Two weekends remain in the 2024-25 NBA regular season. By next Sunday, 10 teams will be finished with their seasons, 12 will have locked up a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference and Western Conference and eight will be thrown into the Play-In Tournament to determine the seventh and eighth spots in the East and West.
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The Play-In Tournament has a way of shaking things up. Those spots will be determined April 15-18. But with apologies to the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings, we are going to examine the standings as they are right now.
Here are the first-round series as of Thursday, 1o days before the season ends:
Eastern Conference
No. 8 Atlanta Hawks (36-40) vs. No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers (61-15)
There’s nothing like a playoff series between two teams that made a trade that involved rotation players.
Cleveland acquired forward De’Andre Hunter from Atlanta at the February deadline in exchange for forward Georges Niang and guard Caris LeVert, a deal that helped both teams.
The Cavaliers are gearing up for a potential playoff rematch with the Boston Celtics, while the Hawks got some depth in their second unit.
This would be a very intriguing series because the Hawks are one of two teams in the East that managed to beat the Cavaliers multiple times. The only other team in the East that the Cavaliers couldn’t beat twice this season is the Indiana Pacers, and Cleveland will play the Pacers two more times before next Sunday.
All three meetings between the Hawks and Cavaliers took place before the Hunter trade, so a playoff series would offer a fresh look for both teams. The matchup to watch is Trae Young and Darius Garland, two small All-Star point guards. The Hawks allow some of the highest percentages from 3-point range in the league, while the Cavaliers are one of the most accurate 3-point shooting teams. This could decide a potential series.
No. 5 Detroit Pistons (42-34) vs. No. 4 Indiana Pacers (45-31)
These Central Division rivals could meet early in the playoffs two decades after “The Malice at the Palace.” The Pistons haven’t won a playoff game since the 2008 Eastern Conference finals, getting swept in 2009, ’16 and ’19. But this is the best Pistons team in 17 years.
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The only time the Pistons beat the Pacers this season was during the NBA Cup, and the Pacers played without key defenders Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith while the Pistons put up 130 points.
Indiana All-Star power forward Pascal Siakam has enjoyed playing the Pistons this season. He’s averaging 25.8 points on 56 percent shooting. While the point guard matchup between Cade Cunningham and Tyrese Haliburton is intriguing, Siakam offers Haliburton help that the Pistons might not be able to match.
No. 6 Milwaukee Bucks (41-34) vs. No. 3 New York Knicks (48-28)
The Bucks probably would rather get in the 4-5 matchup and face one of their Central Division rivals. The Knicks went 3-0 against the Bucks this season, while the only game the Bucks have lost to either the Pistons or Pacers required a game-winning four-point play by Haliburton in Indiana last month.
The question mark for both teams revolves around the health of the All-Star point guards.
Milwaukee’s Damian Lillard hasn’t played since March 18 as he battles deep vein thrombosis in his right calf, while New York’s Jalen Brunson hasn’t played since spraining his right ankle on March 6. Neither Lillard nor Brunson played in the final meeting of the season last week in Milwaukee, while Giannis Antetokounmpo outplayed Karl-Anthony Towns.
The Knicks still won due to Mikal Bridges’ shot making and the lack of rebounding and ballhandling around Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee had no answers for Brunson and Towns when the two All-Stars played together this season.
No. 7 Orlando Magic (37-40) vs. No. 2 Boston Celtics (56-20)
Orlando hosts the Celtics one more time this season, a meeting that will decide the regular-season series. Boston All-Star Jayson Tatum did not play in Orlando when the Celtics blew a 15-point halftime lead right before Christmas while missing 25 of 33 3s. When Tatum faced the Magic in Boston in January, the Celtics won 121-94.
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The Magic are the best defense in the East, but this matchup loses quite a bit of juice due to the season-ending knee surgery that sidelined Orlando point guard Jalen Suggs. As physical as the Magic are, it is difficult to play that way against the Celtics for an entire series.
Boston also has a top-five defense, while the Magic would be the worst-ranked postseason offense (27th) in eight years. You know what will happen when the team that makes the most 3s (Boston) meets the team that makes the fewest (Orlando); it’s a talent mismatch, no disrespect to Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
Western Conference
No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies (44-32) vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (64-12)
I mentioned a month ago that the Grizzlies are a team you’d want to see in the playoffs. As rude as that sentiment was, Memphis has lost nine of 15 games since and relieved head coach Taylor Jenkins of his duties. The Grizzlies were by themselves in second place just five weeks ago.
Jenkins’ final game as coach came against the Thunder in Oklahoma City. As entertaining as that game was through three quarters, it wound up ending the same way the previous three meetings did: in a loss decided by double digits. Oklahoma City scored at least 120 points in all four meetings against the Grizzlies this season, while Memphis was held under 115 points in all four. MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had no problem with the Grizzlies, averaging 36.3 points on 53.7 percent field goals in the regular-season series. Yes, the Thunder would enjoy this matchup if it happens.
No. 5 Golden State Warriors (44-31) vs. No. 4 Denver Nuggets (47-30)
The Warriors were alone in 11th place when January ended, but the addition of Jimmy Butler III has put them in position to avoid the Play-In Tournament.
Going to Denver would not be much of a prize, though. The Nuggets are one of three teams, along with the LA Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers, the Warriors have yet to beat this season. The Warriors will face all three of those teams before the season ends, but they lost to the Nuggets with and without MVP candidate Nikola Jokić in the lineup. In the game Jokić did not play, the Nuggets went to Golden State without Jamal Murray and Christian Braun as well and found a way to be the second team to beat the Warriors with both Curry and Butler playing. These are the last two West teams to win a championship, so it would certainly be the most discussed first-round series if it happens.
No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves (44-32) vs. No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers (46-29)
Do you remember Luka Dončić toying with Rudy Gobert in Minnesota before snatching the soul of the Timberwolves to end Game 2 of the 2024 Western Conference finals? Well, Dončić is a Laker now, and that’s what the Timberwolves would have to deal with to survive the first round if this is the matchup.
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The home team won all four matchups this season. Only one of those meetings involved Dončić, and that was a 111-102 Lakers win that saw Minnesota All-Star shooting guard Anthony Edwards ejected. Edwards didn’t have much help in that late February meeting, as Gobert and power forward Julius Randle were out and Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid missed 7 of 28 shots. LeBron James spent most of his night defending Reid, while Austin Reaves hid on Mike Conley. Of all of the potential first-round matchups, this one has the most potential to go the full seven games.
No. 7 LA Clippers (44-32) vs. No. 2 Houston Rockets (50-27)
The Clippers had a nightmare of a Play-In Tournament experience three years ago, blowing double-digit leads in Minnesota and at home to a New Orleans Pelicans team that had six more losses than them in the regular season. Right now, the Clippers are rolling, but they don’t want to deal with the Play-In. Being the seventh or eighth seed means the Clippers would be facing a Thunder team they went 0-4 against or a Rockets team they’ve gone 0-3 against this season.
The Rockets will visit Intuit Dome next week in what will be the second night of a back-to-back for the Clippers, and Houston has yet to face Kawhi Leonard this season. This would be quite the matchup, as the Rockets are returning to the postseason for the first time since trading James Harden in 2021; now, Harden is leading a Clippers team along with Leonard that has a significant edge in postseason experience. Houston’s athleticism gave the Clippers a whale of a time during the season, but when it comes to pure talent, the Clippers may have the edge in the starting lineup, and they certainly will have it when the teams go to the benches.
(Top photo of LeBron James and Anthony Edwards: Harry How / Getty Images)
