Is a Cavaliers-Celtics Eastern Conference finals inevitable? Our writers discuss

— By Shakeia Taylor, James L. Edwards III, Hunter Patterson and Eric Nehm

The East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers (61-15) and defending champion Boston Celtics (56-20) have been the class of the conference this season. Cleveland leads the East in point differential and has posted two 15-game win streaks. Boston is seeking to become the NBA’s first repeat champion since the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors and is on pace for 60 wins. If the Celtics reach that threshold, it would mark the first time the East has had multiple 60-win teams since the 2008-09 season, when these two franchises did it.

Behind Cleveland and Boston, the New York Knicks are sitting at No. 3, while the Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks are within three games of one another in the fourth through sixth spots. Could one of those teams threaten a potential Cavaliers-Celtics conference finals? The Athletic gathered four of its NBA writers to get their thoughts on the East’s premier teams, potential dark horse squads and how the postseason may play out.

Is it only a two-team race in the East? Why or why not should we believe in the Celtics and Cavs?

Taylor: Yes, but also no. I’ll explain. Right now, they are far and away the best teams in the East, and I believe they’ll be in the Eastern Conference finals, but I just don’t think we should deal in absolutes when it comes to the postseason. Anything could happen (injuries, etc.), and anybody could get hot and dangerous at the right time.

Edwards: The answer is yes, and that’s because we can only go off what we know so far. We know the Celtics and Cavs will be the only two teams in the East to finish in the top 10 in both offense and defense by the end of the regular season. We know the Celtics and Cavs, so far, are a combined 20-5 against the Knicks, Pistons, Pacers and Bucks. I know the playoffs are a different beast, but we can’t just ignore this type of dominance. The only thing that could change this outcome, for me, would be injuries.

Patterson: Simply put, yes. I’d really say, despite the Cavs’ record, the East is the Celtics’ to lose. Although Cleveland plowed through the regular season, I doubt this group’s consistency during the postseason.

Donovan Mitchell is a proven playoff problem, but outside of him, I’m not convinced Darius Garland or even Evan Mobley can pick up the offensive slack if Mitchell struggles. Boston, on the other hand, has essentially returned the same team that won a championship last season. The Celtics are primed for the postseason, and I can see them ousting the Cavs in six games at best.

Nehm: Those are the two teams I feel most confident can win three playoff series in the East, so I have to answer yes. The Bucks went 0-10 against the top three teams in the East, and the Knicks are winless against the Celtics and Cavaliers. So, while I think the Bucks and the Knicks both have the ability to upset the Cavaliers or the Celtics in one series, I couldn’t see either the Bucks or the Knicks beating both of those teams in consecutive series.

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Which hopeful East contender should the Cavaliers and Celtics fear most and why?

Taylor: Indiana. In addition to being unable to win in a normal way most of the time, the Pacers are clicking at the right time. Their success depends on Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, but they aren’t a team where one or two players are going to be able to carry them — they win as a unit. If everyone can stay in whatever zone they’re in right now, they could make a run.

Edwards: I’ll say the Knicks, even though New York has yet to beat either one of them. New York has the best starting lineup of the teams just below the Cavs and Celtics. Talent does matter. Jalen Brunson will be one of the two best players in any series he’s in. Karl-Anthony Towns will be a top-five player in any series. OG Anunoby has been playing at a ridiculous level for about a month. Josh Hart does stuff teams can’t really plan for. Mikal Bridges is talented and a wild card in terms of where he could rank individually in a series. New York has talent across the board and an experienced coach. I don’t think neither Boston nor Cleveland is worried, but the Knicks have proven talent these other teams don’t.

Patterson: In theme with my colleagues, I’ll go with the team I’m most familiar with: the Pistons.

Playoff series can often come down to which team has the best player. Cade Cunningham can be the best player on the floor against Cleveland. Against Boston, I’m not so sure. The Celtics have so many weapons from Jayson Tatum to Kristaps Porziņģis to Derrick White. Each of the aforementioned Boston players have notched multiple games with at least 30 points this season. The Celtics just have too much firepower and too many players who compete at an elite level on both ends.

Detroit, however, boasts the NBA’s sixth-best defense post-All-Star break. The Pistons’ defense has traveled in the final months of the regular season, and I don’t expect that to stop during the playoffs.

Nehm: A long-held adage of playoff basketball is the team with the best player will win the series. Because I covered Giannis Antetokounmpo averaging 33.9 points, 14.7 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game while losing to the Celtics in seven games in the 2022 playoffs, I know that adage is not always true, but I think it’s still a useful reference point in predicting playoff potential.

In my opinion, Antetokounmpo is the East’s best player. That doesn’t mean he will be the best player in a specific series — example: Kawhi Leonard outplaying Antetokounmpo in his first MVP season during the 2019 East finals — but there is a world where Antetokounmpo, who hasn’t been healthy in the playoffs since 2022, is simply too good for the Cavaliers or the Celtics, and the Bucks upset one of the East’s top two teams.

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Which hopeful East contender appears to be weakest and why?

Taylor: The Pistons. They’re unbothered and unafraid. They’re playing with a chip on their shoulder, and Detroit vs. Everybody is really deep within them. While a healthy and available Cade Cunningham is key, should they get past the first round, the experience factor is going to be huge here. They’re playing with house money considering they weren’t even supposed to be in the thick of things.

