MIAMI – With Davion Mitchell and Tyler Herro staging a 3-for-all in overtime of the April 18 play-in victory over the Atlanta Hawks to clinch a playoff berth, the Miami Heat effectively gave up their seat at Monday night’s NBA draft lottery.
Instead, no lottery pick for the Heat, with the Heat’s No. 15 selection in the June 25 first-round of the NBA draft now belonging to the Oklahoma City Thunder, to complete a previous trade obligation.
And yet, it still could be difficult from a Heat perspective not to sneak a peak at the lottery results when they are revealed Monday in Chicago on ESPN starting at 7 p.m., considering the Dallas Mavericks are the Heat.
Why?
Because had the Heat missed the playoffs, had they not advanced out of the play-in round, they would have been seeded No. 11 in the lottery, at the same spot and with similar odds as held now by the Mavericks, who slotted into that No. 11 lottery seed by being eliminated in the play-in round.
Almost all of the same four-digit numerical combinations assigned to the Mavericks at No. 11 would have been the Heat’s lottery tickets had the Heat not instead gone on to endure the ignominy of the most lopsided playoff sweep in NBA history at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
With only the first four picks in the draft allocated in the random portion of the weighted draw, the No. 11 pick sets up with a 2% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, a 2.2% chance at the No. 2 pick, a 2.4% chance at No. 3 and a 2.8% chance at No. 4, for an 9.4% overall chance at a top-four selection.
For the Heat’s mental health, little would be more relieving than to see Dallas’ logo being raised by NBA Deputy Commission Mark Tatum at No. 11 or a higher numerical slot.
The No. 11 lottery seed, which the Mavericks are and the Heat would have been had they not become the first No. 10 seed to advance to the playoffs, has a 77.59% chance of landing at No. 11, a 13.45% chance of dropping to No. 12, a 0.45% chance of falling to No. 13 and less than a 0.01% chance of dropping to No. 14, the last lottery slot.
The irony is that if the Mavericks move up from No. 11, they would do something the Heat never have done.
The Heat have been in the lottery 11 times, holding their seed five times (Tyler Herro at No 13 in 2019; Bam Adebayo at No. 14 in 2017; Justise Winslow at No. 10 in 2015; Caron Butler at No. 10 in 2002; Kurt Thomas at No. 10 in 1995), dropping one spot four times (Michael Beasley at No. 2 in 2008; Dwyane Wade at No. 5 in 2003; Lindsey Hunter at No. 10 in 1993; and Mahmoud Andul-Rauf at No. 11 in 1990); and falling three spots twice (Steve Smith at No. 5 in 1991; and Glen Rice at No. 4 in 1989). Hunter and Abdul-Rauf were traded in pre-arranged draft deals.
While not involved in the actual process on Monday night, it does not necessarily mean the Heat are without a stake, with six Eastern Conference rivals high in the lottery order, with the Washington Wizards the No. 2 seed, the Charlotte Hornets the No. 3 seed, the Philadelphia 76ers the No. 5 seed, the Brooklyn Nets at the No. 6 seed and the Toronto Raptors the No. 7 seed.
Add Duke freshman sensation Cooper Flagg, the overwhelming consensus choice to go No. 1, to any of those teams and the playoff calculus would further heighten for a Heat team aiming not to continue with these annual visits to the play-in round.
For the 76ers, whose season was capsized by injuries to Joel Embiid and Paul George, ascension to higher ground in the East would practically be assured. Further at play for Philadelphia is that if their first-round pick does not fall within the first six, it conveys to Oklahoma City.
For the Raptors, who finished one spot below the Heat in the standings, it would add another immediate challenger.
And for the Wizards, Hornets and Nets, it potentially could fast track rebuilds as the Heat struggle to regain their footing in this post-Jimmy Butler era.
In last year’s lottery, the Hawks jumped from the No. 10 lottery seed to No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher, with Houston going from No. 12 to No. 3 and selecting Reed Shephard.
So, no, the Heat do not have a direct stake in Monday night’s random-but-weighted drawing. But the process could open eyes to what might have been, as well as what comes next in an Eastern Conference hierarchy potentially reset.
As it is, the Heat hold the No. 20 pick in the first round, the selection acquired from the Golden State Warriors at the Feb. 6 NBA trading deadline in the Jimmy Butler transaction.
That has the Heat in scouting mode, with the lottery held as part of the ongoing draft combine in Chicago.
