Ranking relief pitchers can be tough for about a thousand reasons. We’re dealing with small sample sizes all the way around with relievers, and we aren’t just trying to determine how good a given pitcher is, but also how much trust his manager has in him when things go poorly.
Bullpen changes tend to come in waves throughout the season, and we might be in another change-wave these days. On Monday, the Rangers might have been forced into a change, as Luke Jackson was hit by a line-drive comebacker and had to be relieved by Jacob Webb – who allowed a hit and walk but otherwise converted his first save of the season. Of course, that doesn’t mean Webb is likely to be the next man up for the Rangers – Chris Martin has been the team’s best high-leverage reliever this season, but he had already pitched in a setup role before Jackson exited Monday. If you’re betting on anyone in the Rangers bullpen getting the next save, the smart money has to be on Martin – though we also said the smart money was on Martin entering the season as the closer, and Bruce Bochy had other designs.
Hence why it’s so tough to predict these things.
On Monday, Scott White wrote a Bullpen Report column for CBSSports.com where he looked into the most in-flux situations around the majors to try to get a sense for how things might shake out moving forward, so before we get to the rest of Monday’s action around MLB, let’s take a quick look at Scott’s projected hierarchy for three other bullpen situations around baseball – players are listed in order of how Scott ranks the pitchers, not necessarily by who is most likely to get the next save (though those two usually overlap):
- Giants: Ryan Walker, Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers – “Since I’m only theorizing at this point, the pecking order remains the same, but the likelihood of a change (and of Doval’s effectiveness in that scenario) means both relievers need to be rostered in leagues where saves are scarce.”
- Pirates: David Bednar, Dennis Santana – “The Pirates fired manager Derek Shelton on Thursday, and new manager Don Kelly apparently sees the bullpen differently [than Shelton did]. Santana worked the ninth inning in all three games over weekend, including once for a save, once with a one-run deficit, and once to preserve a tie. Those are all situations in which a team might deploy its closer, and even more telling is that Bednar worked the eighth innings in two of those games.”
- Cubs: Ryan Pressly, Porter Hodge, Daniel Palencia – “A big reason why the Cubs want to give Pressly more consistent work, according to pitching coach Tommy Hottovoy, is so he can work through the mechanical issues that have caused his swinging-strike rate to collapse. It currently sits at 6.4 percent or roughly half of what it was last year, which was already a steep decline from the year before. Hottovoy thinks it’s less a matter of diminished stuff than Pressly failing to hide the ball properly. So it sounds like the Cubs are still willing to give Pressly save chances as he works through this issue, provided he’s actually getting to work.”
Here’s what else you need to know about from Monday’s MLB action, beginning with another exciting prospect call-up – though one whose immediate role is in question:
Here’s what else you need to know from Monday’s action around MLB:
Tuesday’s top waiver-wire targets
Moises Ballesteros, C, Cubs (13%) – Ballesteros is expected to get the call Tuesday, per multiple reports, and he is an exciting prospect. He is hitting .368/.420/.522 in 35 games to open the season at Triple-A, with a sub-11% strikeout rate and surprisingly strong 91.7 mph average exit velocity. But here’s the problem: Where is he supposed to play? The Cubs have Carson Kelly enjoying an unbelievable start to the season, while Miguel Amaya has an .815 OPS after going 3 for 3 with a pair of doubles Monday. Both were in the lineup Monday, and it’s not like Ian Happ‘s trip to the IL really opens an everyday spot for one of the three catchers – Seiya Suzuki was in at left field to allow Kelly to play DH Monday. Ballesteros has limited experience playing first base, but it probably isn’t an ideal spot for the 5-foot-8 Ballesteros, who has never played another position as a professional. Michael Busch has some experience playing third base, but has logged just one-third of an inning there since joining the Cubs last season, so are they really going to move him there for Ballesteros? Life (uh) finds a way, but I wish I was more excited about Ballesteros’ promotion. Right now, it looks like he’s just an add in deeper, two-catcher leagues, and now much more.
Trent Grisham, OF, Yankees (58%) – At some point, it just gets hard to remain skeptical of Grisham, who just continues to crush the ball. He went deep two more times Monday against the Mariners, giving him four homers in May and 12 for the season, just five short of his career high. And the underlying data totally backs it up – his .419 wOBA entering play Monday was backed up by a .398 expected mark, a 92nd-percentile showing. Grisham’s track record makes it hard to buy in fully, but he sure looks to have taken a big step forward, he’s playing every day, and he has cut his strikeout rate by nearly 10 points, fixing arguably the biggest flaw in his game. I suspect Grisham will slow down eventually, but he might just be this year’s Jurickson Profar.
Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals (58%) – First impressions are hard to shake, and Winn left an awful one this season when he started out the season 0 for 18 with eight strikeouts in his first five games – and it seemed especially concerning coming off a spring where he hit .080 with a 29% strikeout rate. But it turns out that may not have mattered. Since those first five games, Winn is hitting .307 with a 23% strikeout rate, with a 25-homer, 112-run pace. He’s back up near the top of the order and it seems like the breakout we were hoping for is here.
