For the fifth time this season and third time this month, the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic will face off – this time with a playoff spot on the line.
Atlanta is the No. 8 seed and will be on the road in this matchup even though it knocked off a shorthanded Orlando team in the final game of the regular season. The Magic, who finished with the No. 5 seed in the East last season, have battled through some injuries but locked up the No. 7 seed in the East earlier last week.
These teams split their four meetings in the regular season, but oddsmakers have the Magic set as favorites on Tuesday night.
One key in this matchup is going to be the pace of play, as Atlanta loves to push the pace, but also ranks in the bottom five in the NBA in opponent points per game.
Can Orlando take advantage? Well, the Magic are a bottom-five team in offensive rating this season, and they’re even worse in terms of shooting the ball (29th in effective field goal percentage).
So, this is a clash of styles since Orlando has relied on its defense to keep it in the mix for a playoff spot this season. The reward for winning this game is a playoff spot, although it means a date with the defending champion Boston Celtics in the first round.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this play-in tournament clash.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Hawks Injury Report
Magic Injury Report
Atlanta Hawks Best NBA Prop Bet
No team in the NBA allows fewer assists to its opponents than the Orlando Magic (22.7 per game), and they’ve held Trae Young under 10.5 assists in all three of his matchups against them this season.
Now, Young is averaging 11.6 assists per game for the season, but in the playoffs, he’s seen his assist numbers drop compared to his career average. Young averages 9.8 assists per game in the regular season for his career and 9.0 in the playoffs.
It’s not a huge change, but I expect the Magic to try to take the Hawks’ star out of this game on the offensive end. Young could still have a solid game passing the ball and fall short of 10.5 dimes on Tuesday.
Orlando Magic Best NBA Prop Bet
Paolo Banchero has just dominated the Hawks this season, scoring 31, 33, and 36 points in his three meetings against them.
Atlanta ranks in the bottom five in the NBA in opponent points per game, so it’s not surprising to see Banchero thriving on the offensive end. Not only that, but the Magic forward had 30 or more points in 10 of his last 19 games (since the start of March) to close the regular season, averaging 29.1 points per game over that stretch.
In the playoffs last season, Banchero averaged 21.3 shots per game in a seven-game series against Cleveland. If he’s relied on this much in the play-in tournament, he should be in the mix for a 30-point showing.
These teams are fairly evenly matched, and they have impressive trends in this spot this season:
However, I keep coming back to one major concern with the Magic in this matchup and in the playoffs. Orlando’s offense simply is not good enough in the half-court to win close games all the time, even though it is an elite defensive team.
The Magic are 29th in the league in effective field goal percentage and 27th in offensive rating, posting a worse offensive rating than the Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans, and Toronto Raptors (to name a few) in the 2024-25 season.
Atlanta, on the other hand, was 17th in both offensive rating and effective field goal percentage, even though it played at the No. 3 pace in the league. The Hawks can be inefficient at times, but they love to push the pace and play an offensive brand of basketball.
If Orlando slows this game down into a half-court grind, it may help it keep things close because of its elite defense (No. 2 in defensive rating), but ultimately, I’m worried about the Magic scoring enough to cover this number.
These teams split their season series, and Orlando’s wins came by just six and seven points. While that would be enough to cover here, I naturally am expecting an even tighter game with a playoff spot on the line.
I’ll take the points between these division rivals, as I think Atlanta’s offense could ultimately flip this game in its favor.
Pick: Hawks +5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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