Zebra Sports NBA Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers Preview: 2025 NBA Playoffs series prediction, schedule, player to watch

Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers Preview: 2025 NBA Playoffs series prediction, schedule, player to watch



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Cleveland was elite and sitting on top of the East standings from the moment the season tipped off, a team that never let up and powered its way to 64 wins. Indiana was 16-18 in 2024, but when the calendar flipped to 2025, it went 34-14, climbing up to the No. 4 seed.

Now these two teams face off in the second round after Cleveland swept Miami out of the playoffs, while Indiana knocked out Milwaukee for the second straight year. Here’s a preview of this second-round showdown from the NBC Sports NBA crew.

When does the Pacers vs. Cavaliers begin?

Game 1 between the Pacers and Cavaliers will be played Sunday, May 4, in Cleveland, although the time is not yet formalized (it will be at 6 ET if there is a Game 7 in the Golden State vs. Houston series, if not, tip-off will be at 8 ET). The game will be broadcast on TNT.

Indiana vs. Cleveland Playoffs Schedule 2025

All times are Eastern (* = if necessary).
Game 1: Pacers at Cavaliers (Sun. May 4, TBD, TNT)
Game 2: Pacers at Cavaliers (Tue. May 6, TBD)
Game 3: Cavaliers at Pacers (Fri. May 9, TBD)
Game 4: Cavaliers at Pacers (Sun. May 11, TBD)
Game 5: Pacers at Cavaliers (Tue. May 13, TBD)*
Game 6: Cavaliers at Pacers (Thu. May 15, TBD)*
Game 7: Pacers at Cavaliers (Sun. May 18, TBD)*

Player to watch: Evan Mobley

The Defensive Player of the Year will be put to the test in the conference semifinals. He didn’t have any issues in the first round, but his matchup with Pascal Siakam will be a pivotal one in this series. Mobley averaged 19.0 points, 12.5 rebounds, 1.0 block and 2.0 three-pointers in two games against the Pacers this season, while Siakam averaged 20.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steal, 1.0 block and 1.0 triple per game in their matchups.

Mobley will need to get the job done on both ends of the floor for the Cavs to advance to the conference finals. He hit eight three-pointers during their sweep of the Heat in the first round. If he can continue to space the floor, driving lines will open up for Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and De’Andre Hunter. On defense, Siakam is a tough matchup, but Indiana’s offense is more complex than an individual matchup. During their first-round series with the Bucks, the Pacers assisted on 68.8 percent of their makes, which is the highest mark this postseason. Indiana’s Offensive Rating of 118.0 in the first round was only bested by Cleveland (136.2!), and it will take the DPOY to slow down Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers.
Noah Rubin, Rotoworld fantasy basketball analyst

Keys to watch for in Indiana vs. Cleveland

1) Can Pacers half-court defense hold up?

We know this series will be up-tempo — Indiana wants to get out and run, but Cleveland will be good with that. While the Cavaliers were a bottom-10 team in frequency of offensive plays started in transition, they were the most efficient team in the league on them, with a 131.3 offensive rating. Indiana was just behind them in fourth at 130.4 (and they were a top-10 team in pace).

What Indiana did at an elite level was keep other teams from running — their transition defense was impressive. No team allowed a lower percentage of opponent offense to start in transition. They ran on opponents but forced those teams to play in the half court against them.

The problem for Indiana — and the key to this series — is that the Pacers were also bottom 10 in the league in half-court defense, while the Cavaliers were best in the league with a historically good half-court offense. To be fair, after the calendar flipped to 2025 (when the Pacers started to play their best basketball), Indiana’s half-court defense improved to 14th in the league (middle of the pack). That’s still not good enough. This series comes down to Cleveland’s strength against Indiana’s weakness, and that’s not good for the Hoosier state.

Put simply: Can the Pacers get enough stops to give their offense a chance?

2) Who dominates the fourth quarter?

No matter how you slice it, these were the two best clutch teams in the NBA this season. The Cavaliers averaged the most points of any team in the league in the fourth quarter this season (29.8) but Indiana was close behind (29.3).

Indiana had the best clutch net rating in the league (20.9, and a 24-14 record) but the Cavaliers were second (18.1, going 26-12 in the clutch). There will be tight games in this series, which team can continue their elite clutch play?
—Kurt Helin, NBC Sports lead NBA writer

Predictions

Jay Croucher (NBC Sports Lead Betting Analyst): Cavaliers in 5

Indiana are the best team in the league at forcing opponents to play in the half court — but the Cavs have the #1 half-court offense. Cleveland’s elite bench should dominate Indiana’s suspect depth. Indiana should score, because Halliburton is that good, but their defense hasn’t shown the ceiling it will need to get to beat this Cavs team.

Vaughn Dalzell (NBC Sports Betting Analyst): Cavaliers in 6

The one thing Indiana has going for it in this series is tempo. If Cleveland wants to play fast and shoot triples, then Indiana will make this a series, but if the Cavs want to slow it down and dominate the paint, the Pacers may not have any answers unless Myles Turner balls out. The Cavs are 100 percent the better team, but I wouldn’t count Indiana out.

Kurt Helin: Cavaliers in 5

The Pacers are a good team about to face a better one — Cleveland can do everything Indiana wants to do, and do it better, and with superior players. It’s not Donovan Mitchell vs. Tyrese Haliburton at the top of the card, it’s Darius Garland vs. Andrew Nembhard, it’s Myles Turner vs. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.

The Cavaliers and Celtics have been a tier above everyone else in the East and that will play out in this series.

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