The 2025 NBA Finals features the Oklahoma City Thunder hosting the Indiana Pacers for Game 1 on Thursday. The Pacers eliminated the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks en route to the 2025 NBA Finals. Meanwhile, OKC took care of the Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves. Tipoff for Game 1 is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are favored by 9.5 points, and the over/under is 231 points in the latest Timberwolves vs. Warriors odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Oklahoma City is 60-35-4, while Indiana is 47-48-3 against the spread this season.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the 2025 NBA Finals on a sizzling 160-118 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 24-11 (69%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, here are the model’s top-three picks in the Pacers vs. Thunder SGP on Thursday, and also check out our top NBA props for Game 1 and 2025 NBA Finals MVP picks.
Best Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 1 NBA SGP (odds subject to change):
- OKC -9.5 (-115)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points (-110)
- Tyrese Haliburton 9+ assists (-145)
- SGP payout: +531
Oklahoma City Thunder spread -9.5 (-115)
The model projects that the Thunder will come away with a 15-point victory. Oklahoma City has covered the spread in four of its last six playoff games. All four of those wins were in double figures, while three of them came at home. In the March 29 regular season matchup vs. Indiana, the Thunder came away with a 132-111 victory. Use a DraftKings promo code to get even more bang for your buck on this line.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points (-110)
Gilgeous-Alexander has been on a heater this entire season. In the 2025 NBA playoffs, he’s averaging 29.8 points per game. The Kentucky product has scored at least 34 points in five games this postseason. In addition, he’s tallied 35-plus points in three of his last six games against the Pacers, including 45 points back on December 26.
Tyrese Haliburton 9+ Assists (-145)
Haliburton is first on the team in assists (9.8) this postseason and consistently scans the floor to find open teammates. In the 2025 NBA playoffs, he has nine-plus assists in 10 games. Four of those came in the Eastern Conference finals over the Knicks. In addition, Haliburton has five career games with double-digit assists against the Thunder. A FanDuel promo code can help you unlock even more value on this prop.
Want more NBA picks for Game 1?
You’ve seen some the model’s top NBA playoff best bets for Game 1. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who’s on a sizzling 127-98-1 roll on his last 220 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 19 units.
