Tigers second baseman Colt Keith did not hit a home run in his first 27 games of the season, but he has now gone yard four times in his last nine games. The 23-year-old also has multiple hits in three of his last four games, increasing his batting average to .215. He is facing Rangers starter Patrick Corbin during the Friday MLB schedule, and Corbin has allowed four homers in five starts. While Keith is flying under the radar and has +750 odds to hit a home run, teammate Spencer Torkelson has 10 homers this season. He is +290 (risk $100 to win $290) to go yard in the latest MLB home run odds at Caesars Sportsbook for Friday.
Yankees slugger Aaron Judge (+150) and Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani (+230) both have short MLB HR odds again on Friday. Judge has homered 12 times this season, so should you back him with your MLB HR bets? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 10-5 roll on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model has hit at least one MLB home run prop in four of the last seven days and is up 28.55 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 30 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +22080 odds and would pay out $1,104.04 on a $5 bet at FanDuel.
Willy Adames, Giants (+420)
Adames homered twice against Colorado on Sunday, doubling his season home run total. He has added three hits in three games since then, with two of them coming at Chicago on Wednesday. The 29-year-old has raised his season batting average from .202 to .230 over his last nine games, and three of his four homers have come during that stretch. He is hitting .272 with an .826 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers compared to a .133 average and a .321 OPS vs. lefties.
“Since 2023, Chris Paddack has a relatively high 1.5 HR/9 and despite being a RHP, right-handed batters have had a good deal of success against him this season,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. FanDuel is offering the best Willy Adames home run odds, and you can get up to $200 in bonus bets with a $5 winning bet here.
Byron Buxton, Twins (+440)
Buxton did not hit a home run on Thursday, but he homered in three straight games prior to that contest. The 31-year-old now has nine homers in 35 starts this season, putting him on pace for better numbers than his previous two campaigns. Part of his problem has been injuries though, as he has been on a 40 HR/year pace when he has been healthy since 2021.
“You can get +440 because Giants’ SP Jordan Hicks doesn’t give up many HRs, but we think Buxton’s recent success and the weather expecting to be hitter friendly still makes this a strong play,” Fetner said. The model sets Buxton’s line at +365, so you’re getting value here with FanDuel offering +440.
Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+850)
Kurtz is still looking for his first big-league home run after hitting seven long balls in Triple-A before he was called up. He has recorded at least one hit in 10 of his 13 starts this season, and he has scored a run in three straight games. The model has him lined at +800 to hit his first homer on Friday, providing some solid longshot value.
“This is a good spot with the weather expected to be hitter friendly while facing a fellow rookie in Yankees’ SP Will Warren,” Fetner said. “Warren has struggled a bit against left-handed bats who are hitting .280 with a .849 OPS against him.” DraftKings has the best price at +850, while FanDuel’s +800 line will be used for the parlay.
More MLB picks for Friday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 95-49 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 11-6 over his last 17 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in multiple picks for Friday.
