The first full week of Major League Baseball’s new season is here, and it can’t come soon enough for four particular teams. The Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers, and Minnesota Twins exited Opening Weekend with a combined 0-13 record and minus-53 run differential. For the mathematically disinclined: that means those teams were outscored by more than four runs per loss.
Baseball differs from other sports in how much a three- or four-game losing streak to begin the season matters. The reality is that it’s not always a code red situation. In fact, at this time last year, the New York Mets were 0-4; they went on to make the National League Championship Series. In 2023, the Philadelphia Phillies started 0-4; they won 90 games and similarly lost in the NLCS. And so on. We won’t go so far as to write that an 0-3 or 0-4 start is just part of the natural ebb and flow of the season, but we believe there’s enough recent precedent to recognize that all hope is not lost for these clubs.
Even, so this is a baseball website and there are certain expectations for our coverage. With that in mind, below we’ve addressed one question for each of the four winless teams: should they be worried? Do note that the teams are presented in descending order of their run differential.
1. Detroit Tigers
Record: 0-3 (swept by Los Angeles Dodgers)
Run differential: Minus-8
The Tigers were our pick for the 2024 playoff team most likely to miss this year’s tournament based on a so-so offseason (they added Jack Flaherty, Gleyber Torres, and Alex Cobb without taking a bigger swing) and last year’s overperformance of a middling run differential. That is to say: we’re concerned about their playoff aspirations, but not because they were swept on the road by the defending champions. In the Tigers’ defense, their lineup is currently without Parker Meadows, Matt Vierling, and Wenceel Pérez; they’re also certain to receive better performances from Tarik Skubal, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, and Reese Olson the rest of the way. If you felt OK about this club a week ago, nothing that has transpired since should have changed your mind.
Concern level: High, but not because of this week
2. Atlanta Braves
Record: 0-4 (swept by San Diego Padres)
Run differential: Minus-10
The Braves are coming off a season full of injuries and offensive underperformance. Unfortunately for Atlanta, a defensible preseason pick to win at least the National League East, the opening series against the Padres was more of the same. The Braves offense ranks 29th in wRC+ after being shut out in consecutive games. As a result, they scored all of seven runs across their first four contests. The good news for the Braves is that this slump won’t last, and that eventually ace Spencer Strider and franchise player Ronald Acuña Jr. will return from the shelf. The bad news is that, at least in the immediate future, things might get worse: they begin a three-game set versus the Dodgers on Monday night.
Concern level: Low
3. Minnesota Twins
Record: 0-3 (swept by St. Louis Cardinals)
Run differential: Minus-13
The Twins are a bricolage of the Tigers and Braves’ starts. Minnesota currently ranks last in the majors in wRC+ after scoring six runs and hitting .167 as a unit against the Cardinals. They have more batters with a negative OPS+ (five) than they have with an OPS+ over 30 (four). At the same time, we’re less worried about those three games and more worried about their roster’s inherent downside. Let’s face it: this team has to maximize every single day where they have at least two of Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis in the lineup if they want to return to the playoffs. There being such a sense of urgency around that trio’s availability is the biggest reason to fret about these Twins.
Concern level: High but, again, not because of this series
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 0-3 (swept by New York Yankees)
Run differential: Minus-22
There’s no sugarcoating it: Saturday and Sunday’s games were abysmal for the Brewers. Their pitching staff was torched for 13 home runs by the Yankees (Aaron Civale, who started one of those games, has since been placed on the injured list), and despite playing in some apparently favorable hitting conditions, they themselves mustered all of three home runs across the series. And yet, we’ll echo what we wrote about the Tigers: if you were down on the Brewers — and hey, without delving into complexity theory, they always seem to outperform expectations — then maybe you feel empowered; if you liked this team a week ago (and we did), there’s little reason to materially shift your expectations.
Concern level: Moderate based on their polarizing roster
