With the NBA Finals set to begin on Thursday, teams have been tasked with learning from the drama and historic on-court moments in this year’s playoffs to inform the crucial decisions they’ll be making once the NBA offseason officially begins in a few weeks.
Based on this year’s results, one lesson is clear: It’s really difficult to win without great guards.
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Each of this year’s conference finalists — Oklahoma City, Minnesota, New York and Indiana — was led by an All-NBA-caliber guard capable of dominating games. Related: It’s crucial to have complementary guards who help bring out the best of those ball-dominant stars.
As great as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been this season, the presence of Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Lu Dort has transformed the Thunder from a fun, young team into a ferocious defensive juggernaut. Tyrese Haliburton has been sensational during the Pacers’ run to the Finals, but would their high-flying offense look the same without Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith?
Before the draft lottery, the Pelicans had hopes of moving up to land a potential All-Star in the backcourt. Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe were the top candidates. Now that New Orleans has the No. 7 pick in the NBA Draft on June 25, the targets have changed, but the objective remains the same.
The Pelicans have a clear need in the backcourt. There are some obvious concerns about how that group will function in the present and how it’ll evolve in the future. New Orleans will begin next season without starting point guard Dejounte Murray as he continues his rehab from a ruptured Achilles tendon he suffered in January. Veteran guard CJ McCollum, who turns 34 in September, is heading into the final year of his contract. Bruce Brown, one of the pieces acquired from Toronto in the Brandon Ingram trade, is an unrestricted free agent. Former first-round pick Jordan Hawkins is also coming off a down year after dealing with lingering back issues.
“Best guard available” makes a lot of sense for the Pelicans. Let’s look at the top options at No. 7:
Kon Knueppel, 6-foot-6, 219 pounds, Duke, freshman
Pros: Even though he doesn’t turn 20 until August, Knueppel is a knockdown shooter with a polished offensive game and a clear understanding of his likely NBA role. Although Knueppel benefited from playing with as much frontcourt talent as he had around him at Duke, putting him next to Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy would allow the Duke prospect to show off his shooting prowess and limit some of the on-ball responsibilities he had to take on in college.
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Coming in as a 219-pound rookie shouldn’t be overlooked, either. As his body matures, he could be able to bully defenders in the paint. It’s tempting to categorize Knueppel as a “skinny White guy who can shoot” similar to Luke Kennard and Duncan Robinson, but he’s more than that. He’s really comfortable using his size to create off the dribble. He has the personality and the on-court polish of someone who can easily play 10-plus years in the NBA.
Cons: If Knueppel’s ceiling is lower than some of the other options who will be available, would it make more sense to take a shot on someone who has a better chance of becoming an All-Star down the line? Even beyond that, Knueppel’s lateral movement and lack of athleticism carry some concerns about his potential defensive impact. I don’t think he’ll be an easy target teams can go at repeatedly, but he’ll have limitations. Teams love targeting the weakest defender — and Knueppel will have a target on his back from Day 1.
While he was pretty good as an on-ball playmaker at Duke, Knueppel probably won’t be doing as much of that in the NBA. How much does it limit his offensive impact if he doesn’t develop into a player who can make plays off the bounce?
Tre Johnson, 6-6, 190 pounds, Texas, freshman
Pros: Johnson was one of the highest-scoring freshmen in college basketball last year and, on most nights, carried a Texas squad that wasn’t loaded with talent. Johnson is a tough shotmaker with a quick release and a fearless approach. Considering how many 3s he got up on a nightly basis (6.8 per game) and the degree of difficulty on his shots, Johnson’s 39.7 percent accuracy from deep is even more impressive. If you put him on the court with Williamson and Murphy, he’s going to punish teams that give him open looks.
If there were a contest to determine who among this year’s draft class is the most likely to make 10 3-pointers in an NBA game, Johnson would be my first pick — easily. That’s how dangerous he can be once he heats up. If he can refine some of the other parts of his game, the threat he brings as a 3-point shooter should make him really tough to defend. Look at the progress Tyler Herro has made in using his shooting to keep defenders off balance. The hope is that Johnson can get there one day.
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Cons: Johnson has some of the same limitations Knueppel brings as a defender, except packaged in a much smaller frame. At times, he fails to bring the consistent focus and physicality required to succeed on that end. Johnson really enjoys playing offense but doesn’t seem to enjoy the other end nearly as much. Johnson doesn’t turn 20 until March, so he still has a lot of maturing to do physically and mentally. He has the tools and competitive spirit to be impactful defensively. He just needs an environment that’ll demand that approach from him every night.
Johnson also has a tendency to play too fast on offense. He dribbles into the lane without a plan. He rushes layup attempts to avoid shot blockers. He’ll have to add strength so he can feel more comfortable maintaining his position and preventing defenders from pushing him off his spot. He’s a gunner but shows flashes of good vision — he just needs to be a more willing passer.
Jeremiah Fears, 6-4, 180 pounds, Oklahoma, freshman
Pros: Fears is more of a natural fit for the Pelicans’ immediate needs with Murray injured. Fears is an old-school point guard who makes plays out of pick-and-roll and gets into the paint at will. He has an excellent handle, quickness and a feel for finding gaps in defenses. His assist numbers weren’t great at Oklahoma, but he sees the entire floor when he gets downhill. He’s the kind of point guard who can maximize Yves Missi as a lob threat or Herbert Jones as a corner 3-point specialist.
Adding his speed and athleticism to what this team already has would make New Orleans extremely dangerous in transition. The Pelicans have made some poor decisions in the past at point guard (Lonzo Ball, Devonte Graham, McCollum, Murray, etc). With Fears, the Pelicans can finally lean into a long-term answer at a crucial position. Fears also brings a fearless nature and swagger this team has been missing.
Cons: Fears is scrappy on defense but he lacks size. It’s not impossible, but it becomes really difficult to field a top-tier defense that features a smaller player who other teams can attack on switches.
Fears’ struggles as a shooter are a bigger concern. In his only season at Oklahoma, he shot 43.4 percent from the field and 28.4 percent on 3s. He has a smooth jumper that should improve over time. However, in today’s NBA, guards who can’t punish teams that go under screens against them have a really hard time. Having a guy like that next to Williamson is nearly impossible. If teams can help off Fears and muck up the spacing around Williamson, Fears will have trouble staying on the floor.
In general, Fears seems like a player who would benefit greatly from having a year off to sit and learn — sort of like what the Minnesota Timberwolves did with Rob Dillingham. But do the Pelicans have the luxury of taking someone at No. 7 who may not contribute right away?
Conclusion: If I had to rank these three based on fit with the Pelicans, I’d go Knueppel first, Fears second and Johnson third. Ultimately, any of them would be a good pick based on what this team needs.
(Photo: Scott Wachter / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
