which includes drastically cutting down his strikeout rate (down from 28% to 20%), making considerably more contact (up from 65% to 75%) and, after years of struggles against left-handed pitching, he is now dominating them to the tune of a 1.187 OPS. Fewer strikeouts are critical to his points format value.
With roughly 75% of the regular season left, Schwarber has a long way to go to keep these adjustments and continue to rank alongside the likes of Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani. Why should we bet against it? Schwarber finished last season with 406 ESPN fantasy points as the home runs and walks outshone the strikeouts, tied for 20th among hitters with teammate 1B Bryce Harper. He is currently on pace to easily top that mark, as he’s hitting .261 with a high walk rate. He even has four stolen bases! Schwarber, who ironically enough can become a free agent this fall, is enjoying his best, most complete season — and he’s also No. 8 on the Player Rater. It all looks legitimate to trust for fantasy.
Don’t be surprised… if Houston Astros 2B/OF Jose Altuve is no longer a top-100 player
Altuve finished last season with 385 fantasy points, ranking third among second basemen. He hit .295 with 20 home runs and 22 stolen bases and scored 94 runs. While there was some trepidation about his turning 35 years old and coming off a season with a shrinking walk rate, he still felt like he’d be a stable producer — one still thriving on a Hall of Fame path. The Astros lost several key pieces last winter, but Altuve remained. The organization promised to move him to left field, opting for more defense at second base. Altuve hit .357 with three home runs and two stolen bases through 10 games. All looked well.
Since then, over 30 games, Altuve has hit a mere .220 (.564 OPS) with only one home run and one stolen base. He has exhibited decreased exit velocity, fewer Barrels and the highest groundball rate (by far) of his distinguished career. He requested a move away from the team’s leadoff spot, and SS Jeremy Pena took over the role. This isn’t about Altuve struggling because he switched defensive positions. Altuve is hitting .260 as a left fielder and .174 at second base. Neither mark is good enough. He looks like a different player.
One thing to note: 28 big league teams enter play on Thursday with at least 300 PA versus left-handed pitching. The Astros and Angels, however, have barely reached 200 PA. This tends to be cyclical, but the Astros are not scheduled to face any left-handed starters over the next 10 days. Altuve hit .370 with a .968 OPS against lefties in 2024. He hit .270 with a .731 OPS against right-handed pitching. So far, Altuve has only 19 PA against lefties and this may explain his struggles to some degree. Several Astros should improve when the team faces more lefties, including Altuve, C Yainer Diaz, 1B Christian Walker and OF Yordan Alvarez.
Altuve ranks 124th among hitters in points league scoring, though he remains rostered in 94.6% of ESPN standard leagues. Fantasy managers have remained patient, but that patience is waning, especially with the Orioles’ Jackson Holliday, Mets’ Brett Baty, Guardians’ Gabriel Arias and Tigers’ Colt Keith all recently showing promise at second base. Altuve had a rough May last season (.573 OPS) and he improved the final four months. Don’t give up on him yet, but things need to revert to normal the rest of this May.
Don’t be surprised… if Atlanta Braves LHP Chris Sale finishes with a sub-3.00 ERA again
Not that anyone should be eager to move on, but Sale enters his Friday outing against his old mates in Boston with a 3.97 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP and only one win in eight starts. That’s not great. This appears to be all about bad luck. Sale’s .392 BABIP is among the highest for qualified starters, joined by several Rockies, Diamondbacks LHP Eduardo Rodriguez and Giants RHP Jordan Hicks. Last year, Sale permitted a .215 batting average. This year, it’s .278, but most of his metrics match with 2024, when he went 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts and won the NL Cy Young award.
Go get Sale in fantasy before things change with his ERA and win total. He has 28 whiffs over his past three outings, earning nary a victory. He’ll eventually get the run support. His bullpen will improve. Sale’s expected ERA is a cool 3.24 — not quite like last season, but the best is yet to come.
Don’t be surprised… if Detroit Tigers SS/3B/OF Javier Baez becomes droppable this month
Not to ruin what has been an excellent resurrection story, one which included a pair of rocketed home runs to win Tuesday’s game, but Baez is not likely to aid fantasy managers for close to six full months, at least not with these metrics. Once upon a time, he was a significant fantasy option — a two-time All Star and a Gold Glove winner. He hit .265 with 31 home runs and 18 stolen bases for the 2021 Cubs and Mets. We enjoyed him in fantasy. Then he went to the Tigers for six years and $140 million, still not 30 years old, and he hit just .221 with a .262 OBP and .610 OPS over three years, 360 games and 1,426 PA, averaging 11 home runs and 21 walks per season. He went undrafted in most fantasy leagues in 2025 for good reason.
Baez enters Thursday hitting .309 and adeptly handling center field for the club with the best record in baseball. Unsurprsingly, he is among the most-added fantasy options. The problem is that this isn’t real. Tuesday’s heroics aside, Baez is not hitting for power (.187 ISO, 5 HR). He is not stealing bases (1-for-2). This is almost all about a .379 BABIP. It is near impossible to hit .300 with a 3.8% walk rate, and Baez is near the bottom of the league in hard-hit rate, exit velocity and line drive rate. He is among the leaders in ground ball rate. It’s a fine May story, but the Tigers will get better outfield reinforcements back soon (Parker Meadows, Matt Vierling), and you may be moving on before June.
