Expected stats point to Salvador Perez, Dylan Crews as top buy low hitters for fantasy baseball

Over a six-month season, everyone is going to have bad stretches, and for some, that means a lackluster start to the year. Already, good players are getting dropped in your leagues. Others have too much of a pedigree to hit the waiver wire, but their managers may be more than happy to unload them for a discount. Here I’m going to use Statcast’s expected stats to try to find some players who should start producing soon.

Here are the top 10 qualified hitters with the largest gap between their expected slugging and actual slugging percentage (the lists are similar if you sort by the differences in expected batting average or wOBA). 

By his expected stats, Salvador Perez is one of the top hitters in the league, but the results on the field have been abysmal. His 15.7% barrel rate would be his highest since 2021. The main culprit is his .224 BABIP, which is 65 points below his career average. He’s pulling the ball at a high rate and hitting a lot of flies, but not nearly enough to explain the low success on balls in play. Also, pulled flies are a good thing for power hitters. His park doesn’t help, but he has dealt with that his whole career. The only symptom I see worth monitoring is his decreased bat speed as compared to last year. That hasn’t stopped him from making solid contact, but there may be some long-term wear on his body from being in the lineup every day, mostly at catcher. 

Perhaps you want to shop the waiver wire for a new catcher, where you will almost certainly find Ryan Jeffers and Luis Torrens. Nearly half of Jeffers’ batted balls are flies, but none of them have left the yard as of this writing. His barrel rate is down a notch, but the power should come back. That said, he’s a career .230 hitter, and I’d anticipate the expected stats to regress as much as his actual stats. He’s a cromulent option, but I don’t see a breakout coming. 

As for Torrens, he has flattened out his swing and tripled his barrel rate. That will come down, but the batting average ought to rise a bit. I’d like to think he’s primed for an out-of-nowhere breakout, but the more likely scenario is he drifts back into a part-time role once Francisco Alvarez returns and isn’t fantasy-relevant by early May.

There is no particular reason Andrew Vaughn should have a .150 BABIP. His expected stats are all in the range of his career norms. He should get back to being a .250 average, 20-homer kind of guy, which isn’t especially exciting (especially on a team that has been 30% worse than league average on offense), but he ought to be usable in 15-team leagues, and there is a good chance he only costs a roster spot right now.

Max Muncy (the one on the Dodgers) has expected stats in line with his usual low-average-slugger routine, but there are reasons for concern. His K rate, swinging strike rate and walk rate have all gone in the wrong direction. He missed big chunks of last year, and eventually, he’s likely to lose playing time against lefties. He will have weeks where he’s crushing everything and making this paragraph look silly, but with each year, the risk rises and the rewards slip a bit. He can still fit on your roster, but I wouldn’t want to pay much at this point.

Brandon Lowe is the other entry on this list who has historically made great contact between IL stints. The weird part here is that his swing decisions have been better, but his contact rate has tumbled. His BABIP and HR/FB are normal enough, and the x-stats look as off as his results, just in different directions. Part of the answer could lie in how he’s being pitched — he is seeing fewer four-seamers this year, and he has struggled against the slower stuff. I feel on slightly better footing with Lowe than Muncy, but it’s a similar overall story — the results should be better, but the injury history and red flags are real.

While we’re at it, Mike Trout is still Mike Trout; he’s just running a .128 BABIP. He is becoming increasingly devoted to hitting the ball in the air, and he underperformed his xBA in a similar way in 126 PAs last year, but as always, the only thing to worry about is his health. When he’s on the field, Trout remains one of the best hitters in the sport. 

Yordan Alvarez has been cold and unlucky so far this year, but something tells me the 27-year-old with a career 163 wRC+ didn’t suddenly forget how to hit. If a manager is willing to offer you a discount, take it. 

It’s probably too late to buy low on Dylan Crews, because he just had a monster week, which included a two-homer day in Colorado. The strikeout rate has come down to a more manageable 25%, and he’s fought his way out of the eighth and ninth spots in the lineup. I still see a guy figuring out his approach against major league pitching, but the speed is elite, and the other tools are good enough. That profile tends to lean toward overpriced in fantasy, because the upside is a 20-40 season. Snap him up if he’s somehow still on your wire, but otherwise, you might want to wait for a colder week before throwing out an offer. 

A few quick notes before we go:

Brandon Nimmo is swinging more, but the increase is nearly all on pitches in the zone. He’s also hitting the ball harder. Like Perez, the bat and sprint speeds are lower, but I trust we’ll see good production as the weather warms up.

Jordan Westburg is making more and better contact. His BABIP is under .200. See if you can get him on the cheap.

The process stats all say Marcus Semien is fine, but I’m still nervous. Last year wasn’t great, and he’s 34 now. The .167 BABIP has about 100 points of headroom, and that should bring him close to who he’s supposed to be, but the upside feels more good than great.

Adley Rutschman may be laying the groundwork for a big summer. The walk rate and barrel rate have improved, and the contact rate remains elite. A sub-.200 BABIP is masking all of that. Pay for who he’s been, and you might get plenty more.

(Top photo of Dylan Crews: Andrew Wevers / Getty Images)

This post was originally published on this site