In NBA playoffs, adjustments are the word for Game 3: What to expect in four tied series

HOUSTON — Sometimes coaches get to choose the adjustments. Sometimes the adjustments are chosen for them.

The Golden State Warriors learned that the hard way Wednesday, when Brandin Podziemski’s illness and Jimmy Butler’s early injury forced them to try little-used combinations in a fruitless effort to reel in the Houston Rockets; Golden State lost 109-94 and will head back to the Bay with the series tied at one game apiece.

Of course, Houston had something to say about this outcome, too. Jalen Green was massively better than in the opening game, even accounting for the Warriors’ shorthandedness, and the Rockets were generally sharp and aware. Even before Butler went out, they had the upper hand. Check out this exquisite defense by Dillon Brooks against a Butler iso, for instance, forcing a wild brick.

Or how about Jalen Green drawing Draymond Green on him in a transition matchup and then hitting Alperen Şengün on a quick duck-in for an easy bucket against the smaller Moses Moody. The Rockets struggled to improvise easy points like this in the opener; as good as Jalen Green in scoring 38 points, his four first-quarter assists helped set the tone.

We joke about the “Play Better” adjustment, but the “Rubber Band Effect” is one of the realities of the NBA playoffs. The team that loses Game 1, historically, outpaces statistical expectations in Game 2, particularly if they were defeated at home in the opener. Since 2021, those teams are 19-4, with 15 of the wins by double digits (hat tip to Sportico’s Lev Akabas). That’s some mean regression to the mean.

We saw that in action in each of the four series that are tied 1-1 entering Thursday. (The Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic, Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat, who all trail 2-0, now face long odds and may soon be looking at the “Cancun Adjustment.”) That phenomenon wasn’t just here in Houston either; take the Lakers-Timberwolves series, for example. Game 1 saw the Lakers play like they were trying to save Nico Harrison’s job and the Wolves shoot approximately 99 percent from 3; the first half of Game 2 was basically the polar opposite.

Indeed, often a big part of the “Play Better” adjustment is just normal, 3-point variance evening out (greetings, Timberwolves!). That makes it hard to distinguish the tactical battles going on behind the scenes that also can have a big impact on how these series play out.

In Houston, Game 1 gave us an immediate indication that Space City had a fairly tragic spacing problem. The most glaring example was this play in the second quarter, when a trap of a Fred VanVleet pick-and-roll resulted in an open short roll for Steven Adams. What happened next was nothing short of hilarious.

Adams is open at the free-throw line but not a threat to score from there. So he kicked the ball to Şengün on the wing above the 3-point line, who was also open and not a threat to score from there. So Şengün kicked the ball to Amen Thompson in the corner, who was also open, but again, not a threat to score from there.

The Rockets theoretically executed the play perfectly, getting three of their five players the ball with an open shot. Unfortunately, they also had three non-shooters on the floor. Hey guys, 1997 called. It wants its offense back.

Houston has experimented with this monstrous Adams-Şengün frontcourt at various points in the season but had only played it 59 regular-season minutes with Thompson. You could see why, even though their size and athleticism can present problems (a 55.9 percent offensive rebound rate!). The Rockets destroyed Golden State in Game 1 on the offensive boards, keeping 22 of their 53 misses, and generally kept the Warriors’ attack under control; they needed three late-clock grenade 3s from Stephen Curry just to get to 95 points.

And yet the Rockets lost the opener because their base offense was so ridiculously bad. Rocket boosters (sorry) will point out other reasons Houston lost, including a brutal shooting night from Jalen Green that flipped the other way in Game 2.

But go back and look at Game 1 again. Draymond Green, in particular, spent the entire game in the paint, not at all concerned about Şengün or Adams making a jump shot. Another farcical scene from the game was Adams pointing to the ref that Draymond Green was committing a defensive-three-second violation while hanging out in the paint, not guarding Adams. Draymond Green raced out to tag Adams, and Thompson took advantage of the moment of space to hit a pull-up jumper on the post.

Again, Houston fixed some of those things in Game 2. Fouls limited Thompson to 23 minutes while Aaron Holiday got a few rotation minutes, adding more spacing to several Rockets lineups. Houston used a more accomplished shooter (Jabari Smith Jr.) next to Şengün and Adams when it played big, the Rockets were smarter about things like “two players cutting to the same spot under the basket” and Butler’s absence left the Warriors with more exploitable defensive matchups that Jalen Green could manipulate.

