Denver’s Nikola Jokic might end the season averaging a 30-point triple-double. His numbers, going into the final week: 30 points, 12.8 rebounds and 10.2 assists per game. That is a combination of stats never previously seen in NBA history.
And he probably isn’t going to be MVP.
It is time for the annual debate and addressing the annual problem: What makes an MVP? There is no official definition. If having the best stats makes one the best player, then it should be Jokic. If it’s the best player on the best team, then it should be — and probably will be — Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
It’ll be one of those two, meaning it’s certain that the MVP will be an international player for a seventh consecutive season. Gilgeous-Alexander could be the second Canadian to win after two-time recipient Steve Nash; Jokic, of Serbia, has won three of the last four MVPs, with Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece) winning twice and Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid (a native of Cameroon) winning once in this seven-year span.
The numbers for Gilgeous-Alexander: 32.6 points, 5 rebounds, 6.4 assists per game on 52% shooting. The only player to do all that in a season: Michael Jordan, who did it twice, first in 1988-89 then again in 1989-90.
“We always say the leader is the person doing the right thing, and that makes leadership accessible to everybody and entitled to no one,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. “And he walks the walk. He’s a great worker. He’s built self-confidence that is now contagious … he’s fully himself. He walks the walk day after day. It’s a beautiful thing.”
Jokic, assuming his assist numbers don’t plummet this week, will be the third player to finish a season averaging a triple-double. Russell Westbrook did it four times and Oscar Robertson did it once. And Jokic’s numbers are so good that even Minnesota’s Nickeil Alexander-Walker — who happens to be Gilgeous-Alexander’s cousin — even had to acknowledge that the race is a legitimate one.
“He’s making a good run for MVP,” Alexander-Walker told reporters after Minnesota survived Jokic’s 61-point, 10-rebound, 10-assist night for a 140-139 win over the Nuggets last week. “You guys know who I got, but he’s making it tough, for sure. Star player, always making the right play. Gotta respect it. Gotta tip my hat to him.”
There will be an oft-used argument for either player in the final days of the season and before the MVP ballots get sent back to the league office for counting: “How can someone average those numbers and not win MVP?”
It’s not a good argument. Here’s why. In Westbrook’s four triple-double seasons, he won MVP once. Robertson didn’t win MVP in his triple-double season. And when Jordan had his seasons of averaging 32, 5 and 6 while shooting at least 50%, he didn’t win MVP in either of them. (It should be noted that in 1963-64, Robertson won MVP averaging 31.4 points, 11 assists and 9.9 rebounds per game, meaning he was seven total rebounds shy of averaging a triple-double.)
Imagine that. Some of the greatest, and most unique, statistical seasons in NBA history didn’t net an MVP award. And it’s going to happen again this year, barring the unlikely event of Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander finishing tied in the balloting.
Odds are, that won’t happen. BetMGM Sportsbook says Gilgeous-Alexander is a huge favorite to win — his odds are listed at -3000, with Jokic at +1000.
Rookie of the year
It looks like it’ll be back-to-back rookie of the year wins for the San Antonio Spurs.
Victor Wembanyama won it last year and this year, it’s Stephon Castle (-1600) the favorite over Atlanta’s Zaccharie Risacher (+1000) and Washington’s Alex Sarr (+1300).
Castle leads rookies in points per game and is finishing the season with a flourish, which might resonate even further with voters — his closing argument of sorts.
Defensive player of the year
Had he not been forced to the sideline by deep vein thrombosis, Wembanyama was probably a lock to win this award.
It might be a wide-open race now with Golden State’s Draymond Green (-500) favored over Cleveland’s Evan Mobley (+400) and Oklahoma City’s Lugentz Dort (+600).
Expect Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels, an absolute steals machine, to get some votes as well. He’s a longshot at +4000 according to BetMGM.
Most improved player
This is where Daniels is the favorite, a sizable one (-625) over Detroit’s Cade Cunningham (+350). One would think that the Los Angeles Clippers’ Ivica Zubac and Miami’s Tyler Herro — both long shots in terms of betting odds — would get some consideration as well.
Cunningham should be a lock for All-NBA, which is probably his preference anyway.
Coach of the year
Like MVP, there might not be a wrong choice atop the ballot and serious arguments can be made for Cleveland’s Kenny Atkinson (led Cavs to top spot in East in Year 1 of his time there), Detroit’s J.B. Bickerstaff (led Pistons to the playoffs in Year 1 of his time there) and Daigneault, whose Thunder have been elite all season.
It’ll likely come down to Atkinson and Bickerstaff. The Cavs were a second-round team last year under Bickerstaff, so it’s no surprise that they’re good — though No. 1-seed-type good might have been a surprise. And Detroit has been one of the league’s feel-good stories all year.
This could be a year where the award is essentially split. A panel of writers and broadcasters vote on the official NBA award, but the National Basketball Coaches Association has its own award voted on by head coaches — and the media vote and coaches vote haven’t always come out the same way.
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