The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Denver Nuggets for Game 7 in the Western Conference semifinals and it’s the only game on the schedule on Sunday in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. NBA player props are growing in popularity and there’s instant gratification in betting on the first player to score a field goal. The latest Thunder vs. Nuggets odds list Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the +450 favorite to score the first field goal and there are seven players listed at +850 or better on the board. So who are the best values for first-basket scorer on Sunday in Nuggets vs. Thunder? Tipoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET.
SportsLine expert handicapper Jimmie Kaylor has broken down the NBA odds and locked in three first basket scorer prop bets for Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 7. Kaylor is a handicapper and DFS pro for SportsLine who won a DraftKings Millionaire contest in 2022 and also has multiple five-figure tournament wins on his DFS resume. Here are Kaylor’s top three first basket scorer bets for Game 7.
Here are his top three choices:
- Chet Holmgren (+500
- Jamal Murray (+650)
- Nikola Jokic (+550)
Chet Holmgren (+500 at FanDuel)
Holmgren missed 50 games during the regular season but he’s been back for the 2025 NBA Playoffs and he’s been playing well. He’s averaging 16.0 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game and the underlying data lends itself well to Holmgren as the first-basket scorer on Sunday night.
“Holmgren has the most first shot attempts of any on the Thunder by a fairly wide margin. The former Gonzaga standout has attempted the first shot of the game for OKC in 22% of the 41 games he’s started. Holmgren is averaging 16.0 points and 9.6 rebounds during the postseason,” Kaylor said.
Jamal Murray (+650 at FanDuel)
Murray averaged a career-high 21.4 points per game this season and he’s averaging 22.5 points per game this postseason while playing a league-leading 41.8 minutes per night. He’s scored 25 or more points in three of his last four outings and he’ll have a solid chance to have the ball in his hands early in Game 7.
“The Nuggets have been successful when it comes to winning the opening tip in this series, so there is a strong likelihood Denver gets the first possession in Game 7. If that proves to be the case, the Nuggets will likely immediately look to go to their two-man game with Murray and Nikola Jokic running the high pick-and-roll. With Jokic being arguably the best passer in the NBA, I like Murray’s chances at getting the Nuggets’ first shot attempt of the game. Murray is averaging 22.5 points, 5.5 assists, and 5.2 rebounds per game during the postseason,” Kaylor said, with the best NBA odds for Murray coming at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Nikola Jokic (+550 at FanDuel)
Arguably the most unconventional NBA MVP in the league’s history, Jokic is incredibly involved in everything that the Nuggets do. Denver has won tips consistently in the series and he’ll likely find himself in some sort of screen-and-roll action early, with the potential to score on a pick-and-pop, a cut to the rim or on the glass.
“As previously mentioned, Denver has had success on jump balls in this series. Jokic will likely be heavily involved in the Nuggets’ first possession, and he is always a threat on the offensive glass and has a knack for scoring put-back buckets,” Kaylor said. “Jokic is averaging 26.7 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game during the postseason.”
Want more NBA picks for Sunday?
You’ve seen an expert’s NBA prop picks for first basket scorer on Sunday. Now, get NBA projections for every prop from the SportsLine model which is on a 159-117 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season.
You can also view more expert betting advice before making Sunday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks, which includes a pick for Game 7, from an expert who is 129-101-2 (+1785) over his last 232 NBA picks.
SportsLine has multiple experts who specialize in player props, including Mike Barner, who is 164-116 (+2798) over his last 280 player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Mike Barner is including in his NBA player prop picks for Sunday, which includes a play on Nikola Jokic.
