The Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers have played some high-scoring matchups in the second round of the NBA playoffs, which can be great for prop bettors that want to take some OVERs.
On Sunday, I have a pair of OVER points props that I’m targeting, including one for Donovan Mitchell in Game 4. Mitchell has been lights out in this series, scoring 33 or more points in every game to push his postseason average in 2025 over 31 points per game.
However, I’m also fading a star guard, as Tyrese Haliburton has not shot the ball well from beyond the arc in the playoffs.
Here’s a complete breakdown of the three props to consider for Sunday’s matchup in Indy.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Donovan Mitchell OVER 30.5 Points (-115)
Mitchell has been a problem for the Pacers in this series, as he’s scored 33 or more points for Cleveland in every game.
On top of that, Mitchell has back-to-back games with 43 or more points, willing the Cavs to a win in Game 3 on Friday night.
This number is certainly inflated for Mitchell, but with the Cavs banged up and Garland limited (in part due to foul trouble) to less than 25 minutes in Game 3, I think Mitchell may need to put his cape on once again to even this series.
The All-Star guard took 29 shots and 14 free throws in Game 3 and has attempted 89 shots in three games in this series. He’s going to see another game of huge usage on Sunday, and he has become one of the better playoff scorers of his generation.
For his career, Mitchell is averaging 28.5 points per game in the playoffs, including an impressive 31.3 per game this season.
Bennedict Mathurin OVER 13.5 Points (+100)
Should the Pacers look to play Bennedict Mathurin more in this series?
The young wing has been great so far, averaging 17.7 points per game while shooting 51.6 percent from the field and 43.8 percent from 3 in this series. However, the Pacers and Rick Carlisle are playing him less than 24 minutes per game.
Mathuring has 19 and 23 points in his last two matchups despite taking just 10, 10 and 11 shots in his three games in this series.
A microwave scorer off the bench, Mathurin could be in line for some more usage if Indy needs offense in Game 4. I think he’s a value bet at his number since he’s almost a lock to get up double-digit attempts – even if he plays limited minutes.
Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-145)
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points why Haliburton is a fade candidate on Sunday:
Tyrese Haliburton has hit a ton of clutch shots this postseason, but he’s coming off a dreadful showing in Game 3, putting up just four points on 2-of-8 shooting from the field (0-for-1 from 3).
This continues a concerning trend for Haliburton from beyond the arc, as he’s shooting just 30.0 percent from 3 on 50 attempts this postseason, hitting two or fewer shots from beyond the arc in six of his eight games.
The Cavs have also done a good job of taking away the 3 from Haliburton in this series. He’s attempted just nine 3-pointers overall and just three total over his last two games.
With that usage, he’s awfully tough to trust in this market, especially since the Pacers star has shot the ball well below his season average in the playoffs.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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