Yordan Alvarez (HOU): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI, BB.
Yordan Alvarez had a solid day at the plate on Sunday, crushing a third-inning Kris Bubic offering to straightaway center for a three-run home run, finishing with a line of 2-4, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI, BB. This is a line that fantasy owners should be expecting almost daily from Alvarez. Those who don’t own Yordan might be shocked to find out that this was only his third home run of the year. Those who own him already painfully know this, as well as his less-than-stellar slash line of .213/.312/.360. Yikes. So, can Alvarez turn back into the Alpha Rizz he once was?
A quick peek under the hood shows us that nothing has really changed that much. A slight drop in Barrel rate and Hard Hit rate from last season, and a slight increase in what was an already solid K% in 2024 (15% to 18.3%) should affect his results that much. Especially since he’s hitting the ball just as hard as last year (93.8 mph average exit velocity, up 0.5 from 2024) and walking more (13.5 BB%, up 2.6% from 2024). Alvarez’s xBA and xSLG are lower than previous years when he was in the top one percent of the league, but they’re still significantly higher than his actual stats (.212 BA to .250 xBA, and .360 SLG to .469 xSLG).
Yordan’s Process+ rolling chart is also very similar to his chart from early in the 2024 season:
In 2024, that line kept rising, especially after June 1. Expect that to happen in 2025 as well, hopefully a little sooner (May 1 would be nice).
Yes, fantasy baseball is a game that scores wins, losses, and points based on cold, hard results, not xStats. At least I don’t play in any Avg Exit Velocity leagues. But fantasy baseball also rewards its most patient players. Alvarez never lost his rizz. It was within him all along. Give him time, and the cold, hard results and wins for your fantasy team will come.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Sunday:
Andy Pages (LAD): 4-5, HR, R, 4 RBI.
Andy Pages kept doing his best Mookie Betts impression (talk about another struggling star!), hitting his third home run in five games. Pages now had five homers on the season. While he might be red hot right now, he was stone cold just a week ago, hitting .159/.274/.270. Yes, that’s right, his OBP was higher than his SLG. That’s not a profile for fantasy success. His Statcast page is more Dodger blue than last year, except for his fielding stats, which are dark red, as that is the real strength of his game and the main reason he’s on a major league roster. Enjoy the weekend if you streamed him, and move on.
Noelvi Marte (CIN): 3-5, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 SB.
Okay, Noelvi, I get it. You saw my Batter’s Box article last week with you as the lead, where I questioned your ability to stay fantasy relevant after you hit a grand slam off a position player, and you got angry. And then this week, you got revenge, hitting .400 with two home runs (off real pitchers!), eight RBI, and three steals, and you kinda convinced me that you can stay relevant in the Reds’ lineup and in fantasy. Please accept my apologies, it wasn’t personal.
Agustín Ramírez (MIA): 2-5, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Agustín Ramírez can do no wrong in the big leagues. The rookie keeps on crushing the ball, this time having a double-dong game against Seattle. It’s only been 21 plate appearances for the centerpiece return in the Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade with the Yankees, but Statcast is backing up everything the top prospect is doing. Ramirez is a waiver wire pickup from heaven. If he’s still available in your league, grab him while you still can. This lottery ticket might pay off.
Connor Norby (MIA): 3-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
Ramirez’s teammate Connor Norby also had a solid day on Sunday, hitting a homer (his first) and a double, and collecting three RBI vs. the Mariners. Another prospect acquired by the Marlins through a trade, Norby started the season on the IL and has struggled to find his groove since his first at-bat of the season on April 17. The Marlins are also trying to find the best spot to hit Norby in their lineup, as he’s hit as high as first and as low as seventh today. No need to rush to add Norby now, but keep him on your watch list.
Kristian Campbell (BOS): 2-2, 2B, 4 R, 2 RBI, 3 BB, SB.
Kristian Campbell had quite the game on Sunday, reaching base after all five of his plate appearances and scoring four runs in Boston’s blowout win over Cleveland. Campbell has a blistering start to his rookie season, and has kept his ratios elite even over a stretch where he wasn’t accruing many counting stats. The 22-year-old future star will continue to learn and improve as the season goes by, but also expect hills and valleys in production, as with any rookie.
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, 5 RBI.
Ceddanne Rafaela had an interesting journey to a five-RBI day. He started with a sacrifice fly, got his second on a ground rule double that was a routine fly ball to the track that got lost in the sun, then finally got some “legit” RBI by cranking a three-run homer in the seventh inning. Don’t get lost in the box score here. Ceddanne is a fielding-first MLB player with speed on the basepaths and not much else to offer in the form of consistent offense. I’m surprised he’s still 49% owned in Yahoo leagues. That number should be much lower.
Anthony Volpe (NYY): 2-3, 2B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB.
Speaking of players who are owned too much, Anthony Volpe hit his fifth homer of the season, and first since April 2. Wait, does that mean he hit his first four home runs in his first five games on the season, and nothing since? Yup. And Volpe has not been collecting many counting stats until today. 12 of his 17 RBI happened before April 6. His Process+ rolling chart below sums up his season so far pretty well. Why is he still rostered in 85% of Yahoo leagues? Oh, he plays for the Yankees? Got it.
Geraldo Perdomo (ARI): 1-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 SB.
Geraldo Pedromo ate on Sunday, specifically a combo meal, with two sides of steals. Perdomo is living his best life at the top of the Diamondbacks lineup, first thanks to Ketel Marte’s injury, but sustained due to his stellar play. The man walks a ton and rarely strikes out. In fact, he’s among the best players in the league in BB% and K%. He’s only 58% rostered in Yahoo leagues, but Perdomo probably deserves more love than the fantasy community is currently giving him.
Nolan Jones (CLE): 1-3, HR, R, 3 RBI, BB.
Remember this guy, and when people used a high pick to draft him in 2024 fantasy drafts? After Nolan Jones‘ disastrous 2024 season for the Rockies and for fantasy owners, Colorado traded him back to Cleveland after spring training in 2025. The result? Well, his best highlight that I’ve seen this season is him getting hit in the midsection with a baseball running to first. Does that score any fantasy points? No, but it should. The funny thing is, Statcast actually shows the man some love. Jones has a 100th percentile Hard Hit rate at 63.2%! A 98th percentile average exit velocity at 95.8 mph! And an 89th percentile BB% at 14.3%. Oh, wait, there’s also his eighth percentile K% at 31.4%. Jones finally hit his first homer of the season on Sunday. Keep him watch-listed for now, as there’s a chance he puts something together over the summer.
