With just two weeks remaining until the start of the 2025 NBA playoffs, teams are trying to find their postseason groove. The Golden State Warriors have a fighting chance to work their way out of the NBA play-in tournament, as they’re now tied for the sixth in the NBA standings with the Los Angeles Clippers. The addition of Jimmy Butler has had a profound impact on Golden State and the Warriors are now 17-4 in games he’s played. The latest NBA props from DraftKings Sportsbook list Butler’s over/under for points scored at 18.5. Which side of that line should you play and how can you lock in NBA parlays, NBA player props, and SGPs with a built-in edge?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Then, one of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 40.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125 DraftKings)
Towns has averaged exactly 40.5 combined points, rebounds and assists per game this season, but he’s cruised past this number in two of his last three games. The all-star center posted a triple-double with 26 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists against the Mavericks on Tuesday and then had 34 points, 14 rebounds and four assists against the Clippers on Wednesday.
The model notes that Towns is even better against teams like the Trail Blazers, as he’s gone over his PAR in eight of his last 10 games against teams with losing records that are middle third of the NBA defensively. It predicts he finishes with 47.2 combined points, rebounds and assists on average.
Jalen Green Under 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (-114 FanDuel)
With the Rockets sitting second in the West, Green is on the verge of superstardom and is averaging a team-leading 21.5 points per game. He’s also averaging 4.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game, and this is a number that he’s breezed past in recent games because he’s been scoring at will.
However, the Suns have held three of their last five opponents under 45% shooting as a team at home and Green has struggled on the road at times. He’s gone under on his PAR in three of his last five road games and is shooting just 37.6% from the floor in his last seven games away from home. The model he finishes with 27.7 PAR on average.
R.J. Barrett Over 16.5 points (-118 FanDuel)
Since arriving in Toronto in the middle of last season, Barrett is averaging 21.5 points, 6.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game, so this is a suspiciously low total. That’s likely rooted in the fact that he hasn’t had a 20-point game since March 8 while battling an ankle injury but he is scheduled to return to the lineup after being rested on Friday against the Hornets.
The 76ers rank 26th in the NBA in defensive rating (118.3) and have given up an average of 126.6 points per game during their current seven-game losing streak. That’s a big reason why the model is projecting that Barrett finishes with 22.9 points on average for a comfortable cash.
Miles Bridges over 7.5 rebounds (+124 DraftKings)
Bridges is averaging 7.7 rebounds per game this season, so the model is jumping at the opportunity to get plus money for an eight-rebound night. He’s gone over on his rebounds prop in four of his last five games and has had 29 games of eight rebounds or more this season in 58 games played. Meanwhile, the Pelicans rank 29th in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage (72.1%), which is why the model predicts he averages 8.8 rebounds on Sunday.
Ron Holland under 2.5 rebounds (+120 FanDuel)
This is a low number but it’s another solid opportunity with plus-money being dangled. The No. 5 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft is averaging 2.7 rebounds per game but has only played more than 20 minutes once this month with the Pistons contending in the East. Holland has finished with two rebounds or fewer in eight of the 14 games that he’s played this month and has failed to reach three rebounds in 37 of the 74 games he’s played overall. You can get this prop at plus-money at FanDuel.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for some of the most popular props on Sunday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
