Eno Sarris’ MLB starting pitcher rankings for the rest of 2025

Blurb Process

Somehow Skubal got better. He won the Cy Young Award and then he added velocity, made his breaking balls better and improved his already league-leading command. His strikeout rate is godly, his walk rate is minuscule and he’s breaking Tigers velocity records with his final pitches on complete game shutouts. There’s literally nothing to not like. Well, just that old injury ledger. Old history by now?

Blurb Process

Somehow Skubal got better. He won the Cy Young Award and then he added velocity, made his breaking balls better and improved his already league-leading command. His strikeout rate is godly, his walk rate is minuscule and he’s breaking Tigers velocity records with his final pitches on complete game shutouts. There’s literally nothing to not like. Well, just that old injury ledger. Old history by now?

Blurb Process

Skenes did nothing to deserve a demotion, really. It’s just that his teammates won’t be handing him many wins, so that category won’t be a standout. And maybe it’s also that his arsenal is more geared toward suppressing power than it is to the elite swing-and-miss we saw last year. That old discussion, of his fastball shape and how it’s not ideal, has resurfaced in the light of a strikeout rate that is more above-average than league-leading. He’s still a great pitcher, though.

Blurb Process

Skenes did nothing to deserve a demotion, really. It’s just that his teammates won’t be handing him many wins, so that category won’t be a standout. And maybe it’s also that his arsenal is more geared toward suppressing power than it is to the elite swing-and-miss we saw last year. That old discussion, of his fastball shape and how it’s not ideal, has resurfaced in the light of a strikeout rate that is more above-average than league-leading. He’s still a great pitcher, though.

Blurb Process

Occasionally, one of Wheeler’s three fastballs falls below average by Stuff+ — who knows why. One of the many little dials goes in the wrong direction, I guess. He’s still got really good velocity, and whenever that happens with one of his three fastballs, he’s still got the other two to play with. He continues to innovate — this year he added ride to the fastball, drop to the curveball and sinker and sweep to the sweeper — just to stay on top of the heap. Once you figure in consistency over multiple seasons, he becomes the top pitcher in baseball.

Blurb Process

Occasionally, one of Wheeler’s three fastballs falls below average by Stuff+ — who knows why. One of the many little dials goes in the wrong direction, I guess. He’s still got really good velocity, and whenever that happens with one of his three fastballs, he’s still got the other two to play with. He continues to innovate — this year he added ride to the fastball, drop to the curveball and sinker and sweep to the sweeper — just to stay on top of the heap. Once you figure in consistency over multiple seasons, he becomes the top pitcher in baseball.

Blurb Process

Most of the changes in Crochet’s arsenal came over the course of last year, when he added the sinker and de-emphasized the the slider in favor of the cutter. But they were good changes because it’s helped him be less of a two-pitch guy. Now, more than a quarter of the time, batters will get something other than those two dominant pitches, and that is helping the lefty get deeper into games. This is proceeding just as planned.

Blurb Process

Most of the changes in Crochet’s arsenal came over the course of last year, when he added the sinker and de-emphasized the the slider in favor of the cutter. But they were good changes because it’s helped him be less of a two-pitch guy. Now, more than a quarter of the time, batters will get something other than those two dominant pitches, and that is helping the lefty get deeper into games. This is proceeding just as planned.

Blurb Process

A couple of games early on had some worried that Sale wasn’t going to have a dominant season, but then he leaned into the slider, upped its usage and went off. Since he started throwing the slider more than half the time, he has a 1.62 ERA with 42 strikeouts and seven walks in 33 1/3 innings — and that includes a start in Coors! His pitch-type grades say that pitching backward is the right plan, but there could be some worry that the league adjusts to this new reality, or that the injury bug bites him again.

Blurb Process

A couple of games early on had some worried that Sale wasn’t going to have a dominant season, but then he leaned into the slider, upped its usage and went off. Since he started throwing the slider more than half the time, he has a 1.62 ERA with 42 strikeouts and seven walks in 33 1/3 innings — and that includes a start in Coors! His pitch-type grades say that pitching backward is the right plan, but there could be some worry that the league adjusts to this new reality, or that the injury bug bites him again.

