Spencer Strider made what will likely be his final rehab start at Triple-A Gwinnett Thursday, and at this point, it’s not a question of whether he’ll be good coming back from elbow surgery; it’s a question of just how dominant he’ll be.
If Thursday’s start was the last before he makes his return, it’ll come a little over a year after his 2024 campaign came to an end due to damage in his right UCL. He underwent an internal brace procedure to repair it, and has been throwing in games since the end of Spring Training, with his outing Thursday his fifth in an official game.
And it sure sounds like it’ll be his last.
So, what should we expect? Based on the results during his rehab assignment, we should expect him to be Spencer Strider again. He had a whopping 25 swings and misses on 90 pitches Thursday, and through his three rehab starts, Strider has 27 strikeouts in 13.2 innings of work. It sure sounds like he’s back to his pre-injury self.
And I think he mostly is. But it’s not 100% certain, because his velocity isn’t all the way back yet. On Thursday, he was sitting at 95.3 mph, which is still plenty hard, but about two mph down from where he was in 2023, and his slider is similarly down. The results show he can still definitely be overpowering, but there’s also obviously a pretty big difference between doing it against Triple-A hitters and doing it against a lineup full of big-leaguers.
I expect Strider to be awesome, to be clear. I’m just not 100% certain he’s going to be the same dominant force he was prior to the injury. And I would imagine the Braves are going to have to find some way to limit his pitches and innings after he threw just nine last season. We’ll see some skipped starts, I would imagine, or at least some extra days off built into his schedule throughout the season. That won’t matter much if he’s who he was before the injury, but it could ultimately limit his ceiling for Fantasy, especially if he’s a little bit less effective.
That’s what I expect, at least at first. Flashes of dominance, of course, because even at 95, Strider’s fastball should play up, and his slider figures to be a killer at any velocity. But if you’re expecting him to come out and be the best pitcher in Fantasy the rest of the way, I’d bet against it. There will be frustrating times, whether because Strider just doesn’t have it on any given day or because the Braves pull him out of his starts earlier than you think they should.
But, at least as far as getting him in your lineup goes, it’s full steam ahead. Strider should be a must-start Fantasy option even if there are occasional setbacks and frustrations along the way. He’s too talented not to be. And I’m excited to watch him back at work.
Here’s everything else you need to know from Thursday’s action around MLB:
Friday’s top waiver-wire targets
Chase Meidroth, SS, White Sox (6%) – The White Sox had a couple of interesting prospects competing for playing time in the infield this spring, and they ended up passing on most of them. But they’re giving one of them, Meidroth, the chance to take the job and run with it after a couple of weeks. Meidroth is getting the call to join the team Friday after he went 8 for 30 with three homers and two steals in nine games at Triple-A this season. He already proved himself at the level last season, hitting .293/.437/.400, and while it’s not a super Fantasy-friendly skill set – just seven homers and 13 steals last season, with no double-digit homer seasons to his name – he’s still worth a look in deeper leagues. He should make a lot of contact and get on base, and hopefully, he’ll steal a few bags and push his way to the top of the White Sox lineup. Given the competition, that won’t take much.
David Festa, SP, Twins (12%) – We were hoping Zebby Matthews would get the call to fill Pablo Lopez‘s spot in the rotation after he was placed on the IL, but it was Festa who got the first call. And, while Matthews is probably the more interesting prospect of the two at this point, Festa shouldn’t be overlooked entirely. He had an ugly 4.90 ERA in the majors last season, but he did plenty right along the way, sporting a 27.8% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate, with underlying numbers that suggest he deserved better – a 4.14 xERA, 3.76 FIP, and 3.58 xFIP. His changeup is a legitimate weapon, and his slider isn’t bad either, so if Festa can keep his fastball from getting crushed, he could be a very useful Fantasy option – and there’s a chance he sticks around even after Lopez is back if he holds his own.
Taylor Ward, OF, Angels (56%) – Ward is one of those guys you’re never excited about drafting, but you’re usually happy he’s around. It hasn’t been an ideal start for him, which is why his roster rate has been trending down, but he was one of three Angels who homered twice Thursday against the Rays, and you can usually count on him to be a solid, dependable option, especially in five-outfielder leagues. From 2022 through 2024, he has hit .260/.339/.441 with 24 homers, 80 runs, 72 RBI, and seven steals per 150 games. It’ll never be superstar production, but as a bench bat especially, he’s nice to have around.
Quinn Priester, SP, Brewers (7%) – The Brewers just threw Priester into the deep end, as he made his first start since being acquired from the Red Sox Thursday in Coors Field. And he held his own! He sat at 93.9 mph with his sinker, up nearly one mph from last season, and showed his whole seven-pitch arsenal. There weren’t many swinging strikes to speak of, but that’s pretty normal in Coors Field. He has shown moderate strikeout ability along with good groundball rates and control at Triple-A, and he could be pretty useful with a good Brewers defense behind him. And his next two matchups are fine, against the Tigers and Giants, so I’m not scared of him there.
