Oldfield’s prediction: Although James Harden’s playoff track record is far from stellar, bettors should expect “The Beard” to step up in the first-round opener against Denver.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Los Angeles Clippers guard James Harden.
The Denver Nuggets rolled the dice with big changes on the eve of the playoffs, and that wager will be put to the test as their first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers tips off on Saturday.
Though Denver is 3-0 since moving on from Michael Malone and Calvin Booth, my Clippers vs Nuggets predictions signal a statement start for L.A.’s big guns in Game 1.
Check out my NBA picks and top betting tips for this April 19 battle.
Who will win Clippers vs Nuggets Game 1?
As strange as it feels to say, the Clippers are entering a postseason series as the healthier, more stable team. They’ve put together a 15-2 run down the stretch, and their superior depth gives Ty Lue more cards to play.
I see L.A. doing just enough to stifle Nikola Jokic’s supporting cast this weekend.
Clippers vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet: James Harden Over 22.5 points (-120 at bet365)
The book has been written on James Harden in the playoffs, and there are some ugly chapters in there. But it’s not too late to tweak the ending.
Harden is coming off a terrific year as the Los Angeles Clippers’ durable offensive hub, and I’m picking him to carry on where he left off against Golden State in last weekend’s vital victory. ‘The Beard’ came through that afternoon with 39 points, including 12 of L.A.’s 13 points in overtime, and he’s well placed to cash the Over on 22.5 points here.
It helps that Harden is on a tear from downtown, with a 15-for-31 hot streak across his last four games. He’s finished with 23+ points in four of his past five contests, averaging 25.9 points per game in April.
That’s the aggressive version of Harden that the Clippers will need to steal this series against the Denver Nuggets. With Aaron Gordon taking on the Kawhi Leonard assignment, ‘The Beard’ will have his pick of Denver targets to attack. When he’s not overpowering Christian Braun, look for him to pull Michael Porter Jr. into the pick and roll and prey on Nikola Jokic’s preference to drop back into the paint.
Most importantly, Harden has all the right ingredients around him, with Kawhi as a crunch-time killer, Norman Powell and Bogdan Bogdanovic as 3-point snipers, and Ivica Zubac as an imposing last line of defense.
That paves the way for Harden to cook. Boosted by a steady diet of free throws, I see him leading the charge in Game 1.
Clippers vs Nuggets same-game parlay
James Harden Over 22.5 points
Clippers moneyline
Christian Braun Over 0.5 threes
The Clippers have been ATS kings this year (46-35-1), but I’ll go a step further and take the visitors to snatch this opening contest. L.A. has the depth and shooting to capitalize on the minutes when Jokic sits, and there’s a lot to like on the defensive end when Kawhi, Zubac, and Kris Dunn share the floor.
Denver had dropped four in a row before its three-game burst last week, and even a monster Joker stat line might not be enough if Jamal Murray is slowed down by the combination of a nagging hamstring injury and the Clippers’ perimeter stoppers. Though the teams split their regular season series, Leonard missed all four matchups.
Even with L.A. likely to start with one-on-one coverage on Jokic, there should be open shots for Nuggets’ shooters, and I like Braun to step up in this spot.
He’s made at least one 3-pointer in 16 of his past 21 outings, but he’s a natural place to start if the Clippers decide to sag off shooters and send extra help into the paint. As long as Braun avoids foul trouble against Harden, this prop feels like a solid third leg for my SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Clippers vs Nuggets odds
Clippers vs Nuggets live odds
Clippers vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +3 (-110) | Denver -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +130 | Denver -155
- Over/Under: Over 225 (-110) | Under 225 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Clippers vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Denver enters as a narrow favorite but is just 14-13 since the All-Star Break.
- Though the Clippers posted a shaky 20-21 road record this season, they’ve won seven of their last nine contests away from Intuit Dome.
- L.A. has cashed the Over in four of its last five games, but the Under is 6-3-1 in the past 10 matchups between these teams.
- Denver has hit the 1H Over in 26 of its last 39 outings at Ball Arena.
Clippers vs Nuggets trend
The Over went 48-33 for Denver during the regular season. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Clippers vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Saturday, 4-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Clippers vs Nuggets latest injuries
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