There’s been some major movement in the latest odds to win the NBA Finals after the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors both picked up wins on Monday night in their respective Game 4 matchups.
Cleveland blew out the Miami Heat for the second game in a row at home, sweeping the series and sending it to the second round for the second time in as many seasons. Donovan Mitchell and company didn’t even need Darius Garland (toe) to win the last two games. Hopefully for the Cavs, Garland will be able to return in the second round.
Meanwhile, out West, the Warriors and Rockets played yet another close game on Monday night. It was a seesaw affair, but Golden State ended up pulling out a win behind some huge defensive stops, timely buckets from Jimmy Butler and a ton of big 3-point shots from Buddy Hield and Brandin Podziemski.
While Golden State has some work to do to advance to the second round, it has a 3-1 series lead as things shift back to Houston.
Both of these teams saw their NBA Finals odds jump on Monday night, so let’s take a look at the current market and where every team stands before the four games on Tuesday, April 29.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Cavs are starting to enter some interesting territory, as they are one of three teams set at shorter than 10/1 odds at DraftKings. Cleveland has already secured home court through the Eastern Conference Finals, and it was dominant in the first round against Miami.
The Cavs posted the best offensive rating and net rating in the NBA during their first-round series, blowing out the Heat twice in Miami.
All season long, Cleveland has been an elite offense, and it showed that even with an All-Star like Garland out of the lineup, it can still dominate the inferior teams in the Eastern Conference. While the Cavs are still behind the Thunder and Celtics in the latest odds, their price is likely only going to shrink if they play this well to open the second round.
Oddsmakers had set the Warriors as favorites to advance through the first round against the Rockets, but a Game 2 loss made things a little interesting in the futures market.
However, with the Warriors taking care of business at home, the odds have now jumped in the Warrriors’ favor, as they’re the No. 4 choice to win the NBA Finals. Golden State is one of four teams at shorter than 20/1 in the latest odds.
As long as Jimmy Butler, Steph Curry and Draymond Green are healthy, the Warriors are going to be a tough team to beat. They were the No. 1 defense in the NBA after the Butler trade, and Golden State has won a bunch of close games against this scrappy Houston squad.
The Warriors will look to finish out their series in Game 5, as more rest for their veterans will go a long way before the second round.
When looking at the latest NBA Finals odds, I can’t help but think that the Indiana Pacers are undervalued at their current price.
Tyrese Haliburton and company are a near lock to make the second round, as they are up 3-1 on the Milwaukee Bucks, who have lost Damian Lillard for the remainder of the 2024-25 season with a torn Achilles.
The Pacers are favored to win Game 5 on Tuesday, yet they are +7000 to win the the title, behind the Los Angeles Lakers (+4000) who are down three games to one in their first-round matchup.
While Indiana may not have the star power that Cleveland or Boston does, the Pacers did make the Eastern Conference Finals as a No. 6 seed in the 2023-24 season. Based on their situation in their first-round series, the Pacers have some value for a team that is almost guaranteed to be amongst the final eight left in the playoffs.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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