Can the Portland Trail Blazers land Cooper Flagg? What to know before the NBA Draft lottery

PORTLAND, Ore. — The Portland Trail Blazers will find out Monday night during the NBA Draft Lottery whether they’ll get a chance to draft elite prospect Cooper Flagg.

Flagg is the clear No. 1 prospect in this year’s draft class after the highly touted freshman exceeded expectations in his lone season at Duke. Flagg, a 6-foot-9 forward, averaged 19.2 points and shot 48.1% from the field, 38.5% from the 3-point line and 84.0% from the free-throw line (or 48/39/84 shooting splits). Click or tap here to see Flagg’s full list of stats. He was named national player of the year by multiple outlets and organizations, and led the Blue Devils to 35 wins and an appearance in the Final Four.

According to draft expert Sam Vecenie of The Athletic, “barring injury, (Flagg is) about as can’t-miss as it gets because of his skill level, athleticism, shot-creation ability and mentality,”

Let’s be honest — the Blazers’ chances of landing the No. 1 pick, and Flagg with it, aren’t great. Portland has the 10th best lottery odds out of the 14 lottery teams, giving them a 3.7% chance at the top pick. That’s roughly 1 in 27 — about the same as pulling a black ace from a shuffled deck.

2025 NBA Draft Lottery

• Time: Monday, May 12, coverage begins at 4 p.m. Pacific Time
• TV: ESPN (stream it on ESPN.com and the ESPN app)

Here are five key questions heading into Monday’s draft lottery:

The NBA Draft lottery sets the order of the first 14 picks, involving all teams that missed the playoffs. The first four picks are decided by a lottery weighted in favor of the teams with the four worst records. The remaining teams are placed in reverse order of their regular-season finish.

Fourteen numbered ping-pong balls are used to create 1,001 possible four-ball combinations. Before the drawing, 1,000 of those combinations are assigned to teams. The drawing takes place in a private room before the televised reveal, with league officials, media, team representatives and Ernst & Young present.

Four balls are drawn at timed intervals. If a drawn combo is unassigned or already awarded, it’s discarded and redrawn. Results are sealed and revealed live on ESPN by NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum.

Picks 5 through 14 and the rest of the draft (Nos. 15–60) follow the reverse order of team records.

The Blazers securing the top pick is unlikely, but there is reason to hope. The Atlanta Hawks won last year’s draft lottery from the same slot — 10th — as the Blazers. But in the four seasons prior to that, the teams that won were either in the second position or the third position going in. Here’s a look at the teams that landed the No. 1 pick the past five seasons and their draft position going into the lottery:

• 2024 – Atlanta Hawks (10th position, 3% chance)
• 2023 – San Antonio Spurs (3rd position, 14% chance)
• 2022 – Orlando Magic (2nd position, 14% chance)
• 2021 – Detroit Pistons (2nd position, 14% chance)
• 2020 – Minnesota Timberwolves (3rd position, 14% chance)

The Blazers’ most likely draft slot is 10th. They have an 81.9% chance of landing 10th or 11th. They do have a 16.9% chance of landing in the Top 4. Here’s a look at their draft lottery odds:

• 1st overall pick – 3.7%
• 2nd overall pick – 4.0%
• 3rd overall pick – 4.4%
• 4th overall pick – 4.8%
• 10th overall pick – 63.4%
• 11th overall pick – 18.5%
• 12th overall pick – 1.2%

Want to see the Top 4 draft lottery odds for every position in the draft? Tap here to see.

If the Blazers land the top pick, it’s unlikely anyone but Flagg would be their choice. He’s the clear top prospect in this year’s draft.