Even so, you could see why Golden State entered Wednesday feeling relatively good about life, and probably still does if Butler can return. It’s going to be hard for Jalen Green and VanVleet to burn them consistently from the perimeter; the offensive rebounds are a problem but are only possible if Houston bricks a shot in the first place.

Golden State’s offense hasn’t exactly shone, but the Warriors likely can do better at home with a healthy Podziemski, especially if Butler can return by Game 4. If the Warriors can avoid brainlock turnovers that lead to easy run-outs (I know, but hear me out), they likely can control things even without needing a crazy Curry heater to bail them out.

Pistons, Knicks and the quest for space

Have we already had our biggest upset of the playoffs?

No team complained more about the refs this year than the Detroit Pistons. No coach complains about the refs less than Tom Thibodeau. Yet after Game 2, it was Thibodeau playing the ref card in a game in which the Pistons were called for more fouls and Jalen Brunson got 11 free throws. The Pistons were a foul-prone team in the regular season, and the Knicks were not, so this likely would have reset organically in future games, but now it will be an annoying, whiny talking point the rest of the series. Fun times.

Aside from that, everyone has already harped on the Knicks’ atrocious spacing, and our Fred Katz put together a great piece illustrating how Karl-Anthony Towns turned into Tony Snell during the second half of Game 2. So the question is, what can New York do about it?

Again, the “Play Better” adjustment matters here (c’mon, Karl; would you just kick Tobias Harris’ butt already?) Short of that, however, the more draconian adjustment available to New York — and one the Knicks might be forced to make in a series with the Boston Celtics even if they aren’t by the Pistons — is to pull Josh Hart off the court and play more threatening shooters such as Miles McBride or Game 1 hero Cameron Payne. That subtracts rebounding and some open-court play from the Knicks’ menu, but it may be the only way to unleash Towns by forcing the Pistons to guard him with a center.

The Knicks also have some on-court adjustments they can make, even with the same personnel. Their spacing has been sloppy, at best, and Brunson hasn’t played at his usual level. The Pistons are top-locking some of their favorite actions for Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby, and the Knicks haven’t burned them with back cuts. Even if they keep Hart on the floor with Towns, they need to pull him when Mitchell Robinson checks in — it’s like playing with two centers. New York also ended the first quarter of Game 2 with a goofy lineup where Anunoby was the only starter; can we not do that again?

All this Knicks-centric chatter ignores the fact that the Pistons have some agency in this series and some cards to play. And while I will continue to root for the “Let Paul Reed Cook” adjustment, I don’t think that one is the likely move. Detroit has 37 turnovers in two games and has mustered only 57 3-point attempts.

J.B. Bickerstaff might try to overcome that by leaning further into spacing, bringing Simone Fontecchio out of cold storage and back in the wing mix; the Pistons have gotten nothing from Ron Holland in the first two games and not a whole lot more from Ausar Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. The Knicks may also try to mash Harris with Towns early and often in Game 3; if so, an obvious option is sending doubles his way, which often leads to wild passes from Towns.

I tend to agree with others that New York is still in relatively good shape; even with their errors in Game 2, the Knicks still had a great chance to tie the game. But the Pistons have been ready for most of New York’s pet actions, and Little Caesars Arena will be absolutely lit on Thursday.  This is a series now.

Did the Clippers get lucky?

It’s ironic, given the awesomeness of the star players on each side, that the two LA Clippers-Denver Nuggets games have been decided by which team can avoid making comical, grade-school level turnovers. The Clippers had 20 turnovers in Game 1, several of which happened more than 30 feet from the basket; in Game 2, the Nuggets returned the favor with 20 miscues of their own; again, several were in LOL territory.

That said, I haven’t seen a lot of discussion of the Clippers’ unreal shot chart from their Game 2 win. LA only made nine shots at the rim the entire game but converted a preposterous 18 non-rim 2s on an equally eye-popping 31 attempts. Kawhi Leonard shot a ridiculous 13 of 17 on shots beyond 10 feet, but it wasn’t just Leonard: Ivica Zubac, James Harden, Norman Powell and Derrick Jones Jr. all made floaters.

