The Oklahoma City Thunder are one victory away from making their first NBA Finals since 2012 and given how dominant they’ve been at home throughout the regular season and postseason, the model likes the chances of the Thunder closing out the series in Game 5 in convincing fashion in an 8:30 p.m. ET start on Wednesday. The Thunder went 35-6 at home during the regular season and are 7-1 in Oklahoma City this postseason. The model projects the Thunder to win and cover the 8.5-point spread on betting sites as a piece to include in Wednesday Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay bets for online sports betting on sites like FanDuel, where the latest FanDuel promo code gives users $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. See more Timberwolves vs. Thunder props here.
SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh is the expert behind the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model is 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Here are the model’s top-three picks in the Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP on Wednesday:
- Oklahoma City -8.5 (-106)
- Under 220.5 points (-110)
- Naz Reid Over 9.5 points (+102)
- SGP pays out +607 at FanDuel (odds subject to change)
Oklahoma City -8.5 (-106)
The Thunder won their two games in Oklahoma City this series by 26 and 15 points, as even in a postseason where homecourt advantage hasn’t meant much in many series, the Thunder have continued to dominate in their arena. The Thunder are 6-2 ATS at home (7-1 overall) this postseason and covered the spread in 70.2% of all home games (33-14-2) with the regular season and playoffs combined. The Thunder had the best scoring margin (+12.1) during the regular season, and six of their seven home victories this postseason have come by at least 12 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 40 points in Game 4 and he’s scored at least 30 points in each of his last five home playoff games to prove why he was this year’s NBA MVP Award winner. The model projects the Thunder to cover the spread in almost 70% of simulations.
Under 220.5 points (-110)
The Under has hit in four of seven Thunder home games this postseason and Wednesday’s 220.5-point over/under is the highest of the series. The two teams are coming off high-scoring affairs in Minnesota, but Oklahoma City has showcased the ability to control a game and stifle an opponent with its defense more efficiently at home this postseason. The Timberwolves scored just 88 and 103 points (95.5 ppg) over the first two games in Oklahoma City, as the noise and fan presence truly make a difference at the Paycom Center. The Under hits in over 60% of simulations.
Naz Reid Over 9.5 points (+102)
Reid has gone Over this total in three straight games, and the model expects trend to continue with an 11-point projection on Wednesday. The Timberwolves center averaged 14.2 points per game this season and although that average has dropped to 10.4 ppg this postseason, he’s still played at least 23 minutes in three of four games this series and scored at least 10 points in three straight contests. Reid scored at least 10 points in 29 of 46 road games (63%) this year, and averaged 9.5 shots over the first two games of the series in Oklahoma City. The 6-foot-9 center has made three 3-pointers over his last two games, so with the ability to score inside and outside, the model projects enough opportunities for Reid to post 10+ points yet again in Game 5.
Want more NBA picks for today?
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You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Mike Barner, who’s on a sizzling 173-119 (+3358) roll on his last 292 NBA player prop picks. He already has multiple player prop bets for Wednesday, including one on SGA. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 33 units.
