With four home runs in his last four games, Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor is heating up after a sluggish start to the season. Lindor went yard twice on Monday against the Phillies and the Mets will continue the series against their NL East rivals on Tuesday in what could be favorable home run conditions. The forecasted temperature for first pitch (7:10 p.m. ET) is 72 degrees with 10 mph winds projected to blow out to right-center field. The latest MLB home run odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, home of Dinger Tuesday, price Lindor at +520 to hit another home run. Another two-homer night would pay out +4500 at DraftKings, where you can snag a No Sweat Home Run bet.
Is it worth adding Lindor to your MLB home run picks for Tuesday, April 22? With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 13-6 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. It also nailed at least one home run on five consecutive days last week and then called Elly De La Cruz (+700) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (+475) to go yard on Sunday. The SportsLine Projection Model has called a HR prop in 10 of the last 14 days and is up 29.15 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Monday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +14994 odds and would pay out $754.69 on a $5 bet at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Jose Ramirez, Guardians (+560)
FanDuel is offering the best price overall here, but we’re playing this line at +525 in our BetMGM parlay. Ramirez has evolved from utility player early in his career to one of the most well-rounded infielders in baseball and the switch-hitter tied a career-high with 39 home runs last season. He’s clubbed five home runs already this season and is sporting an .863 OPS entering Tuesday.
“I like this matchup against Will Warren who is coming off a start where he lasted just 1 2/3 innings,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Ramirez loves playing against the Yankees and has 12 HRs in 61 games against them to go with a .968 OPS.”
Cal Raleigh, Mariners (+360)
Raleigh’s power has been the defining characteristics of his career, as he’s combined to hit 91 home runs over the last three seasons. He’s already hit nine home runs in 2025 and is tied for the MLB lead and the Mariners have made use of that power by getting him into the lineup as the DH on days that he’s not catching. He’ll hit from the left side tonight in Boston against Red Sox righty Brayan Bello and the wind is expected to blow straight out to right field.
“Raleigh has six of his nine HRs this season against right-handers, but his .825 OPS against lefties this season is encouraging for when lefty relievers come in to face him,” Fetner said. “We have Raleigh at +268 to homer in our model, the best line of any player today.” BetMGM has the best odds for this MLB HR prop at +360.
Jonathan Aranda, Rays (+450)
The 26-year-old from Mexico is finally getting a chance to play everyday after brief stints with the Rays in each of the last three seasons, and he’s taking advantage. Entering Tuesday, Aranda is slashing .355/.438/.677 with four home runs, eight doubles and 13 RBI over 22 games. His 95.1 mph average exit velocity is 96th percentile among MLB hitters while his staggering 60.8% hard-hit contact rate is 98th percentile.
“Aranda has been incredibly good against RHPs this season, batting .404/.456/.788 with four HRs in 52 at-bats,” Fetner said. “I think getting this price at +450 on Aranda in the HR friendly environment in Arizona is a solid bet considering we would set his line at +370.” DraftKings is offering the best price at +450.
More MLB picks for Tuesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 67-30 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 10-6 on his last 16 MLB ATS picks and you can find all his latest selections here. You can also get the best MLB stolen base picks for Tuesday here and see how to use DraftKings’ MLB profit boost token.