Edwards: I’ve got to go with the Bucks. They are 0-10 against the top-three seeds in the East. Antetokounmpo will be the best player in any series but, at a point, a team’s work — or lack thereof — in the regular season means something. He’s been an MVP candidate all year, and Milwaukee still hasn’t looked very threatening. Obviously, Damian Lillard’s health and availability is a real concern too. I’m just not sure there’s enough around Antetokounmpo, especially without Lillard, to feel comfortable saying they’ll win even a series.

Patterson: I must preface by saying, as it stands with the injury to Lillard, I don’t see the Bucks as contenders.

Considering the Knicks are third in the East and have the league’s fifth-best record, I’ll say New York. The Knicks, in the postseason, will go as far as Brunson can take them. It’s unfortunate that injuries limited Brunson during the playoffs last season, but he hasn’t played since March 6 against the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Knicks have other weapons in Towns, Bridges, Anunoby and even Hart. But I trust each of them much less without Brunson in the fold. Unless Brunson can come back and be the best version of himself in time for the start of the playoffs, I don’t see New York being for real.

Nehm: The Bucks. It is unclear whether Lillard will be available for the postseason. The Bucks went 7-9 in March, their worst month since starting the season with a 1-4 record in October, and have looked disjointed for much of the last few weeks. While other teams in the East appear to be peaking as the season comes to an end, the Bucks are doing the opposite.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks need to find their groove before the playoffs. (Benny Sieu / Imagn Images)

Which non-Celtics or non-Cavs player could swing the East playoffs the most dramatically?

Taylor: Antetokounmpo. If he’s healthy and the Bucks are relatively whole, he is a gamechanger. They could do it without Lillard, I believe, as long as the rest of the team finds their shot and lets Antetokounmpo do his thing.

Edwards: I’ll go with Antetokounmpo, despite what I said above. He’s one of the five best players in the world. He’s been relatively healthy and appears to have gotten through the regular season somewhat fresh. Because of how good he is and my respect for him as a competitor, I don’t believe it’s out of the realm of possibilities that he puts together one of the greatest individual postseason runs we’ve ever seen. I still don’t think that would be enough, especially without knowing Lillard’s availability, but if anyone could carry a team by himself, it’s the man built like a Greek God.

Patterson: Antetokounmpo is the easy answer for me. He’s the best player in the conference, and his career averages for points, rebounds and assists are all higher in the playoffs.

Even with Lillard sidelined, Antetokounmpo has proven during the regular season and postseason that he can win games on his own. That’s very much still the case.

Nehm: Antetokounmpo, obviously. But to give this section a bit more diversity, I’ll go with Tyrese Haliburton. Despite being injured throughout last season’s playoffs, Haliburton helped guide the Pacers to the conference finals through his playmaking and overall work conducting one of the league’s most explosive offenses. With him running the show, the Pacers can be a relentless offensive engine capable of scoring enough points in four games to win a seven-game series.

Is there a team currently in the East Play-In that should be feared?

Taylor: The Chicago Bulls are a wild card to me. Do I think they’re some incredible team? Absolutely not. Clearly not. But they’ve been winning — whether on purpose or just dumb luck — in some really fun ways. I wouldn’t rule them out entirely as a team who could come in and be a chaos agent even if they don’t make it very far due to the talent gap.

Edwards: No. The Atlanta Hawks have some good wins this regular season but have been so inconsistent. The Orlando Magic are a disaster offensively. The Bulls have been fun as of late, but they don’t have the talent to compete with either of the top teams. And the Miami Heat have just three wins against teams with a winning record since Feb. 1.

Patterson: I wouldn’t say they should be feared, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Magic make it into the playoffs and win a couple games in a first-round series. There’s not much else I expect from Orlando, though. While Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are two extremely talented young players, the Magic have been injury plagued all season.

I don’t see them having a chance against Boston. Against Cleveland, I could see Orlando winning a game or two. But either way, I don’t see the Magic making it out of the first round.

Nehm: While the Bulls, Hawks and Heat are all experienced Play-In participants, those three teams, as well as the Magic, should not be feared.

What’s your prediction for the East finals?

Taylor: The Celtics are better than they were last year. For a while, I was thinking Mitchell and Cleveland were going to challenge Boston for top dog in the East and win, but I think I have to take the Celtics over the Cavs in seven. Cleveland is going to make it hard.

Edwards: Boston beats Cleveland in six games. These have been the best two teams in the East by a country mile for a long time. Barring injuries, I just don’t see how anything changes that. The Celtics know what it takes come playoff time, and the Cavs, despite their disappointments in the postseason the previous years, appear to be a team on a mission ready and able to prove they’re for real.

Patterson: Barring any major injuries to both teams, I see the Cavaliers and Celtics matchup up in the East finals. The Celtics would be my bet to close the series out in no more than six games. I think a lot would have to go wrong for Boston for its unit to not make it to the NBA Finals again.

Nehm: The Celtics are more experienced than the Cavaliers in the biggest moments, but the Cavaliers have a deep roster and have been the NBA’s best offensive team this season. In the playoffs, you have to be able to score and maintain the necessary offensive diversity to score. With Kenny Atkinson getting more out of Garland and Mobley offensively while still getting a great season out of Mitchell, the Cavaliers have enough weapons to beat the Celtics’ switching defense. I’ll go with the Cavaliers in seven games.

(Top photo: David Richard / Imagn Images)

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