The New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers 2025 NBA Eastern Conference finals has been a battle of road warriors with the away team winning each of the first three contests heading into Game 4. That matchup will be held at Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET, with the Pacers holding a 2-1 series lead. However, the SportsLine model predicts that trend to stop on Tuesday, projecting the Pacers to win and cover the 2.5-point spread on betting sites as a piece to include in Tuesday Pacers vs. Knicks same-game parlay bets. Part of the reason the model projects that is it expects a bounceback performance from Pascal Siakam to go Over his points + rebounds + assists market and keep up with his series trend of having an elite performance after an average output.
Siakam had 39 points in Game 2, which outscored his combined 34 points in Game 1 and Game 3, and with Siakam shooting 54.7% from the field this season, the model projects value in playing his Over 29.5 PRA in a Knicks vs. Pacers SGP for online sports betting. The Pacers are favored by 2.5 points, and the over/under is 220.5 points in the latest Knicks vs. Pacers odds from DraftKings, and the latest DraftKings promo code gives users $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. See more Pacers vs. Knicks props here.
SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh is the expert behind the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model is 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Here are the model’s top-three picks in the Knicks vs. Pacers SGP on Tuesday:
- Indiana -2.5 (-108)
- Pascal Siakam Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
- Jalen Brunson Under 29.5 points (-110)
- SGP pays out +435 at DraftKings (odds subject to change)
Indiana -2.5 (-108)
The Pacers led the majority of Game 3 in Indiana before New York outscored Indiana, 36-20, in the fourth quarter in a 106-100 Knicks victory. Indiana shot just 20% on 3-pointers in Game 3, but the Pacers had the sixth-best 3-point percentage (37.2%) during the regular season, so that type of shooting performance isn’t likely again on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Pacers held the Knicks to 34% on 3-pointers and they had the fifth-best 3-point defense in the regular season, holding teams to 35.3% from deep. The model expects better shooting from Indiana while continuing to challenge the Knicks from beyond the arc, leading Indiana to cover the spread in well over 50% of simulations.
Pascal Siakam Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
Siakam’s PRA opened at 25.5 and even as it’s climbed four points higher, the model still sees strong value in including this play in Tuesday NBA player props and same-game parlays. The 31-year-old is averaging 24.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists for a 32.7 PRA total this series. He’s gone Over 29.5 in three of his last five playoff games, and Siakam averaged a 29.8 PRA at home this season in 33 minutes per game. Meanwhile, he’s averaging 37 minutes per game this series. If you are just playing this NBA player prop alone, you can find better value on FanDuel at -102 odds and a FanDuel promo code can give your account a boost as a first-time player. But for building a same-game parlay, the best value for this comes on DraftKings. The model projects Siakam for a 34 PRA on Tuesday.
Jalen Brunson Under 29.5 points (-110)
Foul trouble has significantly hindered Brunson’s playing time and ability on the court as, although he’s never been an elite defender, once Brunson picks up his fourth or fifth foul, he often becomes a true defensive liability. Brunson was the only Knicks player with a negative plus/minus in Game 3’s victory as he was on the bench for a large chunk of the fourth quarter comeback due to his five fouls and poor defense. The Knicks weren’t built to win an Eastern Conference finals game with Brunson playing just 31 minutes, but if he finds himself in foul trouble again and not keeping up defensively, he could see more time off the floor. Brunson had 23 points on Sunday, and he’s had fewer than 23 points in three of his last five games. The model projects him for 26.8 points on Tuesday.
Want more NBA picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s top NBA playoff best bets for Tuesday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who’s on a sizzling 138-108-2 (+1920) roll on his last 248 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 19 units.
