The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers will regroup following their rain-delayed, 13-inning series opener on Friday. They will play at 7:15 p.m. ET during the Saturday MLB schedule, with the Dodgers looking to clinch a series victory in a game that has an over/under of 9.5. There is plenty of home run power in both lineups, as players like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Pete Alonso and Juan Soto will all be on the field. Alonso has the shortest MLB home run odds (+245) in this matchup at DraftKings, while Ohtani is +310 and Teoscar Hernandez is +360. Ohtani is currently tied with Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber for the MLB home run lead (17). Our model is all over Soto as providing value for Saturday MLB home run picks.
Any first-time users interested in putting together MLB home run picks today can also enhance their experience with the latest DraftKings promo code or Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, just to name a few. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks and betting strategy.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 25.75 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 46 days after hitting one MLB home run prop in three of the last four days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Saturday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Saturday, May 24:
Fernando Tatis, Padres (+340)
Tatis has not posted a multi-hit game in two weeks, but he has hit three home runs since then. Five of his seven hits in his last 10 games have gone for multiple bases, and he has a favorable pitching matchup on Saturday. Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has already given up 10 home runs in nine starts this season, allowing multiple earned runs in four of his last five outings.
“Despite being a right-handed pitcher, Holmes has allowed right-handed batters to have more success than left-handed bats,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “The weather is playing hitter friendly in Atlanta, and we set the line at +275 for Tatis to homer.”
Junior Caminero, Rays (+400)
Caminero is coming off a 2-for-3 day at the plate on Friday, marking his first multi-hit game since May 9. He has hit eight home runs this season, with his latest coming against Toronto on May 13. Six of his eight homers have come against right-handed pitchers, and seven of his long balls have come at home. Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios has given up nine homers, so the model likes Caminero at this price.
“Caminero has both stronger splits at home than on the road and against RHPs compared to LHPs,” Fetner said. “He is facing an RHP at home today, so it’s no surprise that our model likes his value today.” BetMGM has the best price at +400, and new users can get even more value with a BetMGM promo code.
Juan Soto, Mets (+400)
Soto has not gone yard since hitting three homers in a two-game stretch two weeks ago, so he will be looking to snap that skid. The 26-year-old has seven of his eight homers against right-handed pitchers this season, and he is facing a righty on Saturday. Additionally, Soto loves the big stage, and he is facing the defending World Series champions in primetime on national television.
“Dodgers’ SP Tony Gonsolin has a 1.8 HR/9 rate when he has been healthy since 2023. He allowed 2 HRs in the first inning in his last start,” Fetner said. “Soto is 4-12 in his career against Gonsolin, so seeing a pitcher that he’s had some success against should give him confidence.” The model sets the line at +350 and BetMGM is offering the best price at +400.
Where to bet MLB props on Saturday
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More MLB picks for Saturday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 121-61 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 24-16 over his last 40 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in multiple picks for Saturday.