Blurb Process

The Yankees had ideas for Fried. They improved his sinker, giving it more drop, and even got more drop on that curveball he’s thrown forever. He’s throwing harder than ever, and he’s probably the best version of himself, which is saying something for a pitcher who had a four-year ERA under three going into this season. The only thing that keeps him out of the top four is a somewhat pedestrian strikeout rate. He’s succeeded with that K rate before, but it’s still a scoring category in most leagues.

Blurb Process

The Yankees had ideas for Fried. They improved his sinker, giving it more drop, and even got more drop on that curveball he’s thrown forever. He’s throwing harder than ever, and he’s probably the best version of himself, which is saying something for a pitcher who had a four-year ERA under three going into this season. The only thing that keeps him out of the top four is a somewhat pedestrian strikeout rate. He’s succeeded with that K rate before, but it’s still a scoring category in most leagues.

Blurb Process

He may not have standout Stuff+, but at this point, Yamamoto has shown us that he can get major-league results, and his elite strikeout and walk rates mean a little more now than the model. And even the model has some surprises under the hood — his splitter is equally good against both lefties and righties, and with his sinker and four-seam, he always has at least a league-average fastball against each hand as well. The splitter is the north star, and he’s found a way to build around that to great success.

Blurb Process

He may not have standout Stuff+, but at this point, Yamamoto has shown us that he can get major-league results, and his elite strikeout and walk rates mean a little more now than the model. And even the model has some surprises under the hood — his splitter is equally good against both lefties and righties, and with his sinker and four-seam, he always has at least a league-average fastball against each hand as well. The splitter is the north star, and he’s found a way to build around that to great success.

Blurb Process

The strikeouts. The strikeouts are new for Webb. They’ve come because Webb has added a cutter, and not because the cutter is all that good. The cutter is boring. But it’s a completely different movement profile, one that helps make his four-seam, sinker, change, and slider all better by living in the middle of the movement plot. He’s always had the command, and the ground balls, and the dominance against righties, and now he’s striking out nearly a third of the lefties he’s facing. He’ll compete for the NL Cy Young Award.

Blurb Process

The strikeouts. The strikeouts are new for Webb. They’ve come because Webb has added a cutter, and not because the cutter is all that good. The cutter is boring. But it’s a completely different movement profile, one that helps make his four-seam, sinker, change, and slider all better by living in the middle of the movement plot. He’s always had the command, and the ground balls, and the dominance against righties, and now he’s striking out nearly a third of the lefties he’s facing. He’ll compete for the NL Cy Young Award.

Blurb Process

Brown is just straight dominating with heat. That sinker he added last year is nasty — best among starters in Stuff+ — and it’s setting up his four-seam as an action pitch, to the point that batters are “hitting” .090 on it. If there is a nit to pick, it’s that the secondaries aren’t quite as good as the fastballs, but the knuckle curve scores well by Stuff+ and should be able to handle more usage if the fastball-heavy approach hits a snag.

Blurb Process

Brown is just straight dominating with heat. That sinker he added last year is nasty — best among starters in Stuff+ — and it’s setting up his four-seam as an action pitch, to the point that batters are “hitting” .090 on it. If there is a nit to pick, it’s that the secondaries aren’t quite as good as the fastballs, but the knuckle curve scores well by Stuff+ and should be able to handle more usage if the fastball-heavy approach hits a snag.

Blurb Process

It wasn’t the greatest return from injury, in terms of strikeouts or command (second-worst location numbers of the year), but it was good to see the groin injury was behind Greene, and that the stuff was mostly there. The extreme velocity and the new splitter, as well as his decision to just fill up the zone with nastiness (highest zone rate of his career) is what makes him elite, and all that was still there in his return.

Blurb Process

It wasn’t the greatest return from injury, in terms of strikeouts or command (second-worst location numbers of the year), but it was good to see the groin injury was behind Greene, and that the stuff was mostly there. The extreme velocity and the new splitter, as well as his decision to just fill up the zone with nastiness (highest zone rate of his career) is what makes him elite, and all that was still there in his return.

