Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Monday

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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Pitchers to stream on Monday

• Cincinnati Reds LHP Nick Lodolo returns from paternity leave for a home start against the Miami Marlins. He would have faced the Orioles on the road over the weekend. The Marlins lineup is less formidable while offering a higher strikeout upside for the southpaw.

• San Francisco Giants LHP Robbie Ray takes the hill in Oracle Park to face the Milwaukee Brewers. Ray is inconsistent, but he has double-digit strikeout potential every time he starts. Small sample warnings apply, but the Brewers have struggled facing lefties so far and will encounter a huge park downgrade.

• Boston Red Sox RHP Walker Buehler will experience his first Patriots Day game as he’ll toe the rubber at 11:05 AM ET in the finale of a four-game set with the Chicago White Sox. Buehler has recovered from a slow start with a pair of solid outings, allowing only three runs in 11 1/3 frames.

Pitchers to avoid on Monday

• Detroit Tigers RHP Jack Flaherty has started four games but has yet to complete six innings as a high 10.3% walk rate has driven up his pitch count. On Monday, he faces a very patient San Diego Padres lineup with a low strikeout rate. There is no need to take the risk so early in the fantasy week.

Today’s best matchups for pitchers

Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Padres hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.46 ERA in this matchup.

Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.78 ERA in this matchup.

San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.78 ERA in this matchup.

Today’s worst matchups for pitchers

St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Braves hitters
The average pitcher would post a 5.03 ERA in this matchup.

Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.70 ERA in this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Astros hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.65 ERA in this matchup.

Hitters to stream on Monday

• Padres RHP Randy Vasquez has issued 14 walks while punching out just eight in 20 2/3 innings. Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter and Zack McKinstry top Monday’s list of streaming hitters on a docket with only eight games, no doubt yielding roster holes.

• While he’s not fully clicking yet, Red Sox 1B Triston Casas is showing signs of snapping out of his early season malaise, exhibiting more patience while not fanning as much. He’s in play with the platoon edge on White Sox RHP Jonathan Cannon who yielded three homers in his first 18 innings this season.

Today’s best matchups for hitters

Atlanta Braves LHB vs. Cardinals pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .334 wOBA in this matchup.

Boston Red Sox LHB vs. White Sox pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: A | Umpire: F | Framing: A | Temperature: F | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .333 wOBA in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .327 wOBA in this matchup.

Today’s worst matchups for hitters

Philadelphia Phillies RHB vs. Mets pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Framing: C | Temperature: F | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays LHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .282 wOBA in this matchup.

New York Yankees RHB vs. Guardians pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .284 wOBA in this matchup.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today’s top HRn prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.36 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 7 park in the league for boosting home runs to RHB, according to my projections, is Minute Maid Park.

Alex Verdugo | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.90 EV
One reason to bet this: My projections’ version of expected wOBA (.302) suggests that Verdugo has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .285 actual wOBA.

Christian Yelich | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Yelich is likely to have an edge against every reliever since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants only has one same-handed RP.

Today’s top pitcher prop bets

Aaron Nola | UNDER 5.5 K (+110)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.34 EV
One reason to bet this: Nola’s 92.3-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 24th percentile out of all SPs.

Robbie Ray | UNDER 5.5 K (+110)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.82 EV
One reason to bet this: Because flyball hitters have a sizable advantage over groundball pitchers, Ray and his 41.3% underlying GB% (according to my projections) will be in a difficult position in today’s game being matched up with just one opposing GB bat.

Jonathan Cannon | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Fenway Park grades out as the No. 26 venue in MLB for strikeouts, via my projections.

Today’s Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

White Sox @ Red Sox | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $2.35 EV

Reds @ Marlins | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $1.14 EV

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