The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a thrilling win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday night, as Shohei Ohtani hit a three-run home run in the ninth inning to cap a wild comeback. Los Angeles trailed 11-8 entering the ninth inning after blowing an early five-run lead, but Ohtani’s homer completed a six-run final frame. Ohtani has gone yard in four of his last five games and has 12 home runs overall this season heading into the Saturday MLB schedule. He is +260 (risk $100 to win $260) to go yard in the latest MLB home run odds at Caesars Sportsbook for Saturday.
Yankees slugger Aaron Judge (+125) has the shortest home run odds of anyone on Saturday. Judge also has 12 home runs this season, so should you include him and Ohtani in your Saturday MLB home run bets? The first pitch of the day comes at 4:05 p.m. ET. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 10-5 roll on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model has hit at least one MLB home run prop in four of the last eight days and is up 25.55 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 32 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Saturday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +10601 odds and would pay out $1,060.16 on a $10 bet at FanDuel.
Brent Rooker, Athletics (+350)
Rooker is tied with Tyler Soderstrom for the team lead in home runs (9) so far this season, even though he has not homered since last Saturday. The 30-year-old is hitting .300 with a 1.049 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season, and Yankees starter Carlos Rodon allowed 28 of 31 homers to right-handed batters last year. Rooker is 0-for-9 with four strikeouts against Rodon in his career, but the model expects that to change on Saturday.
“Optimal hitting conditions are expected for this games which is a 10 out of 10 on the Home Run Index,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set Rooker’s line to homer at +310.” DraftKings Sportsbook is offering the best line at +350, and if you bet $5, you can get $200 in bonus bets instantly.
Jackson Chourio, Brewers (+475)
Chourio and Christian Yelich each have six home runs this season to lead Milwaukee, and Chourio is looking for his first long ball since April 26. He is coming off a three-hit performance against Tampa Bay on Friday, which bodes well for his chances of getting a hold of a pitch on Saturday. Chourio is facing Rays starter Taj Bradley, who has allowed five homers through his first seven starts of the season.
“Rays’ SP Taj Bradley has a somewhat high career rate of 1.6 HR/9 and playing at Steinbrenner Field won’t help those numbers,” Fetner said. The model sets Chourio’s line at +405, so you’re getting value here with BetMGM offering +475.
Anthony Santander, Blue Jays (+420)
Santander is another player leading his team in home runs this season, sitting ahead of Vladimir Guerrero and George Springer. Toronto’s designated hitter hit his fifth homer of the campaign on Tuesday against the Angels, and he is rested after sitting out on Friday. Santander went 5-for-14 during the series in Anaheim and is coming off back-to-back multi-hit games. He is facing Mariners rookie pitcher Logan Evans, who has a 7.20 ERA and gave up 11 hits in his last start.
“FanDuel is offering a strong line as the price is in the low 300s in many books,” Fetner said. “We set the line around +375 for Santander to hit a HR tonight.” You can find the best Santander home run odds at FanDuel, and you can get up to $200 in bonus bets with a $5 winning bet here.
More MLB picks for Saturday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 98-49 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 26-15 over his last 41 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Saturday.
