The Detroit Pistons and Memphis Grizzlies are jockeying for seeding in their respective conferences heading into their matchup during the Saturday NBA schedule. Memphis snapped a four-game losing streak with a 110-108 win at Miami on Thursday, as Ja Morant poured in 30 points on 22 shots. He made a 12-foot jumper as time expired to give interim coach Tuomas Iisalo his first victory with the team. Morant’s over/under for points scored on Saturday night is 25.5 in the latest NBA player props from DraftKings Sportsbook.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. It has revealed some of its top NBA prop bets for Saturday’s five-game slate.
Jalen Duren Under 11.5 rebounds (-110)
Duren has finished with at least 13 rebounds in three of his last four games, but teammate Cade Cunningham (calf) has missed all of those games. Cunningham is the team’s second-leading rebounder with 6.1 boards per game, and he could return for Saturday’s game against Memphis. Duren was held to seven rebounds against Memphis when these teams met in November.
The model projects 9.7 rebounds in a prop that has a 4 out of 5 star rating. BetMGM offers the best odds at -110.
Julius Randle Over 29.5 points/assists/rebounds (-110)
Minnesota is currently riding a four-game winning streak as it continues to jockey for seeding in the Western Conference standings. Randle is facing a Philadelphia team that has lost 10 consecutive games and has been out of the playoff race for weeks. He has scored at least 25 points in three of his last four games, finishing with a minimum of 39 points + assists + rebounds in those three outings. The model has him projected to record 33.8 to earn a 4-star prop rating in this matchup.
“Julius Randle tends to surpass his total points + assists + rebounds market in seven of his last 11 instances when playing on the road against a bottom third defense, with an average of 30.3 total points + assists + rebounds per game,” per the model. The best odds of -110 are at DraftKings.
Pelle Larsson Under 9.5 points (-105)
Larsson surprisingly scored 45 combined points in a three-game stretch, but he came back to earth with a 3-point performance against Memphis on Thursday. The rookie Heat shooting guard only took three shots in that game, despite playing 23 minutes. He has only reached double digits in eight games this season, and Miami will be relying on its best players in a critical showdown with the Bucks on Saturday night.
The model projects just 5.7 points for Larsson in a 4-star prop. BetMGM is offering the best odds for this prop at -105.
Tyler Herro Over 35.5 points/assists/rebounds (-112)
Herro is coming off a huge outing against Memphis on Thursday, scoring 35 points on 12 of 23 shooting. He added nine rebounds and four assists in the buzzer-beater loss, flying over his PAR total. Miami’s leading scorer is averaging 23.9 points, 5.6 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game. However, he has gone over 35.5 points + assists + rebounds in five straight games as he takes on an even larger late-season role.
The model has Herro finishing with 38.1 points + assists + rebounds against Milwaukee. FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best odds at -112.
Ivica Zubac Under 12.5 rebounds (-114)
Zubac pulled down a whopping 20 rebounds against the Magic on Monday, but has not finished with more than 13 rebounds in another game since March 18. The 28-year-old is facing Dallas in the second leg of a back-to-back on Saturday, so the Mavericks should be prepared for him. Zubac could also play limited minutes if the Clippers cruise to another double-digit win.
“When at home and facing a team with a losing record, Ivica Zubac has failed to reach his total rebounds market in 7 of his last 10 games, maintaining an average of 11.1 total rebounds per game,” according to the model. The best price of -114 is available at FanDuel.
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