INDIANAPOLIS – The results of Friday’s games assured this year’s Pacers playoff run will begin the same way last year’s did — with a series against the Bucks.
The Pacers’ loss to the Magic assured they’ll be the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and the Bucks’ win over the Pistons assured them of the No. 5 seed. Last year, the Bucks were the No. 3 seed and the Pacers were No. 6 so the homecourt advantage will be flipped and the series will start in Indianapolis as opposed to Milwaukee.
The two teams’ rosters aren’t drastically different from the last year’s with the Pacers winning that series 4-2 on their way to the Eastern Conference finals. However the teams’ dynamics have changed enough for the character of this year’s series to be substantially different. The Bucks won three of four games between the two teams this season with the Pacers’ only victory coming on a dramatic four-point play by Tyrese Haliburton in March but even since that game Milwaukee has seen significant changes.
Here’s a look at how the Pacers and Bucks match up in some important areas.
Pacers vs. Bucks: Offense
The Pacers and Bucks are less explosive and less efficient than they were a year ago — at least statistically — but they still have top-15 offenses and still aren’t separated by much.
Last year’s Pacers averaged more points per game than all but five teams in NBA history and more than any team in the league in the past 40 years with 123.3 points per game. It was also the second-most efficient offense in the league behind the eventual champion Boston Celtics.
This year’s team didn’t put up video game numbers as frequently but still averaged 117.3 points per game and sits in seventh in the NBA in scoring. They’re also third in field goal percentage at .489, eighth in 3-point percentage at .370, fourth in effective field goal percentage at .564 and ninth in offensive efficiency at 115.6 points per 100 possessions.
Haliburton struggled throughout the season’s first month, but he’s been exceptional since the All-Star break, averaging 20.6 points and 11.0 assists per game against just 1.2 turnovers. All-Star forward Pascal Siakam has been the team’s rock and the best 1-on-1 isolation option. Center Myles Turner gives Haliburton a perfect ball-screen partner as a three-level shooter and forward Aaron Nesmith has been spacing the floor well since the break, shooting 45.2% from beyond the arc in that stretch.
The Bucks’ offense, of course, revolves around Giannis Antetokounmpo. After missing last season’s series with a calf strain, he’s mostly healthy heading into postseason and he’s in the midst of a vintage season. He’s averaging 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game and shooting 60.3% from the floor, dominating around the rim and also adding a mid-range jumper to his arsenal. He’ll be first-team All-NBA for a seventh straight season and will likely finish behind only Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the MVP balloting.
The Bucks have been playing without their other star, seven-time All-NBA guard Damian Lillard, who was diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis in his right calf, but they’ve been getting scoring from forward Kyle Kuzma, big man Brook Lopez and guards Kevin Porter Jr. and Gary Trent Jr. Antetokounmpo creates lots of gravity, which makes for open 3-point shots. They rank 12th in the NBA scoring with 115.2 points per game, fifth in field goal percentage at .485 and second in 3-point percentage at .385. They’re 11th in offensive efficiency at 114.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pacers vs. Bucks: Defense
The Bucks have two tremendous back-line defenders in Antetokounmpo and Lopez who have seven All-Defensive team selections between them. They have very capable perimeter defenders as well in wings Taurean Prince and Andre Jackson as well as Porter and Trent.
The Bucks are not an elite defensive unit, but they rank in the top 15 in most important categories. They rank 11th in defensive rating at 112.6 points allowed per 100 possessions and 13th in scoring defense, allowing 112.8 points per game. They are hard to score on in the paint, holding teams to 47.0 points per game there, and they’re fifth in the league against the 3, holding teams to 35.2% shooting from beyond the arc.
The Pacers’ hope this offseason was to crawl out of the cellar of most defensive categories and become a top half defensive team, and they managed to pull that off. They’re 15th in the league in defensive rating, allowing 113.6 points per 100 possessions after finishing 24th last season. The improvement has been largely driven by full-court pressure and the causing of turnovers, as the Pacers rank 10th in the league in steals and 12th in opponent’s turnovers and sixth in both categories since Jan. 1. Guard Andrew Nembhard has defended at the point of attack well enough to earn fringe All-Defense consideration. Center Myles Turner is back at 2.0 blocks per game and ranks second in the NBA in the category among qualifying players.
Pacers vs. Bucks: Depth
The Pacers’ bench hasn’t been as effective as it was a year ago when it led the league in scoring and field goal percentage. Their subs lead the league in field goal percentage again this season but they’re ninth in scoring and 20th in 3-point field goal percentage and they simply haven’t been as cohesive as a unit as they were a year ago.
That being said, they still have the two players who anchored last year’s bench in the postseason in T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin who were two of the top scorers among all subs in the NBA playoffs. They also have Bennedict Mathurin, who has been itching for his first postseason after missing last year’s with a torn labrum.
The Bucks rank 13th in the league in bench scoring, but with Trent, Porter and A.J. Green coming off the bench and shooting 40% from beyond the arc, they have the best 3-point shooting bench in the NBA. They’re also bringing back Bobby Portis after a lengthy league suspension and at his best he’s one of the best all-around reserves in the game.
Pacers vs. Bucks: Coaching
Rick Carlisle ranks 11th on the all-time coaching wins list and Doc Rivers ranks seventh. Rivers has taken five franchises to the postseason. Carlisle has taken three, though he’s doing it with the Pacers a second time. They each have a championship under their belt with Rivers having won the 2007-08 title with the Celtics and Carlisle having won the 2010-11 title with the Mavericks.
The two coaches have proven themselves adaptable over time. Both have won with defensive-oriented teams and offensive-oriented teams There are coaches with more sterling records and they’ve both had seasons that ended in disappointment and tenures that ended with partings of ways. But they’re used to postseason play and know what it takes to win there. Carlisle won the last playoff series but Rivers will be working with a motivated team for that reason.