If they land a pick in the top four, the other top prospects this season, according to ESPN’s Top 100 draft rankings, are:

• Dylan Harper, 6-foot-6 guard, freshman, Rutgers, 21.5 points on 48/33/75 shooting splits (full stats)
• Airious “Ace” Bailey, 6-10 freshman, forward, Rutgers, 19.0 points on 46/35/69 shooting splits (full stats)
• V.J. Edgecombe, 6-3 guard, freshman, Baylor, 16.5 points on 44/34/78 splits (full stats)
• Tre Johnson, 6-6 guard, freshman, Texas, 19.9 points on 43/40/87 splits (full stats)
• Jeremiah Fears, 6-4 guard, freshman, Oklahoma, 17.1 points on 43/28/85 splits (full stats)

If the Blazers don’t move up, and select 10th, 11th or 12th, here’s a look at some of the players who could be drafted in that range, listed in the order of their placement on ESPN’s rankings, which were last updated in late April:

• Kasparas Jakucionis, 6-6 guard, freshman, Illinois, 15.0 points on 44/32/85 splits (full stats)
• Khaman Malauch, 7-2 center, freshman, Duke, 8.6 points on 71/25/77 splits (full stats)
• Kon Knueppel, 6-7 wing, freshman, Duke, 14.4 points on 48/41/91 splits (full stats)
• Derik Queen, 6-10 center, freshman, Maryland, 16.5 points on 53/20/77 splits (full stats)
• Collin Murray-Boyles, 6-7 forward, sophomore, South Carolina, 16.8 points on 59/27/71 splits (full stats)
• Egor Demin, 6-9 guard, freshman, BYU, 10.6 points on 41/27/70 splits (full stats)
• Jase Richardson, 6-3 guard, freshman, Michigan State, 12.1 points on 49/41/84 splits (full stats)
• Carter Bryant, 6-8 wing, freshman, Arizona, 6.5 points on 46/37/70 splits (full stats)
• Noa Essengue, 6-9 forward, 18 years old, Ratiopharm Ulm, 12.4 points on 56/29/73 splits (full stats)
• Liam McNeeley, 6-7 wing, freshman, UConn, 14.5 points on 38/32/87 splits (full stats)

If Portland lands a top-four selection, it’s hard to see them trading that pick. If they land at 10th or lower, they’ll most likely keep the pick and draft a player — but trade offers could still be in play, especially if they’re looking to accelerate their rebuild.

If they were to trade the 10th or 11th pick, what kind of return would the Blazers be looking at? Over the past five years, trades centered around those draft picks usually returned another draft pick (or multiple picks) and a rotation player. Here are a few examples:

• 2023: the Dallas Mavericks traded the 10th overall pick and Davis Bertans to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 12th overall pick. Bertans was coming off a season where he averaged 4.6 points in 45 games (one start).
• 2022: the New York Knicks traded the 11th pick to the Thunder for three protected first-round picks in the 2023 draft, from the Detroit Pistons (top-18 protected), Denver Nuggets (lottery protected) and Washington Wizards (lottery protected).
• 2021: the New Orleans Pelicans traded the 10th pick, Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe to the Memphis Grizzlies for Jonas Valanciunas and the 17th pick. Adams was coming off a season in which he’d averaged 7.6 points and 8.9 rebounds in 58 games (all starts). Bledsoe had averaged 12.2 points in 71 games (70 starts) the previous season. And Valanciunas the previous season had averaged 17.1 points and 12.5 rebounds in 62 games (61 starts)
• 2019: the Minnesota Timberwolves traded the 11th pick and Dario Saric to the Phoenix Suns for the sixth pick. Saric was coming off a season where he averaged 10.6 points in 81 games (41 starts).

So, if the Blazers do end up a later pick in the lottery, the most likely trade return would be another draft pick and/or a rotation player or low-level starter.

The Blazers could also explore packaging the 10th, 11th or 12th pick in a larger deal that includes veterans like Jerami Grant or Anfernee Simons, along with additional assets such as future draft picks, to pursue an established high-level starter or star player. Portland followed a similar blueprint last season in the trade for Deni Avdija, sending a lottery pick in last year’s draft, a future first-rounder, future second-round picks and guard Malcolm Brogdon to Washington. Don’t be surprised if the Blazers go down a similar path again this summer.

Here’s a look at key dates for the NBA offseason:

• May 9-11: NBA G League Combine
• May 11-18: NBA Draft Combine
• May 12: NBA Draft lottery
• June 25-26: NBA Draft
• June 30: Start of NBA free agency
• July 10-20: Las Vegas Summer League

Google and ChatGPT was used for some of the research for this article.