Can the Miami Heat advance out of the play-in tournament for the third straight season?
The No. 10-seeded Heat have an intriguing matchup on Wednesday night against the Chicago Bulls, who rode a late-season push to the No. 9 seed in the Eastern Conference.
During the regular season, Chicago swept the Heat 3-0, including a crucial win in April that essentially locked up the No. 9 spot for the Bulls.
However, this is a familiar spot for Erik Spoelstra’s group. Miami has earned the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference by way of the play-in tournament in back-to-back years. However, this time the Heat will have to win two games in a row, a tougher task than simply winning one of two like it did last season.
Oddsmakers have set this matchup at a near pick’em, although the Bulls are one-point favorites, though the odds on the spread are juiced towards Miami.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this play-in tournament clash.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Heat Injury Report
Bulls Injury Report
Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet
Adebayo has not had his best offensive season in the NBA, but he is averaging 18.1 points per game overall, including 20.6 points per game in 27 games after the All-Star break.
This is a great matchup for Adebayo, as the Bulls allow the most points in the paint per game in the NBA.
In his three meetings with Chicago, the Heat big man scored 18, 22, and 23 points. He’s going to have a huge role in this game, and his experience in high-leverage playoff situations makes him a safer target than some other players on this Miami roster.
If Chicago pushes the pace in this game and makes it a high-scoring affair, Bam should benefit.
Chicago Bulls Best NBA Prop Bet
Based on the odds for various props for Giddey, it seems like oddsmakers believe he’s a 50/50 shot to record a triple-double tonight.
Essentially, oddsmakers think the one spot Giddey may fall short is in the assists department (he’s +105 to get 10 or more), so why not get +225 odds for him to record his eighth triple-double of the season?
Since the All-Star break, Giddey is averaging 21.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game. He recorded five of his seven triple-doubles during that stretch, including a 28-16-11 game against Miami in their final meeting of the regular season.
He should play major minutes in this game, and I like the value at +225 since the assists appear to be the market where he’ll be a little shaky when it comes to this prop.
It’s really hard to pick a side in this matchup with the spread so close, so instead I’m looking to the total for my best bet.
This season, the Bulls and Heat have played some high-scoring games, thanks to Chicago’s penchant for pushing the pace.
In their three meetings, they combined for 230, 223, and 257 points, easily clearing this total on multiple occasions.
It’s worth noting that the Heat are the No. 9 defense in the NBA, but I’m actually intrigued by a recent trend for them offensively.
Miami was fourth in the NBA in offensive rating over its last 10 games, and both of these teams were in the top half of the NBA in offensive rating since the All-Star break.
It’s no secret that Chicago would like to play an uptempo style, and as a result, the Bulls have allowed the third-most points per game in the league this season.
Spoelstra’s experience in the play-in makes it tough for me to back the Bulls here, but I do think both of these teams are able to sneak into the 110s and push this total over on Wednesday night.
Pick: OVER 219 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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