Can the Cleveland Cavaliers pull off a first-round sweep against the Miami Heat?
Cleveland blew out the Heat in Game 3 in Miami, and it now has a 3-0 series lead that has been insurmountable in NBA history (no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series).
Miami is set as a sizable underdog in Game 4, and it makes sense since the Cavs have the best against the spread record on the road in the 2024-25 season.
After making a run from the No. 10 seed to the No. 8 seed through the play-in tournament, Miami has been outclassed in this series outside of a small comeback in Game 2 before Donovan Mitchell eventually buried the Heat down th stretch.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 4.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Cavs Injury Report
Heat Injury Report
Cleveland Cavaliers Best NBA Prop Bet
Through three games in this series, Evan Mobley has struggled a bit on the glass, grabbing seven, six and six boards. He’s averaging 12.7 potential rebounds per game in the postseason, but the Cavs big man has been pulled away from the bucket at times while guarding Bam Adebayo.
This line is a little high for my liking, especially since Mobley averaged less than 10 boards per game (9.3) during the regular season.
Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet
Heat guard Davion Mitchell has been awesome since the start of the play-in tournament, scoring 15 or more points in every game, including all three games in this series.
Overall in the series against Cleveland, the former lottery pick is averaging 17.3 points per game while shooting 68.8 percent from the field and 66.7 percent from beyond the arc.
This has been a trend for Mitchell for a while, as he averaged 12.1 points per game over his last 14 games in the regular season. Now that he’s starting for Miami, Mitchell is a must-bet in this market in win-or-go-home Game 4.
This is a pretty simple bet, as I think the Cavs are going to make quick work of Miami to advance to the second round.
The Cavs are the best team in the NBA against the spread on the road this season, going 27-15 overall Meanwhile, the Heat fell to 9-7 against the spread as home underdogs with Saturday’s loss.
Cleveland is rolling in the series, posting an offensive rating of 134.1 – the highest rating in the NBA this postseason. Miami, on the other hand, is 10th in offensive rating despite ranking second (behind only the Cavs) in effective field goal percentage.
The Heat simply don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with this Cavs team that was No. 1 in the NBA in offense in the regular season.
Pick: Cavs -8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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