Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA Finals: Which team has the edge?

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For the seventh consecutive season, the NBA will have a different champion than the previous season. A team hasn’t repeated since Golden State won in 2017 and 2018.

For the sixth consecutive season, the NBA has does not even have a repeat finalist from the Eastern or Western conferences.

It’s the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals, and the series starts with Game 1 on Thursday in Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC). The Thunder can in their first championship since 1979 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics, and the Pacers can win their first title since joining the NBA from the ABA in 1976.

It’s a nod to small-market success. Or mid-market success. But definitely not your big markets or glamour markets that have been a part of most NBA Finals over the past two decades. One has to go back to the 2007 and the San Antonio-Cleveland series with comparable market sizes in the Finals.

And both teams are under the luxury tax.

Let’s look at matchups and who has the edge:

Thunder-Pacers series breakdown: Who has the edge?

Backcourt: Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Pacers’ Tyrese Haliburton

This is a fantastic matchup of points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won his first MVP this season, and Haliburton is two-time All-Star who has been sensational in the playoffs. They are different point guards. Gilgeous-Alexander is score-first who can pass, averaging 29.8 points, 6.9 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.6 steals and while shooting 47.1% from the field, and Haliburton is pass-first who can score, averaging 18.8 points, 9.8 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.4 steals, and shooting 46.6% from the field in the playoffs.

They won’t always be guarding each other. The Pacers like to force pace, and Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith will get opportunities to defend Gilgeous-Alexander, sometimes guarding him fullcourt.

Oklahoma City’s Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace provide backcourt depth. For Indiana, Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard, Nembhard, Nesmith give Haliburton support at the guard spot.

Edge: Thunder

NBA FINALS ODDS Who is favored in Thunder vs. Pacers?

Frontcourt: Thunder’s Jalen Williams vs. Pacers’ Pascal Siakam

Both teams boast frontcourt strength and versatility. They like to protect the paint and play on the perimeter. Williams and Siakam are All-Stars who work hard offensively and defensively — and they both made it to the NBA from mid-majors. Williams attended Santa Clara, and Siakam played at New Mexico State. That back-and-forth will be fascinating to watch.

Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, one of the savvier offseason signings, are a significant part of the Thunder’s offensive and defensive success.

Myles Turner, Obi Toppin and Thomas Bryant like to step outside and shoot 3s and play with force.

Edge: Thunder

Bench

Both teams are deep and will use 10 players if necessary. Rotations tighten this deep in the playoffs, so a player like Thomas Bryant might not get consistent from game to game but the Pacers know they can go to him in certain situations. Same with Oklahoma City’s Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams and Aaron Wiggins. Both coaches have faith in their reserves to deliver.

Edge: Thunder

Coaching: Rick Carlisle vs. Mark Daigneault

This is Pacers coach Rick Carlisle’s second trip to the Finals as head coach, and he won a title with the Dallas Mavericks in 2011. He is one of the game’s great coaches and was Coach of the Year in 2001-02. He has adapted to different styles, eras and personnel, and has a gifted offensive mind. He is 83-83 in 16 playoff appearances.

Mark Daigneault, the 2023-24 Coach of the Year, has done a fantastic job with the Thunder from 22 victories in his first season as head coach n 2020-21 to 24 to 40 to 57 to 68 victories this season. The Thunder had the No. 1 defense, No. 3 offense and No. 1 net rating and has helped developed a collegial spirit that works at this level. He is 18-8 in the playoffs over two seasons.

Edge: Pacers

3-point shooting

Both teams can make 3s — the Pacers are better, averaging 13.4 made 3s per game and shooting a 2025 playoff-best 40.1% from that distance. The Thunder are at 12.6 and 33.6%. Oklahoma City is tremendous at taking away the opponent’s offensive strength so it’s worth watching how they try to limit Indiana’s 3-point shooting.

Edge: Pacers

Bonus category: City life

Indianapolis and Oklahoma City are wonderful heartland cities — one more Midwest, the other more southwest. They are cities buoyed by agriculture, tech, medicine, oil and nearby universities. They both bring in a variety of musical acts, arts and entertainment and both have restaurants and chefs recognized by the James Beard Foundation.

Edge: Even

Overall edge: Pacers vs. Thunder

The Thunder were the best team in the regular season and have been the best team in the playoffs. The Pacers have been impressive the past two seasons, but this has seemed like Oklahoma City’s year since the first game in October.

Edge: Thunder

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