The Wednesday NBA schedule features a nine-game slate, including the New York Knicks attempting a feat they haven’t been able to accomplish this season: defeating one of the top two teams in the Eastern Conference. The Knicks are 0-2 against the Cavaliers and 0-3 against the Celtics, and on Wednesday, they’ll travel to Cleveland. The Cavaliers (-10.5, 230) are 4-1 over their last five games. Knicks small forward OG Anunoby has scored at least 27 points in five straight games, yet he has an over/under for total points of 21.5 at plus-money odds on multiple betting apps, including +110 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, in the latest NBA player props. Should you include him in Wednesday NBA prop bets?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Then, one of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value going into the season. The odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Derrick White Over 0.5 blocks (-135)
White had two blocks against the Grizzlies on Monday and he’s had at least one block in back-to-back games and in five of his last seven contests. White had an eight-game stretch in the middle of February without a block, but outside of that, Oh notes White has had a block in more than 70% of games over the last few seasons and he likes this matchup for the Celtics guard on the road against Miami.
“Miami’s shots blocked increase by nearly 25% on the road,” Oh said “He comes in 8-3 Over and in this stretch, he had a block in three straight games twice. If the pattern continues tonight, it will be his third three-game stretch.” Bet365 offers the best odds at -135 while other sportsbooks have this number at -140 or more.
Ben Simmons Over 0.5 steals (-110)
The Clippers are 17.5-point favorites against the Pelicans on Wednesday, which could translate to more minutes in a one-sided affair off the bench for Simmons. The model gives Simmons and 80% chance at recording at least one steal, showing great value at -110 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
“The Pelicans average the 10th-most turnovers in the league at around 14 per game and that has gone up recently during this recent tank stretch (17, 15, 16, 17, 25),” Oh said. “He has at least one steal in eight of 13 games as a Clipper and 23 of 34 games where he played at least 20 minutes and those are the relevant splits in this case.”
Alex Sarr Over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
The model has Sarr projected to go over his totals in all three of these categories and finds the best value in combining them in a PAR bet. The model projects a PAR of 27.9 for the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, who has played at least 27 minutes in six of his last seven games. The Wizards power forward has gone Over this number in two of his last four games.
“The model projects a massive rebounding edge for the Kings (+15) and we still have value on his Over on rebounds,” Oh said. “If Sarr does get the message. he could not only get more rebounds than projected, but also more points off of offensive rebounds or maybe assists passing back out to open shooters.” BetMGM has the best odds at -110 while other betting sites have juiced it to -115 odds or more.
Josh Green Over 9.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105)
The model liked Green’s Over 3.5 rebounds + assists on Monday, which he hit, but this time, it projects even better value when adding points in there as well. The 24-year-old guard has gone Over this number with points alone in three of his last four games and the tanking Hornets gave Green 26 minutes on Monday, his most in two weeks. He’s played at least 20 minutes over each of his last 30 games. BetMGM currently has the best odds at -105.
“With tanking teams, the key is to focus on players with steady minutes and low lines and you can spell that with J-O-S-H-G-R-E-E-N these days,” Oh proclaimed.
Jarrett Allen Over 9.5 rebounds (+114)
Allen is averaging 10 rebounds per game and the model is projecting 10.1 rebounds from him on Wednesday and any time there’s a plus-money play for a player lower than his average and projection, the model suggests jumping on it. Allen had 12 rebounds against the Clippers on Sunday, but it was just his second double-digit rebounding game over his last eight contests. Allen had 15 rebounds in 31 minutes in his first contest against the Knicks but only played 20 minutes in the second contest and finished with three rebounds. But the Cavaliers won that game by 37 points and dominated early. Getting this play at +114 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook is strong value, according to Oh.
“The message vs. the Knicks from the coaches will be to dominate the boards and get back into competing for the No. 1 overall seed while continuing the Knicks’ winless record vs the elite teams in the league,” Oh said.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Wednesday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