Blurb Process

It’s not just the groin injury that pushed Ragans down in the projections (31 going forward by OOPSY projections) — it’s that he’s lost some stuff. It’s not super obvious why, at first, because his fastball velocity is the same as it ever was, but it’s still velocity related. He’s lost gas on all of his secondaries, to varying degrees. He’ll be back, and he’ll be good, but will he be more a top-10 guy like he was last year, or not quite as good?

Blurb Process

It’s not just the groin injury that pushed Ragans down in the projections (31 going forward by OOPSY projections) — it’s that he’s lost some stuff. It’s not super obvious why, at first, because his fastball velocity is the same as it ever was, but it’s still velocity related. He’s lost gas on all of his secondaries, to varying degrees. He’ll be back, and he’ll be good, but will he be more a top-10 guy like he was last year, or not quite as good?

Blurb Process

By projections, Gilbert should be a top-five pitcher. He was pitching that way before injury, too, using an improved splitter to increase his strikeout rate to elite territory. But flexor strains are tricky. They have been shown to be a precusor to more devastating elbow injuries in peer-reviewed studies in the past, so it’s no minor thing. That said, he looks healthy and on track for a start this week.

Blurb Process

By projections, Gilbert should be a top-five pitcher. He was pitching that way before injury, too, using an improved splitter to increase his strikeout rate to elite territory. But flexor strains are tricky. They have been shown to be a precusor to more devastating elbow injuries in peer-reviewed studies in the past, so it’s no minor thing. That said, he looks healthy and on track for a start this week.

Blurb Process

Strikeout-minus-walk rate is just about tied with Stuff+ as the most predictive statistic for a pitcher in season, and by strikeouts-minus-walks, Cease is a top-15 pitcher. It’s true that his arsenal is small (basically two pitches), and that he can be prone to home runs (because of the small arsenal?), but it’s also true that he’s been a little unlucky this year on balls in play (.320 BABIP) and that he has the stuff to keep fueling those strikeouts. Better ERA days are probably ahead.

Blurb Process

Strikeout-minus-walk rate is just about tied with Stuff+ as the most predictive statistic for a pitcher in season, and by strikeouts-minus-walks, Cease is a top-15 pitcher. It’s true that his arsenal is small (basically two pitches), and that he can be prone to home runs (because of the small arsenal?), but it’s also true that he’s been a little unlucky this year on balls in play (.320 BABIP) and that he has the stuff to keep fueling those strikeouts. Better ERA days are probably ahead.

Blurb Process

Who knows why deGrom didn’t strike out a batter against the Blue Jays (and only four against the Cardinals). He is in the midst of a momentary step back in stuff, with his fastball down a tick off the start before, his slider dropping under 89 mph for the first time, and his overall Stuff+ dipping under 100 for two starts in a row now. But he started the year close to a lot of those averages and had been adding stuff back in over the course of the first two months. Here’s to betting it is a temporary blip. He didn’t give up many runs in either start, at least.

Blurb Process

Who knows why deGrom didn’t strike out a batter against the Blue Jays (and only four against the Cardinals). He is in the midst of a momentary step back in stuff, with his fastball down a tick off the start before, his slider dropping under 89 mph for the first time, and his overall Stuff+ dipping under 100 for two starts in a row now. But he started the year close to a lot of those averages and had been adding stuff back in over the course of the first two months. Here’s to betting it is a temporary blip. He didn’t give up many runs in either start, at least.

Blurb Process

The first two starts back weren’t great for Kirby. The stuff came back after he lost time to shoulder inflammation, but the characteristic command has not. He’s been more middle-middle than he’s been in the past, at least. The good news is that command fluctuates more start-to-start than stuff, so hopefully this is just him shaking the rust off. Especially since he’s the “nine-pocket god” and command genius, as Bryce Miller called him in spring.

Blurb Process

The first two starts back weren’t great for Kirby. The stuff came back after he lost time to shoulder inflammation, but the characteristic command has not. He’s been more middle-middle than he’s been in the past, at least. The good news is that command fluctuates more start-to-start than stuff, so hopefully this is just him shaking the rust off. Especially since he’s the “nine-pocket god” and command genius, as Bryce Miller called him in spring.

