With just six games on Thursday’s MLB schedule, and with only two of them starting after 3:10 p.m. ET, you may have to dig deep to find quality MLB player props. Fortunately, the night slate still has several stars you could target with total bases props such as Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Jose Altuve. Meanwhile, a future star like Wyatt Langford is showing why he was the No. 4 overall draft pick in 2023 as he’s flashing his five-tool talents. BetMGM Sportsbook has Langford’s total bases Over/Under at 0.5 (-190/+135), but given that he’s facing Hunter Brown, who ranks fourth in baseball with a .180 batting average against, is the plus-money Under the smart play with Langford’s MLB total bases prop?
Targeting total bases props is a popular way to attack MLB betting, and even with just two games on Thursday’s MLB schedule starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later, you can still find value on the board. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB total bases parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 12-8 run on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model hit an MLB home run prop on Tuesday and is up 41.6 units on picks over the last 36 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB total bases props on Thursday. These three picks can be parlayed for +537 odds and would win well over $500 on a $100 bet.
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
After a slow start to the year as he battled an illness which caused him to drop roughly 20 pounds, Betts is back to looking like the all-world player that he is. He hit just .230 over the first 26 games but is batting .327 over his last 14 games. He has 28 total bases over this recent stretch, averaging exactly two total bases per game. The model has a bit more modest projection for Betts of 1.73 total bases for Thursday as he faces Osvaldo Bido of the Athletics. The pitcher has struggled versus right-handed batters like Betts, allowing a .330 batting average, compared to a .236 average versus left-handed hitters. You shouldn’t hesitate to jump on this plus-money prop at BetMGM.
Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 total bases (-145)
In his first year in Houston, Paredes is tied for the team lead with six homers and ranks second with 66 total bases. He’s swinging a hot bat entering the Lone Star Series versus the Rangers. Paredes has homers in back-to-back games, with three total hits over this two-game stretch. He faces two-time Cy Young winner, Jacob deGrom, but Paredes and Houston get a break with the game beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET. The pitcher isn’t nearly as effective in night starts, with a .447 slugging percentage allowed, versus day starts, where he’s allowed a minuscule .171 slugging percentage. The best MLB odds come at -145 at Bet365 Sportsbook.
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-140)
Already a three-time MVP, Ohtani is, somehow, off to the best start of his career in the batter’s box. His OPS+ of 197 is a career-high as he ranks among the top three of the NL in total bases, home runs and slugging percentage. He had five total bases, including a homer, on Wednesday and is averaging a staggering 3.5 total bases over his last 10 games. Like Betts, Ohtani should also take advantage of Bido, who gave up four extra-base hits, including two homers, in his last outing. Ohtani is projected for 2.2 total bases, and while some sportsbooks have this MLB total bases prop at -165, there’s value in getting it at -140 at Bet365.
Want more MLB picks for Thursday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB total bases prop picks for some popular props on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
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You can also see today’s best MLB picks from Jacob Fetner, who’s on a sizzling 11-3 (+662) roll on MLB money line picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets for Thursday’s MLB schedule.