On the flip side, Denver had to feel pretty good about its own shots, at least on the possessions the Nuggets took one. Denver only made four 2s outside the charge circle, two of which were attempted 3s where the shooter had a foot on the line; the Nuggets only had 13 non-rim 2-point attempts. And while the Clippers were raining tough middies all night, the Nuggets missed a wide-open dunk from one of the league’s best dunkers (Aaron Gordon) late in the fourth quarter. Sometimes it goes like that.

As the series heads to Los Angeles, Nuggets interim coach David Adelman has acquitted himself very well so far. He stemmed a Clippers parade to the rim at the start of Game 1 by first switching to a zone to stop the bleeding and then moving Nikola Jokić further up the floor. He made the right call closing Game 1 with Russell Westbrook, and his Game 2 decision not to call a timeout on the final possession gave them an open look at a game-tying shot.

One thing Adelman might try, however, is taking a page from the Clippers’ playbook against Westbrook by making Kris Dunn more of a main character. Watch this key last-minute basket by Leonard, for instance; Jamal Murray could have come from the weak side to double Leonard and force the ball into Dunn’s hands, but instead, he glides straight past him to the opposite corner. 

On a similar play a minute earlier, Leonard mashed Gordon on the block for a turnaround jumper while Michael Porter Jr. stood in easy doubling range, with his man (Dunn) harmlessly parked above the break.

That said, Adelman doesn’t have a lot of cards to play personnel-wise, while the Clippers can have a bit more fun. LA might try introducing Amir Coffey to the mix after Bogdan Bogdanović struggled badly in the first two games; he’ll make some of the jumpers that bounced out, but losing his dribble three times in two games is more troubling.

The game-within-a-game in this series, however, is whether Leonard can stay hot enough on a diet of tough shots that the Nuggets feel compelled to double-team him … or whether Denver believes the Game 2 shot chart is a pathway to likely victory and tries to repeat it.

Can Wolves stay with their switches?

The Timberwolves seemed to surprise the Lakers in Game 1 by not really trapping or blitzing Luka Dončić and just living with whatever he did one-on-one against switches. As a result, Dončić got his — he finished with 37 points — but he had just one assist, and the rest of the Lakers starved.

The Lakers were more ready for the tactics in Game 2, and things went slightly better, especially in the first half; Dončić finished with 31 points and nine assists. That said, “switch and live with it” seems to be going a lot better for Minnesota than you’d think; Dončić is scoring, but his teammates are bystanders. Meanwhile, his foul-drawing is less impactful on Minnesota’s three-big rotation than it might be against some other teams; even with Naz Reid in early foul trouble, Minnesota could navigate around it in Game 2.

The switching has basically eliminated Jaxson Hayes from the series since there’s no lob threat, and you wonder when L.A. will say “uncle” and start Dorian Finney-Smith. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura have also struggled to make an impact.

That said, one adjustment that’s still possible for Minnesota is “switch to blitz,” or bringing a late double-team after the switch. Dončić has been forced into tough non-rim 2s at times, but he’s also getting to the rim even on the non-foul plays. I mentioned in my playoff preview that he had not been shooting at the basket much as a Laker, but 11 of his 24 2s in the series have been inside 5 feet. I’m not sure Minnesota can just grin and bear that, and I fear the numbers in Game 2 would have looked much worse had the Lakers not bricked so many 3s.

Bringing more help on Dončić risks bringing the Lakers’ role players back into the series; besides Reaves, their secondary players aren’t threats to shoot 3s off the dribble, but all of them except Hayes can reliably nail catch-and-shoots if Dončić is drawing and dealing.

This is one series where, sans injuries, personnel adjustments are unlikely. Minnesota is going to play the same eight players, and in any key moment, the Lakers are riding with five guys they trust, regardless of who starts. Thus, while Minnesota’s offensive fluctuations have been the story of the series so far, it’s likely that the Wolves’ ability to stay solid on defense against Dončić ultimately will determine who prevails. Tactically, what they’ve done so far is mostly working. But can they tweak it further to turn the screws tighter on Dončić without opening the floodgates for the others? I’ll be watching closely in Friday’s Game 3.

(Top photo of Luka Dončić and Timberwolves defenders: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

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