Blurb Process

They don’t look anything alike in terms of stature or even pitch shapes, but there is something similar about Woo and Brown. They both have excellent fastballs and primarily throw two hard pitches and a breaking ball. Woo’s stuff may not be quite as good, so he’s had a couple of blowups, but other than those two games, there are a ton of great games on his ledger. It may not come with a ton of strikeouts, but Woo’s got something sustainable going.

Blurb Process

They don’t look anything alike in terms of stature or even pitch shapes, but there is something similar about Woo and Brown. They both have excellent fastballs and primarily throw two hard pitches and a breaking ball. Woo’s stuff may not be quite as good, so he’s had a couple of blowups, but other than those two games, there are a ton of great games on his ledger. It may not come with a ton of strikeouts, but Woo’s got something sustainable going.

Blurb Process

He’s healthy, and the results say he’s dealing, so no need to look any further at Peralta’s line, right? No need to worry about the career-worst strikeout rate, and the slight tick up in walks? The fact that his slider has all but disappeared? Probably not. He’s dealing, and he’s healthy.

Blurb Process

He’s healthy, and the results say he’s dealing, so no need to look any further at Peralta’s line, right? No need to worry about the career-worst strikeout rate, and the slight tick up in walks? The fact that his slider has all but disappeared? Probably not. He’s dealing, and he’s healthy.

Blurb Process

The velocity is a little shaky for Ryan — he’s ranged from 91.5 to 94.4 mph in his outings this year and sat 94 last season — but the results have been steady. His fastball is still his best pitch relative to the league, but he’s found a good mix of sweepers, sliders, and splitters to complement that invisiball, and the strikeouts and walks are impeccable. The only risk comes from durability, and a fluctuating home run rate that’s often tied to that number on the radar gun.

Blurb Process

The velocity is a little shaky for Ryan — he’s ranged from 91.5 to 94.4 mph in his outings this year and sat 94 last season — but the results have been steady. His fastball is still his best pitch relative to the league, but he’s found a good mix of sweepers, sliders, and splitters to complement that invisiball, and the strikeouts and walks are impeccable. The only risk comes from durability, and a fluctuating home run rate that’s often tied to that number on the radar gun.

Blurb Process

It’s probably because of inconsistent command, but there’s always one stretch every year where everyone doubts Valdez. The past two postseasons have been bad, and his May last year was a lot like his April this year — big ERAs, big walk rates, looks lost out there. But then he reals off a stretch that matches his stuff. He had an ERA under two in the second half last year, and this May he seems well on his way to another underrated season.

Blurb Process

It’s probably because of inconsistent command, but there’s always one stretch every year where everyone doubts Valdez. The past two postseasons have been bad, and his May last year was a lot like his April this year — big ERAs, big walk rates, looks lost out there. But then he reals off a stretch that matches his stuff. He had an ERA under two in the second half last year, and this May he seems well on his way to another underrated season.

Blurb Process

He said he was going to add a pitch, and then he didn’t. He came in sitting in the high 90s this spring, and he’s fallen back to just a tick over last year. He doesn’t really have the right fastball to pitch to righties. But have you seen Sánchez pitch? He’s got the goods. That might be the best changeup in the game, and this year’s strikeout rate — if it holds — gives him upside to rank even higher than this when all is said and done.

Blurb Process

He said he was going to add a pitch, and then he didn’t. He came in sitting in the high 90s this spring, and he’s fallen back to just a tick over last year. He doesn’t really have the right fastball to pitch to righties. But have you seen Sánchez pitch? He’s got the goods. That might be the best changeup in the game, and this year’s strikeout rate — if it holds — gives him upside to rank even higher than this when all is said and done.

Blurb Process

A bit of a kitchen sinker, Schwellenbach gets it done by throwing six different pitch types with command more than anything. He cuts his fastball a little to keep it from having a “normal” shape for his arm slot, and his splitter is becoming more and more of a weapon over time, but it’s really about how good he is at pitching, and keeping batters on their toes, than about blowing it by them with the biggest velocity. He may not have the top-end strikeout rates of the aces above him on that list, but he might also be a great bet to continue doing this for a long time.

