The Seattle Mariners are coming off a 14-run performance, powered by four home runs from three different players in a 14-0 victory over the Marlins on Saturday, with Jorge Polanco leading the way with two home runs. Like many other teams on a full Sunday slate, the Mariners have a short turnaround with a 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Polanco has hit a home run in back-to-back games and in three of his last four contests, but is he a strong option to consider for Sunday MLB home run bets? Polanco has +550 odds on Bet365 to hit a home run against the Marlins, who are starting Max Meyer, who hasn’t allowed a home run in three of his last four starts. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 13-6 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. It nailed all three of its home run bets on Wednesday, cashing a +9360 parlay. The model has called a HR prop in 12 of the last 19 days and is up 33.2 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +18800 odds and would pay out $1,880.00 on a $10 bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mike Trout, Angels (+350)
The three-time American League MVP is tied for second in baseball with nine home runs this season. Trout’s biggest problem in recent years has been health, but when he’s on the field like he’s been to begin the 2025 MLB season, the future Hall of Famer is still an elite power hitter. Trout had 10 home runs in just 29 games last season and has nine home runs over 26 games this year. Those 55 games are one more than one-third of a 162-game average, which would put him at a roughly 57 home-run pace on a 162-game season. The Twins are starting Joe Ryan, who allowed three home runs in his last start.
“Despite Ryan being a RHP, he allows a slugging percentage almost 100 points higher to righties than to lefties,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We would set the line at +290 for Trout to homer, and you are getting strong value here on Trout, whose power is still amongst the league’s best when healthy.” DraftKings Sportsbook is offering the best odds at +350.
Sean Murphy, Braves (+600)
The Atlanta catcher hit his seventh home run of the season on Saturday for his third home run and fourth extra-base hit over his last five contests. He has seven home runs in just 15 games played this season, showcasing his power from his first year in Atlanta when he hit 21 home runs in 108 games and made the 2023 All-Star Game. Brandon Pfaadt is starting for the Diamondbacks.
“While Brandon Pfaadt has been really good as of late, he is still facing a powerful Braves lineup in a hitter-friendly park in Arizona,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +470 for Murphy to hit a home run.” BetMGM is offering this play at +650 odds, holding strong value based on the model’s projections and compared to the price of other betting apps, including Caesars offering at +480. DraftKings Sportsbook’s +600 line will be used for the parlay.
Brandon Lowe, Rays (+500)
Lowe hit a home run on Saturday, his fourth of the season, for his first long ball since April 5. However, the 30-year-old second baseman had three home runs over his first eight games of the season and the model projects a power resurgence. Lowe is 2-for-3 with a double against Padres probable starter Randy Vasquez over his career.
“Lowe had 21 home runs in each of the last two seasons, but that came in 109 and 107 games, respectively,” Fetner said. “Lowe has 100 of his 130 career home runs against RHPs and while Padres’ starting Randy Vasquez hasn’t allowed a home run this season, he went just two innings in his last start and got hit around. We set the line at +440 for Lowe to hit a home run.”
More MLB picks for Sunday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 78-37 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 10-4 over his last 14 MLB money line picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Sunday.
