All 30 NBA teams are in action on Friday as we embark on the final three days of the regular season. Although the 20 teams competing in the NBA playoffs or NBA Play-In Tournament are decided, the Western Conference features a tight race for seeds 4 through 8. The Warriors, Grizzlies and Timberwolves are all tied at 47-33 for seeds No. 6 to No. 8 in the Western Conference, which could make their stars like Stephen Curry, Anthony Edwards and Ja Morant intriguing options for NBA player props. Morant is averaging 32.5 points per game over his last four contests, yet, he has +176 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook to score at least 30 points on Friday against the Nuggets, so is he one to include in Friday NBA prop bets?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Aaron Nesmith Over 0.5 assists (+185)
The model sees significant value in Nesmith to record at least one assist as its projection of 1.3 assists would set a 0.5 assists number at -400 odds. The Pacers small forward has an assist in back-to-back games and he’s averaging 1.2 assists per game this season. A matchup against the Magic, who don’t have anything to play for, favors Indiana as well and Nesmith has played at least 29 minutes in three straight games.
“Orlando is locked into the 7 seed play-in game, so you never know how much effort they’ll put in and the thinking is Nesmith is the regular rotation player for the Pacers most likely stay on the floor in a blowout situation,” Oh said. Bet365 is currently offering the best odds at -145.
Zaccharie Risacher Over 4.5 rebounds + assists (-135)
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft is coming off one of his best games with 38 points over 35 minutes in a 133-109 victory over the Nets on Thursday. Outside of shooting 15 of 20 from the field, he had four rebounds and two assists to go Over this rebounds + assists number as he’s dominated when playing extended minutes this season. Risacher picked up three early fouls against the Magic the game before, which limited him to 16 minutes, but Oh expects the rookie to be able to stay out of foul trouble when the Hawks play on the road against the 76ers.
“The road has been good for Risacher, where the Over 4.5 rebounds + assists hit 23-15 (60.5%) vs. just 12-23 (34.3% ) at home,” Oh said. Bet365 is offering this at -135 odds.
Bobby Portis Over 19.5 points + rebounds (-115)
Portis is averaging 16 points and nine rebounds over his first two games back following a 25-game suspension. He’s shooting 48% from the field, including 40% on 3-pointers, while averaging 25.5 minutes per game. His minutes allotment could increase in his third game and Portis has been scoring and rebounding well even with Giannis Antetokounmpo in the lineup. Portis has been out since Lillard’s injury and the first two games indicate Portis will be heavily relied on for scoring without Lillard.
“The Over 19.5 points + rebounds is only 26-23 (53.1%) this season but most of that was with Dame taking up a bunch of shots,” Oh said. Oh also notes Portis has gone Over 20 points + rebounds in 16 of 17 games where he’s played more than 26 minutes and the model projects Portis for 26 minutes on Friday.
Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 assists (-160)
The Timberwolves are fighting to make their postseason path as easy as possible and that would begin with earning the No. 6 seed and avoiding the NBA Play-In Tournament. Minnesota is currently in a three-way tie for that position with the tiebreakers not working in its favor, so Minnesota likely needs to win both its final two games to have a chance at that No. 6 spot. Edwards has played at least 38 points in three straight games and he’s averaging three assists over those contests. The model projects Edwards for 4.7 assists and he’s averaging 4.5 assists per game heading into a home matchup against the Nets. Edwards has gone Over his assist total in 70.3% of home games this season (26-11).
“Even when the team was a heavy favorite (-10 or more), Edwards has gone Over nine of 15 games because in order to blow out a team you have to score plenty of points and can often get your average number of assists in 70% of your normal minutes,” Oh noted. Bet365 is offering the best odds at -160 while other sportsbooks have juiced the odds even higher with some betting apps moving his assist total to 4.5.
LeBron James Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-135)
The Lakers host the Rockets and James has been a consistent 3-point threat at Crypto.com Arena this season. He’s made at least two 3-pointers in three straight home games and five of his last six in Los Angeles. He’s averaging 2.6 3-pointers at home this season (25-8 Over) and shooting 43.5% from deep in LA.
“No reason to stop playing this in his home games,” Oh said. “He is projected for 2.2, so the model would set the line closer to -180 and he’s made at least two in his last three home games, including a 2-for-4 night vs. Houston on March 31st.” BetMGM has the best price at -135 odds while some sportsbooks have his odds at -150 or even higher.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Friday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
You can also view expert betting advice before making Friday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks, which includes an against-the-spread pick for James’ Lakers on Friday, from an expert who is 85-59-1 (+2003) over his last 145 NBA picks.
SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props, including Prop Bet Guy Doug, who is 133-104 (+1357) over his last 237 player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Prop Bet Guy is including in his NBA player prop picks for Friday, which includes a play on one of James’ high-profile teammates.