Blurb Process

A bit of a kitchen sinker, Schwellenbach gets it done by throwing six different pitch types with command more than anything. He cuts his fastball a little to keep it from having a “normal” shape for his arm slot, and his splitter is becoming more and more of a weapon over time, but it’s really about how good he is at pitching, and keeping batters on their toes, than about blowing it by them with the biggest velocity. He may not have the top-end strikeout rates of the aces above him on that list, but he might also be a great bet to continue doing this for a long time.

Blurb Process

Rasmussen is nasty. He throws a 96 mph fastball that has about an inch more ride than you’d expect given his arm slot, so it’s not poor shape. Then there’s the 90 mph gyro slider that’s labeled a cutter — battters are slugging under .300 on the pitch even though he throws it all the time. He throws a sweeper with top-10 velocity among starters, and has developed a pretty good sinker. He’s struck out more batters than he is doing right now, and his stuff is in line with pre-injury numbers, so the bet here is that the Ks will come.

Blurb Process

Rasmussen is nasty. He throws a 96 mph fastball that has about an inch more ride than you’d expect given his arm slot, so it’s not poor shape. Then there’s the 90 mph gyro slider that’s labeled a cutter — battters are slugging under .300 on the pitch even though he throws it all the time. He throws a sweeper with top-10 velocity among starters, and has developed a pretty good sinker. He’s struck out more batters than he is doing right now, and his stuff is in line with pre-injury numbers, so the bet here is that the Ks will come.

Blurb Process

The changeup is dropping around 4 inches more this year for López, but it’s also a tick and a half slower. The curve’s dropping a little more. He’s lost about a half tick on the fastballs. There are differences this year, but the strikeouts-minus-walks and Stuff+ numbers are almost an exact match for last season. Most likely, he’ll give up a few more homers going forward and be a mid-to-high-threes ERA guy with a great WHIP and a nice win total.

Blurb Process

The changeup is dropping around 4 inches more this year for López, but it’s also a tick and a half slower. The curve’s dropping a little more. He’s lost about a half tick on the fastballs. There are differences this year, but the strikeouts-minus-walks and Stuff+ numbers are almost an exact match for last season. Most likely, he’ll give up a few more homers going forward and be a mid-to-high-threes ERA guy with a great WHIP and a nice win total.

Blurb Process

The OOPSY projections say he’s still a top-10 pitcher, but Stuff+ says that Strider lost something in his last surgery. The radar gun agrees, too. He went from sitting 97-plus before, to maxing out at that number and sitting 95 now. Some use 85 mph as a “magic number” for sliders, where it’s hard to have a bad one faster than that, and it’s tough to have a good one slower than that. Strider’s slider went from sitting 86 in 2023 to sitting 84 this saeson. Maybe the velo will come back with time, but three starts of velo coming back from the injured list is very predictive of future velocity, studies have found.

Blurb Process

The OOPSY projections say he’s still a top-10 pitcher, but Stuff+ says that Strider lost something in his last surgery. The radar gun agrees, too. He went from sitting 97-plus before, to maxing out at that number and sitting 95 now. Some use 85 mph as a “magic number” for sliders, where it’s hard to have a bad one faster than that, and it’s tough to have a good one slower than that. Strider’s slider went from sitting 86 in 2023 to sitting 84 this saeson. Maybe the velo will come back with time, but three starts of velo coming back from the injured list is very predictive of future velocity, studies have found.

Blurb Process

If he’s on the mound and healthy soon, the 15th-best strikeout-minus-walk rate in baseball means more, predictively speaking, than the slightly above-average Stuff+ number at this point in Michael King’s season and career. And maybe this stint is going to be short, and this will be too low for the Padres’ ace. But docking him 10-ish ranks because he’s not pitching right now seems about right.

Blurb Process

If he’s on the mound and healthy soon, the 15th-best strikeout-minus-walk rate in baseball means more, predictively speaking, than the slightly above-average Stuff+ number at this point in Michael King’s season and career. And maybe this stint is going to be short, and this will be too low for the Padres’ ace. But docking him 10-ish ranks because he’s not pitching right now seems about right.

Blurb Process

Eno Sarris’ MLB starting pitcher rankings for the rest of 2025

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