After hitting nine home runs in his first 19 games and then going 23 games without one, Athletics 1B/OF Tyler Soderstrom finally got back on the board with a two-run homer against the Dodgers on Wednesday. He’s now up to 10 home runs on the season and the 23-year-old is making good on the prodigious power that once made him a consensus top-100 MLB prospect. There are only six games on the MLB schedule on Thursday, but the Athletics will be in action and FanDuel lists him at +450 in its latest MLB home run odds.
Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani will have the wind blowing out to right field tonight but you’ll only get a +155 payout from DraftKings after he belted his 13th homer on Wednesday night. So who are the top value plays to add to your MLB HR parlays? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 10-5 roll on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model has hit at least one MLB home run prop in seven of the last 12 days and is up 38.6 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 37 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +15338 odds and would pay out $771.88 on a $5 bet at BetMGM.
Trevor Larnach, Twins (+550)
The former first-round pick hit a career-high 15 home runs while being used almost exclusively as a platoon player against right-handed pitching last season. This year, the Twins are testing him with a more regular role but it’s still clear that he’s at his best against righties. He has an .829 OPS against right-handed pitching this year, but has only registered a .381 OPS against lefties. Fortunately, he’ll match up with a home run susceptible righty on Thursday.
“Larnach has three home runs in his last six games and has now hit all seven of his homers on the season against right-handed pitchers,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Orioles‘ SP Tomoyuki Sugano has been really good in his last several starts but has been susceptible against lefties who are hitting .234 with five home runs against him this season.” BetMGM and DraftKings are both offering +550 for this MLB HR prop.
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+360)
Henderson won AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2023 and then was top five in AL MVP voting last season, but he got off to a slow start in 2025. However, he’s very quickly correcting course, having reached safely in each of his last 19 games and going 9-for-22 with three home runs and seven RBI over his last five games.
“Henderson is 3-4 with a HR in his career against Chris Paddack and with the way he has been swinging the bat, he is in a very good position to do damage today,” Fetner said. “Paddack has been better against left-handed bats, but Henderson is hitting .337 with a 1.017 OPS against RHPs this season.” DraftKings is offering the best price for this Gunnar Henderson HR prop.
Brent Rooker, Athletics (+375)
Rooker broke out with 30 home runs during an all-star season in 2023 and then he slashed .293/.365/.562 with 39 home runs and 112 RBI to win a Silver Slugger and finish top 10 in AL MVP voting in 2024. He still flies somewhat under the radar playing for the Athletics, but he continues to be one of the most dangerous power hitters in the West with 10 homers over his first 43 games this season.
“The weather is playing hitter friendly in LA, and Rooker does have a home run in just two at-bats in his career against Sauer,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +300 for Rooker to hit a HR.” BetMGM has the best price for Rooker in its MLB HR odds.
More MLB picks for Thursday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 110-51 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 13-8 over his last 21 MLB run line picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Thursday.
